What is Tolley Dean's strike rate?

Tolley Dean has won 58 of 672 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tolley Dean do best at?

Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 88 rides (14.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Tolley Dean ride most for?

Derek Shaw, with 99 rides since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (11.1%).

What is Tolley Dean's Fair A/E?

1.10, from 666 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Tolley Dean

672 rides in the lifetime window · 341 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Oct 2009 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

58–672

Wins / Runs

8.6%

Strike rate

n=672

136 (20%)

Placed

1.10

Fair A/E

n=666 · 0.92 incl. margin

−97.07

£1 level stake

n=671 at SP · −14.5%

£304k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 340 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (67 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 672 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jan–Feb Derek Shaw: 11.1% from 99 LTO winners: 16.4% Claiming: 9.5%

The read

The record is strongest at Kempton (AW) (14.8%, n=88), clear of the rider's 8.6% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 16.4% (n=67, Fair A/E 1.20), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.3% (n=76, Fair A/E 0.97). Derek Shaw supplied 15% of the rides and edges the rider's average (11.1% vs 8.6%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well over 1m5f – 2m (21.1%, n=38) and off a 0-7-day break (16.5%, n=79). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 34 rides, 8.6pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record was Royal Envoy (IRE) — 5 wins from 19 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.6% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

6.9%−1.7

n=305 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −149.30

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

16.4%+7.8

n=67 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +6.32

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.3%−3.3

n=76 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −43.25

When favourite

34.5%

n=29 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +0.02

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

9.5%+0.9

n=484 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −7.19

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.8%−1.8

n=118 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −27.17

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.6

n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 1m5f – 2m 21.1% vs 8.6% · n=38

Off a 0-7-day break 16.5% vs 8.6% · n=79

On last-time-out winners 16.4% vs 8.6% · n=67

With C&D winners 15.3% vs 8.6% · n=118

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 8.6% · n=34

At Kempton (AW) 14.8% vs 8.6% · n=88

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 352 38 10.8% −87.05

Good to Firm 116 5 4.3% +69.33

Good 96 7 7.3% −45.55

Good to Soft 53 5 9.4% +6.00

Soft 28 2 7.1% −17.80

Firm 22 0 0% −22.00

Heavy 5 1 20% +0.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 106 9 8.5% −22.50

Kempton (AW) 88 13 14.8% −3.25

Southwell (AW) 77 6 7.8% −45.38

Lingfield (AW) 60 6 10% −30.42

Bath 46 3 6.5% −12.00

Warwick 29 1 3.4% −24.67

Yarmouth 24 3 12.5% −9.38

Chelmsford (AW) 21 4 19% +14.50

Salisbury 17 1 5.9% +134.00

Windsor 17 1 5.9% −8.50

Brighton 16 0 0% −16.00

Nottingham 14 0 0% −14.00

Redcar 12 2 16.7% −0.17

Folkestone 12 2 16.7% −1.80

Doncaster 12 1 8.3% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 275 21 7.6% −102.51

Class 5 220 19 8.6% +41.33

Class 4 95 12 12.6% +13.91

Class 3 37 5 13.5% −10.30

Class 2 27 1 3.7% −22.50

Class 7 12 0 0% −12.00

Class 1 5 0 0% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 41 11 26.8% 1.06 −7.98

2nd–3rd fav 108 20 18.5% 1.24 +3.91

4th–6th fav 207 19 9.2% 1.20 −44.50

7th+ in betting 315 8 2.5% 0.76 −48.50

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Royal Envoy (IRE) 19 5 8 13 Jul 09

Ebraam (USA) 18 2 5 2 Aug 09

Gallantry (GB) 15 3 5 11 May 09

Soba Jones (GB) 9 3 3 10 Feb 09

Leftontheshelf (IRE) 8 1 6 14 Jul 09

Ardent Prince (GB) 8 0 2 9 Jan 09

Imperial Echo (USA) 8 1 1 29 Nov 08

Bermondsey Bob (IRE) 7 1 1 14 May 09

Stand Guard (GB) 7 2 2 13 May 09

Elusive Dreams (USA) 7 0 2 24 Mar 09

Right Option (IRE) 7 2 4 18 Feb 09

Libre (GB) 6 0 2 12 Sep 09

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 341 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1218108369881103

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDerek Shaw

15% of all rides
11.1% SR · A/E 1.13

TrainerRWSR£1

Derek Shaw 99 11 11.1% −27.00

John Spearing 66 4 6.1% +103.50

S Parr 58 5 8.6% −11.97

Paul Howling 48 7 14.6% +2.66

Alan McCabe 36 4 11.1% −15.00

Tony Carroll 34 2 5.9% −15.00

Milton Bradley 31 1 3.2% −14.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

103

Archived wins

£538k

Prize money

2008

Best season · 46 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ebraam (USA) — arenaleisureplc.Com Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Feb 2008 · Class 2

£9,971

Sally's Dilemma (GB) — williamhillpoker.com Brocklesby Conditions Stakes Doncaster · Mar 2008 · Class 4

£9,716

Ebraam (USA) — Wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Feb 2009 · Class 3

£9,462

Notable horses

Royal Envoy (IRE) Gallantry (GB) Stamford Blue (GB) Night Prospector (GB) Soba Jones (GB) Misaro (GER)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Red Ransom (USA) 8% · 2–25

Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,290 runs since 2008 (303 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 13% from 687.

Royal Applause (GB) 23.8% · 5–21

Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.

Green Desert (USA) 20% · 3–15

Progeny have won 11% of 3,324 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.8% from 269. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.4% from 147.

Kyllachy (GB) 0% · 0–14

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Namid (GB) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,102 runs since 2008 (276 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.8% from 119.

Tobougg (IRE) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 8.5% of 6,096 runs since 2008 (464 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,357 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,357 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 21 October 2009.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

21 Oct 09 Bath Petite Mambo (GB)T: William de Best-Turner John Smith's Maiden Stakes (Div 1)Class 5 · 8f · Good · 15 ran 12th 200/1

15 Oct 09 Nottingham Greek Secret (GB)T: Jimmy O'Reilly Moores Electrical HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Soft · 16 ran 16th 28/1

01 Oct 09 Newmarket Owls Fc (IRE)T: Michael Chapman Directa Signs Noel Murless Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 14f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 5th 200/1

26 Sep 09 Haydock Dubara Reef (IRE)T: Paul Green E.B.F. Julie Fitzpatrick Maiden Stakes (C&G)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 8th 66/1

26 Sep 09 Haydock Fine Lace (IRE)T: Dominic Ffrench Davis E.b.f. The Millstone Pub Reopens For Business Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 7th 66/1

21 Sep 09 Kempton (AW) Ashes Summer (IRE)T: Paul Webber Sparks Charity Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 4 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 15/2

18 Sep 09 Wolverhampton (AW) Jonnie Skull (IRE)T: Phil McEntee Williamhill.com/bonus25 - Quote Bonus25 HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 6/1

18 Sep 09 Wolverhampton (AW) Lucky Mellor (GB)T: Dean Ivory Williamhill.com/bonus25 - Get 25 Free Bet Nursery HandicapClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 13/2

17 Sep 09 Pontefract Lady Bucket (GB)T: Paul Green Toteswinger Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 9th 100/1

12 Sep 09 Wolverhampton (AW) Libre (GB)T: F Jordan Williamhill.com/bonus25 - Bingo Bonanzas HandicapClass 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 12/1

07 Sep 09 Bath Namir (IRE)T: James Evans Freebets.co.uk Las Vegas Party HandicapClass 5 · 5.5f · Good · 15 ran 12th 14/1

07 Sep 09 Bath Ashes Summer (IRE)T: Paul Webber Rita Simcox Birthday Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 11.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 40/1

07 Sep 09 Bath Wivny (USA)T: James Evans Evening Post Jobsite Maiden StakesClass 5 · 5.5f · Good · 10 ran 10th 100/1

04 Sep 09 Chepstow Libre (GB)T: F Jordan freebets.co.uk Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 7/1

04 Sep 09 Chepstow La Belle Joannie (GB)T: Sean Curran Western Daily Press Selling StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 2nd 20/1

01 Sep 09 Leicester Drews Lane (GB)T: Bill Turner Rancliffe Selling StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 14th 40/1

28 Aug 09 Newcastle The Name Is Frank (GB)T: Mark Gillard John Smith's HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good To Firm · 12 ran 3rd 7/1

27 Aug 09 Lingfield Bertie Bacon (GB)T: Bill Turner Felbridge Selling StakesClass 6 · 9f · Firm · 13 ran 13th 66/1

26 Aug 09 Warwick Walragnek (GB)T: John O'Shea Great Offers At Warwickracecourse.co.uk Selling StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 80/1

24 Aug 09 Windsor Press To Reset (GB)T: Bill Turner Summer Celebration With Go West 29th August Selling StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 3rd 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tolley Dean's strike rate?: Tolley Dean has won 58 of 672 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tolley Dean do best at?: Kempton (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 88 rides (14.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Tolley Dean ride most for?: Derek Shaw, with 99 rides since 2008 — 15% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (11.1%).
What is Tolley Dean's Fair A/E?: 1.10, from 666 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.