No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
8–166
Wins / Runs
4.8%
Strike rate
n=166
22 (13%)
Placed
0.95
Fair A/E
n=165 · 0.80 incl. margin
−60.75
£1 level stake
n=166 at SP · −36.6%
£29,615
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
6.9%
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95). With a claiming rider up the record reads 9% (80 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 166 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceJames O'Reilly: 10.4% from 67Claiming riders: 8.8%
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 8.8% (n=80, Fair A/E 1.48). James O'Reilly rode 40% of the entries and beats the yard's average (10.4% vs 4.8%, A/E 1.61) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well at trips under 6f (11.4%, n=44) and on Good to Firm going (8.3%, n=60). The market has consistently overbet the yard over 6f – 7f: Fair A/E 0.39 across 98 runners (2% strike, −58.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The stable star of the record was Greek Secret (GB) — 6 wins from 53 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.8%−2.0
n=36 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −19.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.8
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.8
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.8
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.8%+4.0
n=80 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +8.25
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At trips under 6f11.4% vs 4.8% · n=44
With James O'Reilly10.4% vs 4.8% · n=67
With a new jockey booking0% vs 4.8% · n=85
With claiming riders up8.8% vs 4.8% · n=80
On Good to Firm going8.3% vs 4.8% · n=60
Over 6f – 7f2% vs 4.8% · n=98
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm6058.3%−11.75
Standard (AW)5223.8%−24.00
Good2613.8%+3.00
Good to Soft1700%−17.00
Soft700%−7.00
Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Southwell (AW)2400%−24.00
Redcar1900%−19.00
Beverley1815.6%−1.00
Catterick1119.1%+18.00
Doncaster1119.1%+4.00
Wolverhampton (AW)1000%−10.00
Pontefract1000%−10.00
Kempton (AW)9111.1%+2.00
Thirsk800%−8.00
Lingfield (AW)8112.5%+9.00
Nottingham8112.5%−4.25
Newcastle600%−6.00
Yarmouth5240%+7.50
Ripon400%−4.00
Carlisle400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 68655.8%−10.50
Class 54912%−45.25
Class 42114.8%−6.00
Class 2400%−4.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 72150%+9.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4125%1.11−0.25
2nd–3rd fav1516.7%0.51−9.50
4th–6th fav2129.5%1.31+1.00
7th+ in betting12643.2%0.99−52.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f9822%−58.00
Under 6f44511.4%+6.25
1m – 1m1f1417.1%+1.00
1m2f – 1m4f800%−8.00
1m5f – 2m200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20087411.4%−63.00
20093438.8%+29.00
20105846.9%−26.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps13175.3%−36.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners6723%−52.25
14-16 runners4025%+6.00
8-10 runners31412.9%+13.50
17+ runners1800%−18.00
5-7 runners900%−9.00
2-4 runners100%−1.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 23 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 23 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Ryan (3) and Tim Easterby (2); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
14 have since run for another yard, most often for Ollie Pears (3) and Paul Midgley (3); 9 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·000415600013
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
20
Archived wins
£83,748
Prize money
2006
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Toto Skyllachy (GB) — Doncaster Racecourse Book Your Christmas Party Handicap (Rnd) Doncaster · Jun 2010 · Class 4
£4,533
Mighty Moon (GB) — NH Season Starts 29th November Handicap Catterick · Oct 2006 · Class 5
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,548 runs since 2008 (146 horses).
Choisir (AUS)0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Tagula (IRE)4% · 1–25
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,557 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.
Minardi (USA)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 1.9% of 105 runs since 2008 (7 horses).
Kyllachy (GB)12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.
Bertolini (USA)28.6% · 2–7
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 449 · newest first
The latest 50 of 449 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 6 November 2010.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Jimmy O'Reilly's strike rate?
Jimmy O'Reilly has won 8 of 166 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.8% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Jimmy O'Reilly?
James O'Reilly, with 67 runners since 2008 — 40% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (10.4%).
What is Jimmy O'Reilly's Fair A/E?
0.95, from 165 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Jimmy O'Reilly·SR 4.8%·A/E 0.95
KTB
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