1:25 Doncaster
A competitive 16-runner Class 3 handicap over 5f at Doncaster on good ground forms part of the Land Of Lights Festival card. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Adrestia and Maelstrom separated by just a single point, while several others sit in the low-to-mid 50s. Most of the field are rated fair performers on balance, many with previous success at the minimum trip, and the race features a notable drop in class for a couple alongside step-up-in-class concerns for others.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, which could lead to the leaders coming back to the field late on. This strong pace is likely to favour horses that are held up and produce their effort from off the pace, several of which feature among the principals. The key question is whether the early speed will collapse sufficiently in the closing stages to allow the hold-up performers to close with maximum effect from their wide or inside draws.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Adrestia KTB Selection65/100
Adrestia is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip but has been well below form on her last four starts. She makes her first visit to Doncaster from stall 14 while wearing headgear for the first time. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard has a solid 19% strike rate here and Oisin Murphy is 16% from 322 rides at the track. As a usual hold-up performer she is well suited by the expected strong pace that could collapse late. She is dropping in class and the trainer-jockey combination shows a positive 17/46 (37%) record with an A/E of 1.36 and +£18.05 LSP. Her record on good ground reads one win from eight starts with three places.
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2Maelstrom64/100
Maelstrom is a fair performer who arrives in decent form after two wins at this trip. He has a strong record on good ground with three wins from four starts and the draw in stall one could be an advantage. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here while the jockey has shown a solid 11% from limited rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the likely strong pace. He is dropping in class and the trainer-jockey partnership shows 6/36 (17%) with an A/E of 1.22 and +£8.00 LSP. Recent form of 0-8511 underlines his current wellbeing.
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3Novelette60/100
Novelette is a fair performer who has already won twice over this trip. She has shown solid form on good ground with two wins from five runs and holds an each-way chance from a wide draw if she can reproduce her best. The Crisford yard and Harry Davies both have above-average records at Doncaster. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, she should appreciate the strong pace that is forecast. She is stepping up in class and the trainer-jockey record stands at 61/375 (16%) with an A/E of 0.88. Recent form reads 2115-5.
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4Novello Lad54/100
Novello Lad is a fair performer who has won three times at this track from 11 runs and looks well suited by the drop back to 5f having been placed without winning at the trip. Recent form of 311800 shows ability but also plenty of poor efforts, while the yard's modest 6% strike rate at Doncaster adds a negative. Jockey has an 8% record here from 310 rides. Usually held up with medium confidence, he should be suited by the race shape. He has a course record of three wins from 11 starts and his going record on good is one win from six with four places.
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5Fortification54/100
Fortification is a fair 3-year-old with a solid career record that includes two wins over today's 5f trip. He has shown his best form on good ground, recording one win and four places from six runs. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at Doncaster is offset by the jockey's stronger 10% record at the track, though the wide draw in stall 16 adds a negative. Usually held up with high confidence, he is well suited by the expected strong pace. Recent form of 143074 reflects a mixed but capable profile at this level.
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6The Man51/100
The Man is a fair performer who has dropped in the weights but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He has won over this trip in the past yet looks unsuited by good ground on the balance of his five runs. Usually held up, the trainer and jockey both have established records here though neither figure stands out.
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7Wheels Of Fire51/100
Wheels Of Fire is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from nine attempts and handles good ground well with two wins and four places from nine runs. Only modest form on his one previous visit to Doncaster when finishing fifth and he has been a bit in and out this year. Usually held up, the trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at the track.
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8Ancient State50/100
Ancient State is a fair performer who has won four times over this trip and looks suited by good ground having scored once from two starts on it. He has placed here before without winning and his recent form of 511552 shows he can mix it at this level. Usually held up, the trainer has a 0% strike-rate from eight runs at Doncaster while the jockey operates at a 15% strike-rate from 165 rides here.
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9Henrythenate49/100
Henrythenate is a fair performer who has won four times at this trip from 16 attempts. Recent form has been patchy and he has never placed from five runs on good ground. Usually held up, the trainer holds a modest 5% strike rate here from 21 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first Doncaster winner from 22 rides.
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10Hypnotised49/100
Hypnotised is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has already won over this trip and showed useful placed form when second on his last two starts. Usually held up, the yard has a solid 13% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 8% from a big sample.
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11Paddy's Day48/100
Paddy's Day is a fair handicapper who has been placed on all three visits to Doncaster and remains competitive on good ground. He has won eight times at this trip but his recent form has been patchy and he is now 0-13 on his last 13 starts. A front-runner, the yard's modest record here adds a further negative.
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12Canon's House48/100
Canon's House is a fair performer who has won three times at this trip from 18 attempts and shown his best form on good ground with two wins and two places from eight starts. He arrives in modest recent form and has a career-high mark to overcome from stall 8. A front-runner, the Easterby yard and Shane Gray both operate at a 6% strike rate at Doncaster from sizeable samples.
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13Jer Batt45/100
Jer Batt is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track without winning. He has a solid record at today's trip with three wins from 31 starts and has handled good ground reasonably well with one win and six places from 12 runs. Usually held up, the trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Doncaster is a negative while the jockey's 10% record here is closer to average.
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14Venture Capital45/100
Venture Capital is a fair performer who has won over this trip but is dropping back from 6f today after a string of ordinary efforts. Has course winning form here from three runs and acts on good ground with two wins from 12 starts. Usually held up, the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Doncaster is offset by the jockey's solid 12% record at the track.
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15Equity Law42/100
Equity Law is a fair performer with a solid record at this trip, including five wins from 26 starts, and he acts well on good ground with four wins and six places from 14 runs. He has been in decent form of late with two wins in his last four outings, though his sole visit to Doncaster resulted in a modest fifth. A front-runner, the yard has a modest 7% strike-rate here from a huge sample while the jockey is even quieter at 4% from 78 rides.
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16Changeofmind41/100
Changeofmind is a fair performer who has run 25 times in the last year and shown bits and pieces without winning since last summer. Has course experience but could only manage sixth here on his sole visit and his record on good ground is modest with just one win from eight starts. Usually held up, the trainer and jockey both operate at low strike rates at Doncaster.
KTB verdict
Adrestia is the KTB Selection. She remains a useful performer on her day despite a recent lull in form, and the first-time headgear combined with a drop in class from the Crisford yard offers hope that she can bounce back. Her hold-up style is ideally suited to the strong pace that is anticipated, and the trainer-jockey combination has a strong record. Main dangers are Maelstrom, who arrives in good heart with an excellent record on good ground and a favourable low draw, and Novelette, who can be competitive if returning to her best for the same yard from stall 11. Novello Lad's course record and Fortification's trip suitability also make them respected threats in a race where the late closers could dominate if the front-runners overdo it.
KTB Selection Adrestia
This is the narrative read of the 1:25 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first visit to Doncaster while wearing headgear for the first time?
Adrestia
Which runners are dropping in class for this race?
Adrestia, Maelstrom, The Man and Jer Batt
Which horse has won three times at this track from 11 runs?
Novello Lad
Which front-runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Paddy's Day, Canon's House and Equity Law
Which horse has shown consistent placed form at Doncaster without winning?
Jer Batt
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