3:39 Leicester
This Class 5 6f handicap at Leicester on good to soft ground features a field of 18 modest performers, many of whom are stepping up in class or carry unknowns regarding the surface and the track. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with That's Random heading the list on 60, followed closely by Dashing Dick on 57 and Sargent Dennis on 56. Overall the numbers point to a competitive race in which course connections, proven ability on the ground and a favourable run style could prove decisive given the strong pace anticipated.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and confidence in that assessment is high, suggesting the leaders could go hard early and the race may collapse late. Fenlander, Spirit of Jenny and Bay Breeze are all inclined to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure a searching test. This setup is likely to favour hold-up horses that can produce their effort from off the pace, posing the key question of whether any of the closers can time their run perfectly once the front-runners tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1That's Random KTB Selection60/100
That's Random is a modest performer who has shown steady improvement and landed a win over this trip on his third start. Drawn in stall 1 he has course connections in his favour. Trainer Harry Charlton has a strong 56% strike rate at Leicester from nine runs while Lewis Edmunds takes the ride. The trainer and jockey combination shows 17 wins from 107 rides for a 16% strike rate and an A/E of 0.84. Stepping up in class he is held up, usually producing his effort late though with limited evidence and low confidence in that assessment. He is unproven on good to soft ground and has no course form on record.
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2Dashing Dick57/100
Dashing Dick is a modest performer who has won over this trip in the past but is now on a long losing run and has been well held in most recent starts. Leicester suits with a previous course win from eight runs and the trainer posts a solid 13% strike-rate here. Acts on good to soft ground with two wins from four starts on it. The trainer and jockey show 6 wins from 40 rides for a 15% strike rate and an A/E of 1.12. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment he steps up in class from a draw of 9.
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3Sargent Dennis56/100
Sargent Dennis is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win over this trip but has also run poorly on several occasions. Trainer Jack Channon has a solid 22% strike rate from 18 runs at Leicester while David Probert is the jockey. Unproven on good to soft ground and making first appearance here so plenty of unknowns despite the high data confidence. The trainer and jockey combination records 21 wins from 140 rides for a 15% strike rate and an A/E of 1.05. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment from a draw of 12 he steps up in class.
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4Fenlander52/100
Fenlander is a modest performer who has won twice at Leicester from six runs and has scored three times at this trip. Recent form is patchy with a best of third on his last visit here but he showed little on good to soft ground the only time he tried it. The trainer remains winless from 21 runners at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in that assessment he steps up in class from a draw of 2. The trainer and jockey show 1 win from 20 rides for a 5% strike rate and an A/E of 0.54 while the course record stands at two wins from six starts.
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5HK Fourteen52/100
HK Fourteen is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Has run twice at Leicester without placing and is 0-3 on good to soft ground. Steps up to a trip he has won at before though the recent form leaves him with plenty to find. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment from a draw of 6. The trainer and jockey combination shows 64 wins from 465 rides for a 14% strike rate and an A/E of 1.02 while the trainer records a 9% strike rate at Leicester from 697 runs.
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6Irish Nectar51/100
Irish Nectar is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing in the first four on three of his last four starts. He has won over today's trip and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground. Trainer Michael Herrington has a solid 18% strike rate here from 40 runs while Dylan Hogan takes the ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment.
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7Ziggy's Condor49/100
Ziggy's Condor is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and is drawn wide in stall 16. He showed a bit more when fourth over course and distance on his only run here and has a win and a place from three runs on good to soft. Dropping back to 6f is probably no bad thing given three career wins at the trip though the trainer remains winless from 11 runners at Leicester. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment.
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8Trust Amy49/100
Trust Amy is a modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs this year and was well held when sixth on her only previous visit to Leicester. She has won on good to soft ground and at this trip, which are the main positives in her favour. Trainer strikes at 8% here from 37 runs while Rob Hornby has a modest record at the track. Typically settles in midfield with high confidence in that assessment.
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9Rascal Recknell48/100
Rascal Recknell is a modest performer who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts after an early-season second. First run at Leicester and unproven on good to soft ground add unknowns while the wide draw in stall 13 is far from ideal over 6f. Trainer has a solid 9% strike rate here from a large sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment.
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10Try Storm Cat47/100
Try Storm Cat is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from five attempts. Has struggled since early season promise with a string of lesser efforts and only one placed finish on good to soft ground from a single try. Trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate here from 35 runs while this is the colt's first visit to Leicester. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment.
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11Cairdeas46/100
Cairdeas is a modest performer with a consistent but winless record this year. Has placed on good to soft and at today's trip though remains without a victory in either, and the first run at Leicester adds an unknown. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate here from 77 runs offers little encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment.
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12Spirit of Jenny45/100
Spirit of Jenny is a modest performer who has shown her best form at this track with two placed efforts from two runs here. She has a solid recent record at this trip including a win and is drawn nicely in stall 4. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Leicester and her complete lack of experience on good to soft ground both count against her. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence in that assessment.
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13Bay Breeze44/100
Bay Breeze is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his better side when winning two of his last three starts. Has a bit of course experience yet has never been placed in three runs here and his record on good to soft is only ordinary. Trainer operates at a 9% strike rate at Leicester from a big sample. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence in that assessment.
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14Tiriac43/100
Tiriac is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year and is now drawn widest in a big field. Has placed once in a single run at Leicester and holds a win on good to soft, though his overall record at today's trip is ordinary. Trainer's modest strike rate at the track adds little encouragement. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment.
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15Lamlash Bay41/100
Lamlash Bay is a modest performer who has won twice from nine starts including at this trip. Has run well on good to soft but only once and is drawn widest of all today. The Easterbys have a modest 7% strike rate here from 30 runs while Joanna Mason also rides with limited course experience. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment.
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16Moonlight Melody40/100
Moonlight Melody is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in six runs this year, with form figures of 544364 suggesting she struggles to land the big one at this level. Drawn widest in stall 14 which is far from ideal over 6f here, and she has failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at today's trip. Trainer Donald McCain has an 11% strike rate from 111 runs at Leicester. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence in that assessment while dropping in class.
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17Spacewoman39/100
Spacewoman is a modest performer who has shown enough at this trip to win once from eight attempts. She has placed once from two runs at Leicester and the yard posts a solid 10% strike-rate here from a big sample. Only one run on good to soft so far and that produced no reward. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence in that assessment while stepping up in class.
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18Milford Grange37/100
Milford Grange is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on good to soft ground, placing twice from three starts. Drops back to 6f having been placed three times from four runs at the trip without winning, though the latest efforts suggest he is vulnerable in this company. Trainer has a 7% strike rate from 30 runs at Leicester. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment while stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
That's Random is the KTB Selection. He has shown steady improvement culminating in a win over this trip and benefits from the trainer's excellent 56% strike rate at Leicester from a small but meaningful sample. Drawn in stall 1 and with the strong pace likely to suit his hold-up style he has the right profile to come out on top. The main dangers are Dashing Dick, who has course-winning form and proven ability on good to soft, and Sargent Dennis, who brings a solid trainer record at the track despite his unknowns on the ground. Fenlander and HK Fourteen round out the principals and cannot be entirely ruled out on their best efforts.
KTB Selection That's Random
This is the narrative read of the 3:39 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leicester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leicester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse benefits most from the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses are favoured as the strong pace could collapse late. That's Random, Dashing Dick, Sargent Dennis and HK Fourteen are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
How does Harry Charlton's record at Leicester influence the chances of That's Random?
Trainer Harry Charlton has a 56% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 1.63 from nine runs.
Which front-runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Fenlander tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, as do Spirit of Jenny with medium confidence and Bay Breeze with high confidence.
What are the ground concerns for the top three in the KTB Fit Scores?
That's Random and Sargent Dennis are unproven on good to soft while Dashing Dick acts on the surface with two wins from four starts on good to soft.
Which trainer has the strongest Leicester record among those represented?
Harry Charlton has a 56% strike rate at Leicester from nine runs with an A/E of 1.63.
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