Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85).
Deterministic profile computed from 334 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
The read
Debutants struggle at 0% (n=48, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.75 and −82.50 to a £1 stake over 111 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well over 1m – 1m1f (10.4%, n=48). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 41 runners, 3.6pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Nasrullah' Handicap at Leopardstown (Jul 2023, £59,000). The stable star of the record: Benefit Night (IRE) — 5 wins from 34 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 3.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.8%−1.8
n=56 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −5.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.6
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.6
n=48 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −48.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.6
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
14.3%+10.7
n=7 · A/E 5.11 · £1 +4.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.98 · £1 +2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.7%−0.9
n=111 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −82.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%+3.5
n=14 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +20.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Wayne Lordan11.4% vs 3.6% · n=44
Over 1m – 1m1f10.4% vs 3.6% · n=48
With a new jockey booking0.6% vs 3.6% · n=154
With debutants0% vs 3.6% · n=48
Over 1m5f – 2m0% vs 3.6% · n=41
With W J Lee0% vs 3.6% · n=40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat21194.3%−110.00
Chase6423.1%−13.00
Hurdle4512.2%+6.00
NH Flat1400%−14.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good7434.1%−51.50
Soft7122.8%+14.00
Standard (AW)6523.1%−51.50
Heavy6035%−3.00
Good to Firm3525.7%−10.00
Good to Soft2500%−25.00
Firm400%−4.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)6523.1%−51.50
Cork3113.2%+10.00
Navan2314.3%−13.00
Gowran Park2314.3%+28.00
Naas2214.5%+12.00
Tipperary2100%−21.00
Punchestown2114.8%−4.00
Limerick1700%−17.00
Leopardstown17211.8%−1.00
Curragh1616.3%−10.00
Fairyhouse1300%−13.00
Killarney1119.1%+0.00
Thurles900%−9.00
Kilbeggan500%−5.00
Listowel500%−5.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11417.1%+20.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5240%1.98+2.00
2nd–3rd fav2229.1%0.66−8.00
4th–6th fav6334.8%0.69−34.00
7th+ in betting24452%0.86−91.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f8422.4%−74.50
1m – 1m1f48510.4%+24.50
1m5f – 2m4100%−41.00
2m5f – 3m4124.9%+44.00
1m2f – 1m4f3925.1%−20.00
2m1f – 2m4f3500%−35.00
Under 6f3300%−33.00
Over 3m1317.7%+4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20085300%−53.00
20093512.9%+16.00
20102214.5%−5.00
20115120%+29.00
201214214.3%+2.00
20132414.2%−13.00
20142300%−23.00
20153126.5%−13.00
2016600%−6.00
2017600%−6.00
2018600%−6.00
2019700%−7.00
20209111.1%−5.50
2021800%−8.00
202210110%+31.00
202315213.3%−3.50
20243100%−31.00
20252100%−21.00
2026800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps153117.2%+9.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners9522.1%−46.00
11-13 runners8811.1%−84.50
17+ runners6934.3%+33.00
8-10 runners54611.1%−5.50
5-7 runners2600%−26.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 62 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sean P Hennessy (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.
16 have since run for another yard, most often for David Pipe (2) and Michael Butler (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0063254441000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
19
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£357k
Prize money
2007
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,842 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.
Beneficial (GB)4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Progeny have won 11.5% of 3,947 runs since 2021 (389 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.6% from 1,416. Weakest on Soft going: 7.1% from 425.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 452 · newest first
The latest 50 of 452 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2005 to 17 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Daniel William O'Sullivan's strike rate?
Daniel William O'Sullivan has won 12 of 334 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Daniel William O'Sullivan do best at?
Cork by strike rate: 1 wins from 31 runners (3.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Daniel William O'Sullivan's Fair A/E?
0.85, from 332 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Daniel William O'Sullivan·SR 3.6%·A/E 0.85
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