Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.82).
Deterministic profile computed from 580 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance28.1% when favouriteStephane Paillard: 12.6% from 95Sends off the favourite in 6% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Pau (17.4%, n=46), clear of the yard's 10.9% baseline. It is weakest at Enghien (FR) (3.2% over 63 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 5.3% (n=76, Fair A/E 0.59). Stephane Paillard rides 16% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.6%, A/E 0.87). The yard also reads well in Flat races (19.6%, n=107) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (18.5%, n=65). 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Montgomery at Auteuil (FR) (Oct 2016, £57,904).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
9.1%−1.8
n=208 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −32.80
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−10.9
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
Debutants · first career start
11.9%+1.0
n=177 · A/E 0.67 · £1 +0.80
First-time headgear · true-first definition
5.3%−5.6
n=76 · A/E 0.59 · £1 −31.10
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−10.9
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
28.1%
n=32 · A/E 0.88 · £1 +12.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.8%−4.1
n=132 · A/E 0.68 · £1 +41.10
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.8%−5.1
n=69 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −47.20
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Hugo Lucas0% vs 10.9% · n=44
In Flat races19.6% vs 10.9% · n=107
With Anthony Blais19.5% vs 10.9% · n=41
At Enghien (FR)3.2% vs 10.9% · n=63
Over 1m2f – 1m4f18.5% vs 10.9% · n=65
At Pau17.4% vs 10.9% · n=46
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase3003010%−15.80
Hurdle173126.9%−51.90
Flat1072119.6%+11.80
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft3153310.5%−92.50
Heavy183179.3%−42.50
Standard (AW)36513.9%−7.50
Good22313.6%+65.80
Good to Soft19421.1%+17.20
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Auteuil (FR)293237.8%−145.10
Enghien (FR)6323.2%−35.60
Pau46817.4%+31.90
Deauville (FR)29310.3%−8.60
Le Lion-D'Angers19210.5%+13.00
Compiegne (FR)1600%−16.00
Nantes10110%−6.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)10110%−9.00
Angers9555.6%+11.80
Craon7114.3%+10.00
Meslay-Du-Maine6233.3%−2.00
Longchamp (FR)6233.3%+1.70
Fontainebleau500%−5.00
Pornichet-La Baule4125%−0.40
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)4125%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 16945.8%−47.20
Class 4200%−2.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite36925%0.73+8.90
2nd–3rd fav871618.4%0.64+102.40
4th–6th fav1241411.3%1.53+28.50
7th+ in betting25220.8%0.28−195.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f324299%−37.90
2m5f – 3m1271511.8%−9.80
1m2f – 1m4f651218.5%−7.70
1m5f – 2m29517.2%+9.50
Over 3m2214.5%+0.00
1m – 1m1f10110%−7.00
6f – 7f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200819526.3%−1.00
200927725.9%−2.00
2010611219.7%−12.90
20114636.5%+38.00
201255712.7%−1.00
2013891011.2%−3.00
20144848.3%−17.60
20154948.2%−9.00
20164224.8%−29.10
20172514%−14.50
201816212.5%+13.40
201914214.3%+12.00
20201915.3%−6.10
20211516.7%+17.00
2022700%−6.00
20236116.7%+1.10
20241516.7%−9.20
20251400%−13.00
20261300%−13.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9266.5%−63.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners159116.9%−38.90
11-13 runners11765.1%−47.40
14-16 runners9066.7%+16.60
2-4 runners883034.1%+55.50
5-7 runners69811.6%+8.10
17+ runners5611.8%−49.80
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 200 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive; 55 had their first archived run for this yard.
13 have since run for another yard; 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
291968165017715621
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
66
Archived wins
4
Pattern / graded wins
£2.18m
Prize money
2010
Best season · 12 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Valtor (FR) — Prix Montgomery (Chase) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Oct 2016 · Grade 3
£57,904
Argentier (FR) — Prix Hubert d'Aillieres (Hurdle) () (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Mar 2018 · Listed
£33,982
Neo Barres (FR) — Prix Rose Or No (Listed Handicap Hurdle) Auteuil (FR) · Apr 2008 · Listed
Progeny have won 7.6% of 434 runs since 2008 (64 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13.3% from 105.
Goldneyev (USA)0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 14% of 767 runs since 2008 (116 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 18% from 183. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.5% from 118.
Martaline (GB)6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,345 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Panoramic I (GB)12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 12.6% of 516 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.2% from 122.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 602 · newest first
The latest 50 of 602 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 May 2005 to 20 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is E Leray's strike rate?
E Leray has won 63 of 580 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.9% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does E Leray do best at?
Pau by strike rate: 8 wins from 46 runners (17.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for E Leray?
Stephane Paillard, with 95 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (12.6%).
Is E Leray in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is E Leray's Fair A/E?
0.82, from 450 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
E Leray·SR 10.9%·A/E 0.82
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