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Trainer profile

Jonathan Fogarty

159 runners in the lifetime window · 38 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 62 days ago 90% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2014→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
14–159
Wins / Runs
8.8%
Strike rate
n=159
35 (22%)
Placed
1.27
Fair A/E
n=159 · 1.00 incl. margin
−30.49
£1 level stake
n=159 at SP · −19.2%
£131k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.27). With a claiming rider up the record reads 14% (44 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 159 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 12.5% M P Fogarty: 8.8% from 68 Claiming riders: 13.6%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=44, Fair A/E 1.44), but debutants struggle at 3.3% (n=30, Fair A/E 0.87). M P Fogarty rides 43% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.8%, A/E 1.23) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 4.5% over 44 runners, 4.3pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
12.5%+3.7
n=32 · A/E 1.80 · £1 −8.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+3.7
n=8 · A/E 1.99 · £1 −5.38
Debutants · first career start
3.3%−5.5
n=30 · A/E 0.87 · £1 +21.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.8
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=14 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −2.87
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13.6%+4.8
n=44 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +3.33
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.8
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With debutants 3.3% vs 8.8% · n=30
With claiming riders up 13.6% vs 8.8% · n=44
On Heavy going 4.5% vs 8.8% · n=44
On Soft going 11.1% vs 8.8% · n=63
Off a 15-30-day break 11.1% vs 8.8% · n=45
Over 1m5f – 2m 6.8% vs 8.8% · n=74
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 115 10 8.7% −58.49
Flat 16 1 6.3% −7.00
NH Flat 16 1 6.3% +35.00
Chase 12 2 16.7% +0.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 63 7 11.1% −27.91
Heavy 44 2 4.5% +20.00
Good 29 3 10.3% −15.58
Good to Soft 16 2 12.5% +0.00
Good to Firm 5 0 0% −5.00
Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wexford 15 2 13.3% −2.67
Clonmel 14 1 7.1% −9.50
Gowran Park 13 0 0% −13.00
Thurles 12 4 33.3% +63.88
Tramore 12 0 0% −12.00
Punchestown 11 0 0% −11.00
Fairyhouse 11 0 0% −11.00
Cork 10 1 10% −3.00
Naas 8 0 0% −8.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00
Galway 6 0 0% −6.00
Limerick 5 0 0% −5.00
Leopardstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Downpatrick 4 3 75% +4.42
Kilbeggan 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 15 5 33.3% 1.31 +0.63
2nd–3rd fav 20 4 20% 1.21 +1.88
4th–6th fav 28 4 14.3% 2.01 +12.00
7th+ in betting 96 1 1% 0.53 −45.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
88.2% completed · 127 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 12 75% 1 1 1 0 0
Hurdle 115 89.6% 5 4 2 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Iridescent (IRE) 27 4 10 30 Aug 24
Coole Craft (IRE)then R Donohoe 17 1 3 23 Mar 17
Bannow Blaze (IRE) 15 1 4 28 Aug 26
Get It Back (IRE) 11 0 0 2 Nov 17
Robin Gold (IRE)then Dan Skelton 10 2 2 4 Jan 20
Salamanca Bay (IRE)then Lucinda Russell 8 1 2 8 Apr 22
Goldwyn (IRE)then Mark Walford 6 0 2 10 Apr 23
Tornado Watch (IRE)from M O Cullinane · then David Loughnane 6 3 3 4 Feb 17
Gi Jayne (IRE)then Dan Skelton 5 0 1 24 Jun 17
Toni Ram (IRE) 4 0 0 11 Dec 22
Keep It Cool (IRE)from David O'Meara · then Richard John O'Brien 4 0 0 21 Nov 14
Tamara Jane (IRE)from Liam G O'Brien 3 0 2 3 Sep 26
All 38 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 38 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 30 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (2); 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
001401517015221700
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderM P Fogarty
43% of all rides
8.8% SR · A/E 1.23
RiderRWSR£1
M P Fogarty 68 6 8.8% −42.32
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2014→
14
Archived wins
£131k
Prize money
2016
Best season · 4 wins
Bannow Blaze (IRE) — Slaney View Honda Handicap Hurdle Wexford · Oct 2025
£8,850
Gift Banda (GB) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Maiden (Plus 10) Bellewstown · Jun 2016
£8,610
Iridescent (IRE) — Elevate Financial Planning Opportunity Handicap Chase Wexford · Aug 2023
£6,785
Notable horses
Iridescent (IRE) Tornado Watch (IRE) Robin Gold (IRE) Coole Craft (IRE) Bannow Blaze (IRE) Salamanca Bay (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Touch Of Land (FR) 14.8% · 4–27
Progeny have won 7.5% of 681 runs since 2012 (44 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 178. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.3% from 188.
Gulland (GB) 5.9% · 1–17
Progeny have won 5.8% of 226 runs since 2008 (15 horses).
Lucky Speed (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 6.3% of 429 runs since 2020 (61 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.3% from 151.
Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,749 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Gold Well (GB) 20% · 2–10
Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).
Saint Des Saints (FR) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 15% of 5,358 runs since 2008 (643 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 159 · newest first

The latest 50 of 159 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 September 2014 to 3 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Tamara Jane (IRE)J: Mr A M O'Keeffe Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race19f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 3rd 9/4
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche Golden Cow Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 14 ran 13th 25/1
02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 17 ran PU 14/1
01 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Tamara Jane (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Electric Galway Irish EBF Mares Flat Race17f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 4th 4/1
08 Jun 26 Roscommon Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: John Shinnick McGowan Accountancy Services Novice Chase16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 8 ran F 40/1
29 May 26 Tramore Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Tramore Derby July 7th Beginners Chase15.5f · Good · 8 ran UR 9/1
16 May 26 Wexford Tamara Jane (IRE)J: Mr J W Hendrick Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 17/2
07 May 26 Wexford Five Shiros (GB)J: Mr B T Stone Slaney Mares Point-To-Point Flat Race17f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 2nd 4/1
26 Dec 25 Limerick Storm Queen (IRE)J: Mr C M Moore Play perysbingo.com Mares Flat Race16f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 10/3
26 Dec 25 Leopardstown Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Mr R Sugrue E-Auctions Novice Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding · 18 ran 11th 8/1
23 Nov 25 Cork Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 11 ran 2nd 10/11F
27 Oct 25 Wexford Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Slaney View Honda Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 1st 10/3F
03 Oct 25 Gowran Park Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Brian Hayes William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 13 ran 2nd 13/2
29 Aug 25 Down Royal Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Dale Farm Dromona Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 7th 15/2
04 Aug 25 Cork Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Brian Hayes Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)17f · Good · 18 ran 2nd 16/1
16 Jun 25 Kilbeggan Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Mr B T Stone Watch Every Race Live On Racing TV (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 14 ran 5th 85/40F
16 May 25 Kilbeggan Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Mr B T Stone Kilbeggan Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran UR 5/1
08 May 25 Tipperary Katie's Melody (IRE)J: Mr B T Stone Millennium Surveys Ltd Mares Point-To-Point Flat Race18f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 2nd 6/4F
27 Jan 25 Punchestown Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Mr R Sugrue 50,000 BetVictor Graduation Bonus Series Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 16 ran 7th 200/1
26 Dec 24 Leopardstown Bannow Blaze (IRE)J: Jack G Gilligan TRI Equestrian Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 23 ran 13th 150/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Jonathan Fogarty's strike rate?
Jonathan Fogarty has won 14 of 159 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Jonathan Fogarty?
M P Fogarty, with 68 runners since 2008 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 6 (8.8%).
What is Jonathan Fogarty's Fair A/E?
1.27, from 159 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).