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Trainer profile

Kate Walton

669 runners in the lifetime window · 78 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Dec 2012
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
58–669
Wins / Runs
8.7%
Strike rate
n=669
185 (28%)
Placed
1.05
Fair A/E
n=665 · 0.89 incl. margin
−115.13
£1 level stake
n=669 at SP · −17.2%
£374k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
5.4%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 130 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05).

Deterministic profile computed from 669 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fired Aug–Oct 17.6% when favourite Richie McGrath: 12.7% from 276 Sent off the favourite in 5% of races
The read

It is weakest at Carlisle (2.4% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.5% (n=127, Fair A/E 0.81). Richie McGrath rode 41% of the entries and edges the yard's average (12.7% vs 8.7%, A/E 1.33) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also read well in Class 3 (14.4%, n=104). The record read poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 2.6% over 38 runners, 6.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.69 across 213 runners (4.7% strike, −118.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the John Smith's Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race Grade 2 at Aintree (Apr 2009, £22,804). The stable star of the record was Morgan Be (GB) — 7 wins from 33 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Aug–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.5%−3.2
n=127 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −54.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−8.7
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Debutants · first career start
9.1%+0.4
n=44 · A/E 1.64 · £1 +9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
13%+4.3
n=23 · A/E 1.85 · £1 −5.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
21.4%+12.7
n=14 · A/E 2.68 · £1 +10.50
When favourite
17.6%
n=34 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −13.88
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.8%−0.9
n=204 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −56.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
16.7%+8.0
n=6 · A/E 5.62 · £1 +15.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 15.5% vs 8.7% · n=71
In Class 3 14.4% vs 8.7% · n=104
At Carlisle 2.4% vs 8.7% · n=42
With Richie McGrath 12.7% vs 8.7% · n=276
Over 1m – 1m1f 2.6% vs 8.7% · n=38
In Flat races 4.7% vs 8.7% · n=213
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 301 31 10.3% −52.13
Flat 213 10 4.7% −118.50
Chase 97 9 9.3% −30.75
NH Flat 58 8 13.8% +86.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 199 16 8% −73.13
Good to Soft 158 19 12% +77.00
Soft 130 8 6.2% −43.50
Good to Firm 123 11 8.9% −33.00
Heavy 44 4 9.1% −27.50
Standard (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00
Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle 57 6 10.5% −5.75
Wetherby 56 3 5.4% −8.00
Sedgefield 53 5 9.4% −1.50
Hexham 48 4 8.3% +4.00
Catterick 46 2 4.3% −30.00
Carlisle 42 1 2.4% −37.00
Doncaster 35 1 2.9% −31.50
Kelso 29 6 20.7% +17.00
Market Rasen 28 5 17.9% +18.12
Haydock 28 0 0% −28.00
Musselburgh 26 6 23.1% +22.00
Ripon 25 1 4% −17.00
Redcar 22 2 9.1% −9.50
Ayr 19 2 10.5% −10.25
Beverley 18 1 5.6% −9.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 250 22 8.8% −72.88
Class 5 163 10 6.1% −63.00
Class 6 119 9 7.6% −40.25
Class 3 104 15 14.4% +6.00
Class 2 21 0 0% −21.00
Class 1 12 2 16.7% +76.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 40 6 15% 0.65 −19.88
2nd–3rd fav 134 22 16.4% 1.09 −12.25
4th–6th fav 215 23 10.7% 1.38 +13.00
7th+ in betting 280 7 2.5% 0.74 −96.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Embsay Crag (GB)then Philip Kirby 42 4 13 26 Dec 12
Royal Flynn (GB)from Michael Dods 39 1 8 1 Jun 11
Stopped Out (GB)then Philip Kirby 32 5 13 3 Nov 12
Jupiter Fidius (GB)then Karen Tutty 29 2 13 28 Dec 11
Everaard (USA)from David Elsworth · then Philip Kirby 27 4 8 10 Dec 12
Dream Risk (FR)then Brian Ellison 23 3 5 27 Sep 11
Morgan Be (GB)from Lisa Williamson · then Philip Kirby 21 3 8 16 Dec 12
Pen Gwen (FR)from Nigel Twiston-Davies · then Philip Kirby 21 0 5 5 Dec 12
Cecina Marina (GB)from C W Thornton 19 0 4 4 May 10
Rumble of Thunder (IRE)from David Arbuthnot · then Philip Kirby 18 4 6 10 Dec 12
Unawatuna (GB) 18 2 6 27 Oct 10
It's A Roofer (IRE) 16 0 7 20 Jun 10
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 78 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Sue Smith (2); 42 had their first archived run for this yard.

34 have since run for another yard, most often for Philip Kirby (16) and James Ewart (3); 26 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
176710487121110712
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRichie McGrath
41% of all rides
12.7% SR · A/E 1.33
RiderRWSR£1
Richie McGrath 276 35 12.7% +70.12
Kelly Harrison 40 2 5% −20.00
Henry Brooke 36 1 2.8% −29.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
83
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£588k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 17 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Sitting Tennant (GB) — John Smith's Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race Grade 2 Aintree · Apr 2009 · Class 1
£22,804
Rumble of Thunder (IRE) — totescoop6 'Prelude' Hurdle (Listed Handicap) Market Rasen · Sep 2011 · Listed
£17,085
Huka Lodge (IRE) — Last Fling Handicap Chase Haydock · Dec 2007 · Class 3
£16,265
Notable horses
Morgan Be (GB) Stopped Out (GB) Breaking Storm (IRE) Still At Lunch (IRE) Embsay Crag (GB) Everaard (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Elmaamul (USA) 9.5% · 4–42
Progeny have won 7.4% of 500 runs since 2008 (35 horses).
Royal Applause (GB) 2.6% · 1–39
Progeny have won 8.6% of 12,434 runs since 2008 (774 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.4% from 323.
Montjoy (USA) 15.6% · 5–32
Progeny have won 16.9% of 83 runs since 2008 (6 horses).
Haafhd (GB) 6.9% · 2–29
Progeny have won 10.9% of 4,752 runs since 2008 (305 horses).
Lion Heart (USA) 14.8% · 4–27
Progeny have won 8.1% of 384 runs since 2008 (29 horses).
Dream Well (FR) 13% · 3–23
Progeny have won 11.6% of 1,165 runs since 2008 (135 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.2% from 210. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 0% from 111. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 190. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.5% from 185.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,033 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,033 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 29 December 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Dec 12 Doncaster Oscar O'scar (IRE)J: Brian Harding crownhotel-bawtry.com 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Soft · 20 ran 13th 100/1
26 Dec 12 Wetherby Embsay Crag (GB)J: Richie McGrath Visit betfair.com/racingoffers Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 4th 7/1
26 Dec 12 Sedgefield Taxi Des Obeaux (FR)J: Adam Nicol Collins Seafoods 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (John Wade And Collins Seafoods Ltd Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 17f · Heavy · 11 ran UR 6/1
18 Dec 12 Catterick Foxy Gillian (GB)J: Scott Brockbank Racing Again On 28th December Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Soft · 11 ran 8th 22/1
18 Dec 12 Catterick Mrs Eff (GB)J: Richie McGrath Follow Us On Twitter At CatterickRaces Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25.5f · Soft · 10 ran PU 9/1
16 Dec 12 Carlisle Morgan Be (GB)J: Tony Kelly Leaping For Lifestyle Fitness Handicap Chase (Jockey Club Grass Roots Jumps Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 26f · Heavy · 5 ran 5th 14/1
11 Dec 12 Sedgefield Picks Milan (IRE)J: Richie McGrath John Smith's Extra Smooth Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 17f · Soft · 11 ran 6th 12/1
11 Dec 12 Sedgefield Oscar O'scar (IRE)J: Wilson Renwick SIS Live Maiden Hurdle (John Wade And Collins Seafoods Ltd Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 21f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 12/1
11 Dec 12 Sedgefield Victor Lynch (IRE)J: Richie McGrath SIS Live Maiden Hurdle (John Wade And Collins Seafoods Ltd Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 21f · Soft · 12 ran 3rd 11/4
10 Dec 12 Musselburgh Rumble of Thunder (IRE)J: Richie McGrath Weatherbys Printing Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 8th 40/1
10 Dec 12 Musselburgh Everaard (USA)J: Richie McGrath Watch Kelso On Turftv In Betting Shops Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 3rd 4/1J
05 Dec 12 Catterick Foxy Gillian (GB)J: Scott Brockbank Go Racing At Wetherby This Saturday Intermediate Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran F 25/1
05 Dec 12 Catterick Mrs Eff (GB)J: Richie McGrath Yorkshire-outdoors.co.uk Mares' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 10/1
05 Dec 12 Catterick Pen Gwen (FR)J: Scott Brockbank Ann And Brian Everett Golden Wedding Anniversary Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 2nd 16/1
23 Nov 12 Haydock Kettlewell (GB)J: Scott Brockbank Polyflor At Home.com E.B.F. 'Junior' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 4 · 12.5f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 28/1
22 Nov 12 Market Rasen Jasper Massini (IRE)J: Richie McGrath Direct 365 Janitorial Solutions Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Soft · 8 ran 6th 16/1
17 Nov 12 Wetherby Morgan Be (GB)J: Richie McGrath Totepool Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25f · Soft · 9 ran PU 40/1
17 Nov 12 Wetherby Everaard (USA)J: Richie McGrath Dransfields Ciu Charity Raceday Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25.5f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 5/1J
16 Nov 12 Newcastle Just Cameron (GB)J: Richie McGrath ITPS Maiden Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 16f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 1st 14/1
09 Nov 12 Hexham Pen Gwen (FR)J: Scott Brockbank SIS Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 15.5f · Soft · 6 ran 3rd 8/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kate Walton's strike rate?
Kate Walton has won 58 of 669 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.7% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kate Walton do best at?
Newcastle by strike rate: 6 wins from 57 runners (10.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kate Walton?
Richie McGrath, with 276 runners since 2008 — 41% of the total. That pairing has won 35 (12.7%).
What is Kate Walton's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 665 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).