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Trainer profile

Kevin Michael Smith

387 runners in the lifetime window · 31 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
21–387
Wins / Runs
5.4%
Strike rate
n=387
75 (19%)
Placed
0.89
Fair A/E
n=386 · 0.71 incl. margin
−130.84
£1 level stake
n=387 at SP · −33.8%
£281k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.1%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.89).

Deterministic profile computed from 387 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 6% Wesley Joyce: 6.8% from 73 Claiming riders: 5.6%
The read

Wesley Joyce rides 19% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 1m – 1m1f (8.8%, n=80). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 0% over 35 runners, 5.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.28 across 62 runners (1.6% strike, −55.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6%+0.6
n=67 · A/E 1.54 · £1 −32.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%+1.7
n=14 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +27.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.4
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.4
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.4
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
When favourite
13.3%
n=15 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −6.67
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%+0.2
n=249 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −33.67
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Heavy going 0% vs 5.4% · n=35
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 1.6% vs 5.4% · n=62
Over 1m – 1m1f 8.8% vs 5.4% · n=80
With horses switching code 1.8% vs 5.4% · n=55
Over 6f – 7f 7.6% vs 5.4% · n=118
Over 1m5f – 2m 3.2% vs 5.4% · n=63
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 293 17 5.8% −119.84
Hurdle 79 3 3.8% −9.00
NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00
Chase 6 1 16.7% +7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 126 7 5.6% −20.50
Standard (AW) 102 7 6.9% −27.67
Soft 90 4 4.4% −29.67
Heavy 35 0 0% −35.00
Good to Soft 27 2 7.4% −17.00
Good to Firm 7 1 14.3% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 102 7 6.9% −27.67
Galway 33 2 6.1% −4.00
Down Royal 25 2 8% −9.50
Curragh 24 1 4.2% +17.00
Gowran Park 23 2 8.7% −12.67
Navan 19 0 0% −19.00
Fairyhouse 17 0 0% −17.00
Naas 17 0 0% −17.00
Leopardstown 15 0 0% −15.00
Punchestown 14 0 0% −14.00
Downpatrick 14 2 14.3% +40.00
Roscommon 13 1 7.7% −6.00
Limerick 12 2 16.7% +3.00
Bellewstown 11 0 0% −11.00
Cork 10 1 10% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 19 2 10.5% 0.49 −10.67
2nd–3rd fav 51 11 21.6% 1.63 +15.83
4th–6th fav 89 4 4.5% 0.62 −20.00
7th+ in betting 228 4 1.8% 0.65 −116.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Son Of Hypnos (IRE)from Matthew J Smith · then Ryan Chapman 47 3 10 20 Oct 25
International Lady (IRE)from Richard Fahey 32 2 9 15 Oct 24
Blue Wood (IRE)from M A Cahill 26 1 8 5 Nov 25
Marians Gal (IRE) 25 1 6 15 May 26
Nawraq (IRE) 25 0 4 1 Nov 24
Cornahilt Soldier (IRE) 23 1 4 11 Sep 25
Fil The Power (GB)from Matthew J Smith 22 1 5 3 Jun 22
Gangsta Man (IRE)then Jim Goldie 18 2 5 27 Sep 25
Jackmel (IRE)from Matthew J Smith 17 3 3 16 Mar 23
Java Wood (IRE) 15 3 4 1 Nov 26
Red Secret (CAN)from Ed Dunlop 15 0 3 16 Jun 25
White Quarry Rose (IRE) 15 0 0 28 May 24
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 31 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Matthew J Smith (5); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
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A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderWesley Joyce
19% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 1.07
RiderRWSR£1
Wesley Joyce 73 5 6.8% −40.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
21
Archived wins
£281k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
Java Wood (IRE) — Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap Curragh (IRE) · Nov 2026
£30,000
Son Of Hypnos (IRE) — Easyfix Handicap Hurdle (95-109) Galway · Jul 2024
£10,030
Gangsta Man (IRE) — Golf At Gowran Park Handicap Gowran Park · Sep 2025
£7,670
Notable horses
Son Of Hypnos (IRE) Jackmel (IRE) Java Wood (IRE) International Lady (IRE) Gangsta Man (IRE) Blue Wood (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Morpheus (GB) 6.4% · 3–47
Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,673 runs since 2018 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 540. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 148.
Requinto (IRE) 9.8% · 4–41
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,459 runs since 2016 (162 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.5% from 223.
Showcasing (GB) 6.3% · 2–32
Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,640 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.
Mustameet (USA) 0% · 0–31
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,162 runs since 2013 (103 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.5% from 248. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5% from 424.
Soldier's Call (GB) 3.7% · 1–27
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,121 runs since 2023 (217 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 199. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 246.
Buratino (IRE) 0% · 0–25
Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,885 runs since 2020 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 387 · newest first

The latest 50 of 387 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 July 2020 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Java Wood (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 1st 40/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Outside Sun (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Golf At Gowran Park Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 125/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Java Wood (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Christmas Festival Tickets On Sale Now Handicap10f · Good · 15 ran 8th 22/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Unfamiliar (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div II)7.5f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 66/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Java Wood (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Guinness Handicap7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 7th 18/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Outside Sun (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 10th 400/1
15 Aug 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Outside Sun (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden6f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 250/1
05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Unfamiliar (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Baader - Eddie Carr PBR 2000 Handicap6f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 16/1
05 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Outside Sun (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden6f · Yielding · 11 ran 10th 20/1
03 Aug 26 Naas (IRE) Undefeatable (IRE)J: Sam Coen Matchbook Supporting Local Racing Apprentice Handicap5f · Good · 15 ran 13th 20/1
02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Unfamiliar (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Village Salthill Handicap8.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 11th 25/1
30 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Java Wood (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce Rockshore Refreshingly Irish Handicap8.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 7th 14/1
28 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Java Wood (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Caulfield Industrial Handicap8.5f · Yielding · 17 ran 12th 13/2
27 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Unfamiliar (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Clayton Hotel Galway Handicap7f · Yielding · 15 ran 14th 22/1
11 Jul 26 Limerick Spirit Above (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle DAR Golf And Mann Family Handicap (0-60)6.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 10/1
11 Jul 26 Limerick Undefeatable (IRE)J: Scott McCullagh Ei Electronics Handicap (0-60)6.5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 12/1
19 Jun 26 Down Royal Spirit Above (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan WillWeGo Handicap5f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 5/2F
12 Jun 26 Gowran Park Java Wood (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Gowran Park Handicap9.5f · Yielding · 15 ran 3rd 15/2
10 Jun 26 Limerick Unfamiliar (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Cosgrave Transport Handicap (0-60) (Div 2)7f · Yielding · 13 ran 1st 7/1
10 Jun 26 Limerick Java Wood (IRE)J: Colin Keane Twilight Summer Racing At Limerick Handicap8f · Yielding · 15 ran 1st 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Kevin Michael Smith's strike rate?
Kevin Michael Smith has won 21 of 387 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kevin Michael Smith do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 102 runners (6.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kevin Michael Smith?
Wesley Joyce, with 73 runners since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (6.8%).
Is Kevin Michael Smith in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kevin Michael Smith's Fair A/E?
0.89, from 386 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).