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Trainer profile

Liam G O'Brien

146 runners in the lifetime window · 28 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 345 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
9–146
Wins / Runs
6.2%
Strike rate
n=146
20 (14%)
Placed
1.30
Fair A/E
n=146 · 1.03 incl. margin
−79.12
£1 level stake
n=146 at SP · −54.2%
£84,270
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.30).

Deterministic profile computed from 146 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=45, Fair A/E 0.58). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 0% over 39 runners, 6.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.82 across 50 runners (4% strike, −38.62 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%−3.3
n=34 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −25.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.2
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.2
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
20%+13.8
n=10 · A/E 3.87 · £1 +12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.2
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
When favourite
40%
n=5 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +0.13
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.2%−4.0
n=45 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −36.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Flat races 0% vs 6.2% · n=39
With claiming riders up 2.2% vs 6.2% · n=45
In Hurdle races 8.9% vs 6.2% · n=90
On Soft going 4% vs 6.2% · n=50
With a new jockey booking 4.6% vs 6.2% · n=87 · A/E 1.21
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 7.9% vs 6.2% · n=63 · A/E 1.27
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 90 8 8.9% −26.37
Flat 39 0 0% −39.00
NH Flat 9 0 0% −9.00
Chase 8 1 12.5% −4.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 50 2 4% −38.62
Good 39 3 7.7% −5.75
Heavy 24 3 12.5% −6.75
Good to Soft 23 1 4.3% −18.00
Standard (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 14 1 7.1% −5.50
Fairyhouse 12 1 8.3% −6.00
Gowran Park 12 1 8.3% −3.00
Cork 11 1 9.1% +6.00
Dundalk (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00
Tramore 10 1 10% −7.12
Tipperary 7 0 0% −7.00
Wexford 7 1 14.3% +6.00
Naas 6 0 0% −6.00
Leopardstown 6 0 0% −6.00
Kilbeggan 5 1 20% +0.00
Navan 5 0 0% −5.00
Listowel 5 0 0% −5.00
Limerick 5 1 20% −1.75
Curragh 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 6 0 0% −6.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 2 40% 1.51 +0.13
2nd–3rd fav 14 3 21.4% 1.71 +0.25
4th–6th fav 25 3 12% 1.76 +5.50
7th+ in betting 102 1 1% 0.47 −85.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87.8% completed · 98 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 8 75% 0 0 2 0 0
Hurdle 90 88.9% 1 2 7 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
We'llgowats (IRE) 22 2 6 25 Nov 25
Mighty Jeremy (IRE)from P Meany · then Patrick T Foley 12 3 6 1 May 24
Make No Plans (IRE) 11 0 0 22 Nov 24
Famous Enough (IRE)then Patrick T Foley 11 0 0 6 Dec 23
Smash The Lamp (IRE)from Andrew Slattery 11 1 1 24 Sep 22
Minella Away (IRE)from Ben Pauling 9 0 1 4 Jul 22
Dairy Force (IRE)from Anthony Mullins · then Gordon Elliott 7 1 2 20 Nov 25
Characteristic (IRE)from Tom Clover · then G A Kingston 7 0 1 11 Jan 21
Koo Star (IRE)from Anthony Mullins 6 0 0 24 Apr 25
Well Del (IRE)then Eoin Doyle 6 1 1 21 Dec 24
Claire's Charm (IRE) 5 0 0 6 Jun 21
My Boy Christy (IRE)then Ewan Whillans 4 0 0 13 Nov 25
All 28 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 28 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Anthony Mullins (2); 19 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Patrick T Foley (2); 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
10140200101306600
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Donagh Meyler 22 1 4.5% −18.75
Conor McNamara 19 3 15.8% +20.00
Darragh O'Keeffe 11 1 9.1% −5.00
Mark Enright 9 0 0% −9.00
Rory Cleary 5 0 0% −5.00
G B Noonan 5 1 20% +3.50
Mr Finian Maguire 5 1 20% +0.00
Ian Power 4 2 50% +1.13
Paddy Harnett 4 0 0% −4.00
Nathan Crosse 3 0 0% −3.00
Oakley Brown 3 0 0% −3.00
Aidan Kelly 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
9
Archived wins
£84,270
Prize money
2024
Best season · 4 wins
Well Del (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase Limerick · Oct 2024
£9,145
We'llgowats (IRE) — Follow Us On Instagram Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Cork · Jul 2022
£6,785
Sunshine Diamond (IRE) — Visit Wexford Maiden Hurdle Wexford · Jul 2024
£6,490
Notable horses
Mighty Jeremy (IRE) We'llgowats (IRE) Smash The Lamp (IRE) Dairy Force (IRE) Well Del (IRE) Sunshine Diamond (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 9.1% · 2–22
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,493 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Elzaam (AUS) 0% · 0–15
Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,528 runs since 2016 (374 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.9% from 326.
Jeremy (USA) 25% · 3–12
Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.
Vendangeur (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 9.1% of 776 runs since 2012 (82 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.7% from 123.
Vinnie Roe (IRE) 9.1% · 1–11
Progeny have won 11.3% of 3,061 runs since 2010 (236 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 7.8% from 166.
Stowaway (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 11.3% of 7,190 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 124.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 146 · newest first

The latest 50 of 146 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 August 2020 to 25 November 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
25 Nov 25 Tramore We'llgowats (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Book A Table For New Years Day Mares Handicap Hurdle21f · Soft · 13 ran 8th 12/1
20 Nov 25 Thurles Dairy Force (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)20f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 4th 5/1
13 Nov 25 Punchestown My Boy Christy (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Matchbook Best Odds On Horse Racing Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20.5f · Heavy · 21 ran 20th 33/1
08 Nov 25 Gowran Park We'llgowats (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Pat Carroll's Pub Kilkenny Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Heavy · 19 ran 4th 12/1
27 Oct 25 Wexford My Boy Christy (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Racing TV Free Trial For A Month Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 11 ran 4th 13/2
26 Oct 25 Wexford We'llgowats (IRE)J: J J Slevin Jim Ryan Racecourse Services Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)20f · Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 22/1
23 Oct 25 Clonmel Dairy Force (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Mahon Falls Handicap Hurdle20f · Yielding · 8 ran 2nd 8/1
14 Oct 25 Punchestown Dairy Force (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 10th 16/1
03 Oct 25 Gowran Park Dairy Force (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Soft · 13 ran UR 16/1
08 Aug 25 Wexford We'llgowats (IRE)J: Darragh O'Keeffe Traynors Of Wexford Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)20.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 10th 10/1
11 Jul 25 Cork Queenofqueenstreet (IRE)J: Mr A T Feeney Racing Again July 25th Fillies Flat Race17f · Good · 16 ran 15th 80/1
11 Jul 25 Cork Tamara Jane (IRE)J: Oakley Brown Follow Us On Twitter Maiden Hurdle24f · Good · 18 ran UR 150/1
11 Jul 25 Cork Outlaw Johnnie (IRE)J: Oakley Brown Buy Tickets On www.corkracecourse.ie Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 18 ran PU 125/1
04 Jul 25 Bellewstown Alkustreet (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden8f · Good · 13 ran 12th 200/1
24 Apr 25 Kilbeggan Koo Star (IRE)J: Conor McNamara Follow Kilbeggan On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)18f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 8th 14/1
06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Koo Star (IRE)J: Callum Pritchard RHN Your Professional Travel Partner Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 40/1
03 Mar 25 Leopardstown My Boy Christy (IRE)J: Conor McNamara Leopardstown Members Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 200/1
21 Dec 24 Thurles Well Del (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Horse & Jockey Hotel Rated Novice Hurdle23f · Good · 9 ran 9th 28/1
16 Dec 24 Naas My Boy Christy (IRE)J: Conor McNamara Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 16th 100/1
30 Nov 24 Fairyhouse Well Del (IRE)J: Sarah Kavanagh Race And Stay Ladies Handicap Chase21.5f · Yielding · 10 ran 7th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Liam G O'Brien's strike rate?
Liam G O'Brien has won 9 of 146 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.2% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Liam G O'Brien's Fair A/E?
1.30, from 146 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).