Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,621 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 25 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires May–Jul31.9% when favouriteTom McLaughlin: 10.8% from 278Sends off the favourite in 9% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Brighton (19.8%, n=81), clear of the yard's 11.2% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=53, Fair A/E 0.00). Tom McLaughlin rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.8%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.8% over 72 runners, 8.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m – 1m1f: Fair A/E 0.62 across 115 runners (5.2% strike, −81.12 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 8 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Brady's Mercedes Benz Rockingham Handicap at Curragh (Jul 2011, £48,000). The stable star of the record: Ginzan (GB) — 11 wins from 73 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jul.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.4%−5.8
n=224 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −30.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.3%−5.9
n=19 · A/E 1.39 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.2
n=53 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −53.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
8.6%−2.6
n=35 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −19.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10%−1.2
n=50 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −19.75
When favourite
31.9%
n=144 · A/E 1.20 · £1 +0.87
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10%−1.2
n=290 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −79.42
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.2
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With debutants0% vs 11.2% · n=53
With Dane O'Neill23.5% vs 11.2% · n=34
At Brighton19.8% vs 11.2% · n=81
With Josephine Gordon20.8% vs 11.2% · n=48
Off a 61-180-day break2.8% vs 11.2% · n=72
Over 1m – 1m1f5.2% vs 11.2% · n=115
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1,62018111.2%−361.93
Chase100%−1.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm4124410.7%−129.35
Good358328.9%−126.52
Standard (AW)318268.2%−95.52
Good to Soft1953216.4%+42.10
Firm1672716.2%−32.34
Soft1541811.7%−15.30
Heavy17211.8%−6.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Bath4605912.8%−68.59
Chepstow2693412.6%−36.73
Wolverhampton (AW)169105.9%−85.02
Salisbury1471510.2%−32.52
Windsor9488.5%−10.90
Kempton (AW)8289.8%+7.12
Brighton811619.8%−1.37
Lingfield (AW)49612.2%−16.12
Lingfield40410%−27.80
Newbury3013.3%−21.00
Goodwood29413.8%+3.00
Ffos Las2727.4%−19.00
Sandown25416%+3.00
Ascot1715.9%−13.25
Epsom17423.5%+2.87
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 56547912.1%−104.42
Class 65256412.2%−98.84
Class 4328298.8%−100.30
Class 351611.8%−19.12
Class 23825.3%−21.25
Class 11900%−19.00
Class 7400%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite1865931.7%1.26+11.75
2nd–3rd fav3616618.3%1.12+3.32
4th–6th fav506418.1%0.97−133.00
7th+ in betting568152.6%0.68−245.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
Under 6f81510713.1%−91.37
6f – 7f582549.3%−177.17
1m – 1m1f11565.2%−81.12
1m2f – 1m4f60813.3%−2.25
1m5f – 2m3837.9%−24.52
2m1f – 2m4f11327.3%+13.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008131139.9%−34.02
20099777.2%−58.48
20101032019.4%+34.75
20111271310.2%−35.13
201210498.7%−43.00
201389910.1%−51.52
20149699.4%−18.50
20151291713.2%+21.75
20161122017.9%+25.13
20171241915.3%−16.61
2018961010.4%−29.25
20197134.2%−20.25
202058610.3%−11.00
20218167.4%−41.30
20226469.4%−21.00
2023711014.1%−23.00
20242827.1%−18.50
20252727.4%−10.00
20261300%−13.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1,34516812.5%−206.32
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners6516710.3%−171.68
11-13 runners405358.6%−131.12
5-7 runners3756617.6%+16.39
14-16 runners14464.2%−63.00
17+ runners2514%−14.00
2-4 runners21628.6%+0.48
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 84 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Hannon (3); 48 had their first archived run for this yard.
12 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
231748131314119790
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
220
Archived wins
8
Pattern / graded wins
£1.64m
Prize money
2016
Best season · 20 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 7.8% of 6,904 runs since 2008 (393 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 11.6% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.5% from 258.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 7,217 runs since 2008 (437 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.4% from 109. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1.5% from 133.
Progeny have won 6.4% of 535 runs since 2008 (46 horses).
Ishiguru (USA)9.5% · 7–74
Progeny have won 10.4% of 3,199 runs since 2008 (156 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.5% from 155.
Desert Style (IRE)15.1% · 11–73
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,544 runs since 2008 (247 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.7% from 339. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.7% from 232.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 25 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,079 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,079 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 10 September 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Malcolm Saunders's strike rate?
Malcolm Saunders has won 181 of 1,621 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.2% (as at 25 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Malcolm Saunders do best at?
Brighton by strike rate: 16 wins from 81 runners (19.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Malcolm Saunders?
Tom McLaughlin, with 278 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 30 (10.8%).
What is Malcolm Saunders's Fair A/E?
1.07, from 1,605 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Malcolm Saunders·SR 11.2%·A/E 1.07
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