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Trainer profile

Nigel Tinkler

5,252 runners in the lifetime window · 429 individual horses
As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 8.2% of 415 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 7 Nov 2026.
Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
438–5,252
Wins / Runs
8.3%
Strike rate
n=5,252
1,255 (24%)
Placed
1.01
Fair A/E
n=5,213 · 0.87 incl. margin
−1,040.49
£1 level stake
n=5,252 at SP · −19.8%
£4.11m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 280 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,252 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 29.9% when favourite Faye McManoman: 8.7% from 1,201 Claiming riders: 8.7% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Carlisle (15.5%, n=129), clear of the yard's 8.3% baseline. Debutants struggle at 1.5% (n=331, Fair A/E 0.56). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −301.00 to a £1 stake over 543 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Faye McManoman rides 23% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.7%, A/E 1.02) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (14.5%, n=330). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.1% over 282 runners, 6.2pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bombardier Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster (Sep 2020, £34,026). The stable star of the record: Athollblair Boy (IRE) — 15 wins from 135 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.5%−4.8
n=543 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −301.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4.7%−3.6
n=86 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −17.00
Debutants · first career start
1.5%−6.8
n=331 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −148.25
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7%−1.3
n=199 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −55.17
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.7%+1.4
n=145 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −36.67
When favourite
29.9%
n=338 · A/E 1.18 · £1 +16.14
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.7%+0.4
n=2,236 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −265.81
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.3%−1.0
n=41 · A/E 0.97 · £1 +6.95

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 15.6% vs 8.3% · n=436
With debutants 1.5% vs 8.3% · n=331
Off a 0-7-day break 14.5% vs 8.3% · n=330
At Carlisle 15.5% vs 8.3% · n=129
Off a break of 180+ days 2.1% vs 8.3% · n=282
With Kelly Harrison 0% vs 8.3% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 5,224 437 8.4% −1,022.49
NH Flat 13 1 7.7% −3.00
Hurdle 8 0 0% −8.00
Chase 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm 1,609 152 9.4% −243.87
Good 1,447 112 7.7% −275.93
Standard (AW) 1,088 90 8.3% −161.04
Good to Soft 602 51 8.5% −127.31
Soft 427 29 6.8% −199.59
Heavy 60 1 1.7% −56.75
Firm 19 3 15.8% +24.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 708 64 9% −26.09
Beverley 588 53 9% −130.17
Redcar 561 46 8.2% +53.74
Doncaster 422 29 6.9% −104.07
York 367 24 6.5% −129.09
Thirsk 339 18 5.3% +10.75
Ripon 328 32 9.8% −105.16
Pontefract 202 17 8.4% −76.17
Nottingham 182 15 8.2% −38.54
Southwell (AW) 153 6 3.9% −42.42
Wolverhampton (AW) 146 12 8.2% −56.41
Carlisle 129 20 15.5% +26.58
Haydock 116 6 5.2% −63.50
Musselburgh 101 8 7.9% −69.17
Leicester 94 11 11.7% +9.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 1,887 147 7.8% −311.07
Class 6 1,768 171 9.7% −277.82
Class 4 895 68 7.6% −207.67
Class 3 408 36 8.8% −98.84
Class 2 233 12 5.2% −142.04
Class 1 41 3 7.3% +6.95
Class 7 15 1 6.7% −5.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 413 118 28.6% 1.18 +11.39
2nd–3rd fav 891 129 14.5% 0.94 −195.88
4th–6th fav 1,538 118 7.7% 0.97 −345.00
7th+ in betting 2,410 73 3% 0.97 −511.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Athollblair Boy (IRE) 135 15 46 10 Jan 26
Roundhay Park (GB) 93 13 29 6 Jun 26
Bashiba (IRE) 78 10 27 14 Sep 20
Tinsill (GB) 70 5 17 7 Oct 17
Misplaced Fortune (GB) 70 7 28 25 Sep 14
Cliff (IRE) 66 5 25 3 Jul 19
Teetotal (IRE) 66 5 18 24 Oct 16
Another Investment (IRE) 60 3 16 27 Oct 26
Dandy Dinmont (IRE) 58 6 21 3 Sep 26
King Of Swords (IRE)from Tracey Collins 58 5 13 31 Aug 11
Sheepscar Lad (IRE) 57 4 17 8 May 21
Etienne Gerard (GB) 52 5 12 29 Sep 18
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 429 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 23 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Guest (2); 48 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 11
Only 11 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
89769891185118
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderFaye McManoman
23% of all rides
8.7% SR · A/E 1.02
RiderRWSR£1
Faye McManoman 1,201 104 8.7% −313.10
Rowan Scott 1,013 88 8.7% −189.18
Alex Jary 531 49 9.2% −67.59
Lewis Edmunds 237 32 13.5% −9.96
Tom Eaves 208 13 6.3% −88.25
Andrew Mullen 205 10 4.9% −87.12
Silvestre De Sousa 163 22 13.5% −28.25
Kim Tinkler 79 2 2.5% −64.00
Jason Hart 75 4 5.3% −50.75
Declan Cannon 64 3 4.7% −49.75
Danielle Mooney 59 1 1.7% −50.00
Kieran Schofield 50 1 2% −33.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
487
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£4.39m
Prize money
2021
Best season · 41 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ubettabelieveit (IRE) — Bombardier Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Doncaster · Sep 2020 · Group 2
£34,026
Squealer (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap York · Jun 2025 · Class 2
£33,501
Thesme (GB) — Betfred Apprentice Handicap York · Aug 2015 · Class 2
£31,125
Notable horses
Athollblair Boy (IRE) Roundhay Park (GB) Ginger Jam (GB) Bashiba (IRE) Kaeso (GB) Misplaced Fortune (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Awtaad (IRE) 12.6% · 24–191
Progeny have won 11.5% of 2,886 runs since 2020 (210 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.7% from 104. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.1% from 115.
Mayson (GB) 9.3% · 16–172
Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,392 runs since 2016 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 1,731. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.
Mehmas (IRE) 9.1% · 15–165
Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,224 runs since 2020 (753 horses).
Kodiac (GB) 12.8% · 19–149
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,601 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 7.5% · 11–146
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,811 runs since 2009 (938 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Dandy Man (IRE) 7.2% · 10–138
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,983 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,133 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,133 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Duran (IRE)J: Alex Jary Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 8/1
04 Nov 26 Nottingham Sergeant Mayer (IRE)J: Alex Jary Ladies Day 8th May On Sale Now Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 22/1
30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Paddy's Day (IRE)J: Alex Jary Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 3 · 5f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 16/1
30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Believeinmenow (IRE)J: Alex Jary Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 15/2
30 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Rousham (GB)J: Faye McManoman Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 13/2
30 Oct 26 Newmarket What A Girl Wants (IRE)J: Harry Davies Irish Stallion Farms Ebf 'bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 3rd 50/1
30 Oct 26 Newmarket Azuinthejungle (GB)J: Rowan Scott 157 Grosser Preis Von Baden Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 11th 12/1
28 Oct 26 Nottingham Duran (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Halloween Spooktacular Fireworks 31st Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 9/4F
27 Oct 26 Catterick Another Investment (IRE)J: Faye McManoman Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 40/1
27 Oct 26 Catterick Harry Akoya (GB)J: Faye McManoman Racing To School EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 8th 80/1
26 Oct 26 Redcar Sir David (FR)J: Faye McManoman Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 9th 9/1
24 Oct 26 Doncaster Magic Boy (GER)J: Alex Jary Rfj And Bee Jays Electrical Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 7f · Heavy · 12 ran 8th 28/1
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Maximum Velocity (IRE)J: Alex Jary All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 33/1
20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Rousham (GB)J: Faye McManoman All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 18/1
17 Oct 26 Catterick Another Investment (IRE)J: Alex Jary William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Veterans' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 10 ran 9th 33/1
16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Paddy's Day (IRE)J: Alex Jary Northumbria Leisure For Jukeboxes Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 6/1
16 Oct 26 Haydock Duran (IRE)J: Tom Marquand Shape Engineering Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Heavy · 14 ran 4th 7/1
16 Oct 26 Redcar Sir David (FR)J: Faye McManoman racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 3rd 14/1
16 Oct 26 Redcar Houndhill (GB)J: Cieren Fallon Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 9th 7/2
16 Oct 26 Redcar Sergeant Mayer (IRE)J: Faye McManoman Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 1st 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 2 runs (won 0) · to 30 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Nigel Tinkler's strike rate?
Nigel Tinkler has won 438 of 5,252 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.3% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nigel Tinkler do best at?
Carlisle by strike rate: 20 wins from 129 runners (15.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nigel Tinkler?
Faye McManoman, with 1,201 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 104 (8.7%).
Is Nigel Tinkler in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 11 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Nigel Tinkler's Fair A/E?
1.01, from 5,213 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 7 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).