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Trainer profile

Richard Mitchell

469 runners in the lifetime window · 51 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2023
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
22–469
Wins / Runs
4.7%
Strike rate
n=469
81 (17%)
Placed
0.77
Fair A/E
n=468 · 0.66 incl. margin
−180.84
£1 level stake
n=469 at SP · −38.6%
£153k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).

Deterministic profile computed from 469 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Johnny Farrelly: 2% from 51 Claiming riders: 5.3%
The read

The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.48 and −70.00 to a £1 stake over 104 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Johnny Farrelly rides 11% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (2% vs 4.7%, A/E 0.30). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (12.9%, n=85) and on Heavy going (11.9%, n=59). The record reads poorly in Flat races — 0% over 85 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 6: Fair A/E 0.00 across 68 runners (0% strike, −68.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Thundering Home (GB) — 9 wins from 74 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.9%−2.8
n=104 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −70.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.7
n=24 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −24.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.7
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.7
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.5%+5.8
n=19 · A/E 2.36 · £1 +13.50
When favourite
15.4%
n=13 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −5.67
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.3%+0.6
n=283 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −124.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.7
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Tom Bellamy 14.9% vs 4.7% · n=47
Off a 8-14-day break 12.9% vs 4.7% · n=85
On Heavy going 11.9% vs 4.7% · n=59
With Charlie Huxley 12.5% vs 4.7% · n=32
In Flat races 0% vs 4.7% · n=85
In Class 6 0% vs 4.7% · n=68
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 207 13 6.3% +5.66
Chase 155 9 5.8% −79.50
Flat 85 0 0% −85.00
NH Flat 22 0 0% −22.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 126 2 1.6% −110.00
Good to Soft 89 8 9% −10.84
Soft 86 4 4.7% +9.00
Good to Firm 63 1 1.6% −59.00
Heavy 59 7 11.9% +36.00
Standard (AW) 39 0 0% −39.00
Firm 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton 72 5 6.9% −1.67
Fontwell 50 2 4% −38.00
Chepstow 49 3 6.1% −23.00
Exeter 48 4 8.3% +50.00
Plumpton 32 3 9.4% −9.17
Newton Abbot 25 0 0% −25.00
Taunton 24 0 0% −24.00
Lingfield (AW) 23 0 0% −23.00
Salisbury 13 0 0% −13.00
Brighton 12 0 0% −12.00
Kempton (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00
Worcester 9 0 0% −9.00
Bath 9 0 0% −9.00
Newbury 8 0 0% −8.00
Kempton 8 1 12.5% +21.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 206 13 6.3% −33.67
Class 5 144 6 4.2% −40.67
Class 6 68 0 0% −68.00
Class 3 42 3 7.1% −29.50
Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 18 3 16.7% 0.68 −6.67
2nd–3rd fav 60 9 15% 1.00 −4.67
4th–6th fav 140 5 3.6% 0.57 −75.50
7th+ in betting 251 5 2% 0.78 −94.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
71.8% completed · 362 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 155 69% 7 3 38 0 0
Hurdle 207 73.9% 3 4 46 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Thundering Home (GB)from George Baker 74 9 23 15 Nov 18
Massini Sunset (IRE) 57 8 17 12 Apr 13
Benbecula (GB)from J P Murtagh 47 2 14 19 Oct 18
Bedibyes (GB) 30 0 3 9 Apr 15
Kiltimoney (IRE) 26 0 12 15 Apr 11
Pour Une Raison (FR)then Harriet Brown 21 1 1 14 May 23
Machiavelian Storm (IRE)from Michael Herrington 20 0 0 25 Jun 19
Lethal Gun (IRE) 15 0 0 1 Oct 11
Paddy The Yank (IRE) 11 0 0 27 Apr 12
Reillys Daughter (GB)from Laura Mongan 9 0 1 19 Apr 14
Knockvicar (IRE)from P A Fahy 9 0 0 1 Nov 10
Alam (USA)from Dr Richard Newland 9 0 1 15 Mar 10
All 51 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 51 horses listed, 24 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John Brassil (4) and Brendan Powell (2); 27 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard, most often for Mrs E Mitchell (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
13410440000252
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJohnny Farrelly
11% of all rides
2% SR · A/E 0.30
RiderRWSR£1
Johnny Farrelly 51 1 2% −46.50
Tom Bellamy 47 7 14.9% +84.00
Charlie Huxley 32 4 12.5% −4.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
28
Archived wins
£235k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kittenkat (GB) — Hythe Handicap Chase Folkestone · Jan 2005 · Class 4
£8,125
Massini Sunset (IRE) — This Is Bristol.co.uk Handicap Chase Chepstow · Mar 2009 · Class 3
£6,505
Thundering Home (GB) — Livingstones Insurance Services Yeovil Handicap Hurdle Wincanton · Jan 2015 · Class 3
£6,498
Notable horses
Thundering Home (GB) Massini Sunset (IRE) Benbecula (GB) Kittenkat (GB) Kiltimoney (IRE) Denarius Secundus (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Storming Home (GB) 12.2% · 9–74
Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,325 runs since 2008 (67 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 206.
Dr Massini (IRE) 14% · 8–57
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Motivator (GB) 4.3% · 2–47
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,591 runs since 2009 (515 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 16% from 1,089. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.8% from 1,281. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.2% from 593. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.7% from 574.
Sleeping Indian (GB) 0% · 0–30
Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,715 runs since 2010 (238 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.9% from 108.
Kasmayo (GB) 0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 4.8% of 84 runs since 2008 (12 horses).
Deltic (USA) 8.7% · 2–23
Progeny have won 10.3% of 29 runs since 2008 (8 horses). A small sample.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 686 · newest first

The latest 50 of 686 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 14 May 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 May 23 Plumpton Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Brendan Powell Lulu And Peter Mendoza Memorial Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25f · Good · 12 ran 8th 50/1
27 Apr 23 Warwick Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Bryony Frost Watch On Racing TV Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 15 ran PU 22/1
12 Feb 23 Exeter Bellissimo Milan (IRE)J: Philip Armson Virgin Bet British Stallion Studs EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 100/1
05 Feb 23 Hereford Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Philip Armson Cazoo Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 33/1
20 Nov 22 Exeter Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Philip Armson Watch On Racing Tv Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 4th 18/1
20 Nov 22 Exeter Bellissimo Milan (IRE)J: Finn Lambert Devon Air Ambulance Trust Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 23f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 300/1
04 Nov 22 Fontwell Pour Une Raison (FR)J: James Best Supporting The Chichester Foodbank Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 50/1
06 Oct 22 Warwick Bellissimo Milan (IRE)J: Harry Bannister Heathcote Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 100/1
01 Oct 22 Fontwell Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Finn Lambert Download The Vickers.Bet App Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 26f · Good · 8 ran 6th 33/1
16 Sep 22 Newton Abbot Bellissimo Milan (IRE)J: Finn Lambert Sky Sports Racing On Sky 415 Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 40/1
25 May 22 Warwick Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Toby Wynne Wigley Property Raceday Amateur Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Good · 8 ran PU 9/1
14 Apr 22 Exeter Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Gavin Sheehan Heart Of Oak Pinhoe Exeter Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 9 ran PU 6/1
21 Mar 22 Plumpton Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Tom Bellamy Watch Live Racing At Your Local Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 5 ran F 3/1
01 Feb 22 Ffos Las Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Tom Bellamy Cazoo Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 17 ran PU 66/1
20 Jan 22 Wincanton Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Harry Bannister Follow RacingTV On Instagram Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25f · Good To Soft · 7 ran PU 18/1
31 Dec 21 Warwick Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Tom Bellamy Poundland - Where Great Prices Rule Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 26f · Heavy · 6 ran 6th 25/1
11 Dec 21 Hereford Pour Une Raison (FR)J: James Best Black Mountain Botanicals Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 25.5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 33/1
10 Nov 21 Exeter Pour Une Raison (FR)J: Finn Lambert Exeter Racecourse Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 23f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 12th 20/1
14 Oct 21 Wincanton Milberry (IRE)J: Jordan Nailor Follow MansionBet On Twitter Conditional Jockeys' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25f · Good To Firm · 11 ran F 66/1
11 Jun 21 Newton Abbot Filthy Lucca (GB)J: Page Fuller Watch Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 15 ran PU 66/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Richard Mitchell's strike rate?
Richard Mitchell has won 22 of 469 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.7% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Richard Mitchell do best at?
Plumpton by strike rate: 3 wins from 32 runners (9.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Richard Mitchell?
Johnny Farrelly, with 51 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (2%).
What is Richard Mitchell's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 468 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).