Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.14).
Deterministic profile computed from 122 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=41, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well in Flat races (16.1%, n=31) and off a 15-30-day break (14.7%, n=34). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 0% over 32 runners, 5.7pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.55 across 68 runners (2.9% strike, −62.38 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.7
n=41 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −41.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.7
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.7
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
100%
n=2 · A/E 3.73 · £1 +3.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
1.4%−4.3
n=72 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −57.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Flat races16.1% vs 5.7% · n=31
Off a 15-30-day break14.7% vs 5.7% · n=34
Over 2m1f – 2m4f0% vs 5.7% · n=32
With claiming riders up1.4% vs 5.7% · n=72
On Good going9.1% vs 5.7% · n=33
In Hurdle races2.9% vs 5.7% · n=68
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle6822.9%−62.38
Flat31516.1%+44.25
NH Flat2000%−20.00
Chase300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good3339.1%+14.37
Soft3013.3%−27.00
Heavy2900%−29.00
Standard (AW)14321.4%+16.50
Good to Firm900%−9.00
Good to Soft700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wexford1516.7%−12.00
Gowran Park1516.7%−11.25
Dundalk (AW)14321.4%+16.50
Tramore11218.2%+32.62
Fairyhouse1000%−10.00
Cork900%−9.00
Clonmel600%−6.00
Punchestown600%−6.00
Limerick500%−5.00
Thurles500%−5.00
Roscommon400%−4.00
Kilbeggan300%−3.00
Tipperary300%−3.00
Naas300%−3.00
Killarney300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite4250%2.27+1.62
2nd–3rd fav12216.7%1.12−1.75
4th–6th fav1715.9%0.87−8.00
7th+ in betting8922.2%0.87−33.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m6134.9%−14.38
2m1f – 2m4f3200%−32.00
1m2f – 1m4f18316.7%+12.50
2m5f – 3m500%−5.00
6f – 7f3133.3%+0.75
Under 6f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008200%−2.00
20091300%−13.00
20101000%−10.00
20111300%−13.00
20121000%−10.00
201316212.5%−10.38
2014700%−7.00
2015100%−1.00
20161100%−11.00
2017100%−1.00
2020100%−1.00
2023100%−1.00
2024200%−2.00
202519210.5%+5.00
202615320%+36.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps7779.1%+3.87
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners5547.3%−24.25
17+ runners3600%−36.00
11-13 runners18316.7%+32.12
8-10 runners1100%−11.00
5-7 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 20 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 20 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gordon Elliott (2); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
330000014002090
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,639 runs since 2018 (160 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.7% from 179. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 11.5% from 253.
Fruits Of Love (USA)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 8.7% of 2,777 runs since 2008 (221 horses). Strongest on Good going: 11.8% from 944. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 182. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 4% from 150.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 122 · newest first
The latest 50 of 122 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 December 2008 to 30 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is William Delahunty's strike rate?
William Delahunty has won 7 of 122 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is William Delahunty in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is William Delahunty's Fair A/E?
1.14, from 122 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
William Delahunty·SR 5.7%·A/E 1.14
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