2:05 York
A deep 20-runner Class 2 handicap over 1m2f56y on soft ground at York promises a thorough test. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top with three horses tied on 63, underlining the competitive nature of the race and the value of the supplied figures in separating the principals from the rest of a large field. With a strong pace anticipated, the ability to settle and produce a finishing effort late on soft ground will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners. Grey Cuban and Water To Wine are both noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the latter stages. This shape poses the key question of whether the prominent runners can sustain their effort on the testing ground or if the race will fall to one of the many hold-up performers coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Grey Cuban KTB Selection63/100
Grey Cuban is a smart performer who has won at this trip and at York itself. His recent placed efforts in the form of 130-23 keep him competitive at this level even though he has failed to land a race since last summer. The Hugo Palmer and David Probert combination both carry modest strike rates at the track while the wide draw in stall 14 in a big field adds another negative on soft ground where he has placed on two of four starts but never won. As the KTB selection he is taken to put it all together in a race that could suit his front-running style if the pace collapses late.
-
2Say What You See63/100
Say What You See is a useful performer who has won once from two runs at York and drops back from 1m6f to a trip he has won twice from seven attempts. His recent form of 211233 shows consistent placed efforts in competitive races though he has yet to win on soft ground from three starts. The Liam Bailey yard records a solid 14% strike-rate at the track while the jockey Billy Garritty sits on a more modest 8%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse.
-
3Nobody Knows63/100
Nobody Knows is a useful performer who showed plenty of promise when winning on debut at this trip on soft ground. He steps up in trip today having last run over a mile so it is a fresh question at 1m2f. The Richard Hughes yard and jockey Finley Marsh both have solid records at York. With only limited evidence of his run-style he is expected to be held up and produce his effort late in a race where the strong pace could play into the hands of closers.
-
4Thunder Run62/100
Thunder Run is a smart performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a win at today's trip on his record. He has been in and out this season but showed his ability when winning at Newmarket in July before a lesser effort last time. The K R Burke yard has a solid 9% strike rate at York while the 3lb claimer Jack Nicholls helps offset the rise in trip on soft ground where he has already placed. Usually held up with high confidence, he should be well positioned to capitalise if the leaders come back to him.
-
5Yabher59/100
Yabher is a useful performer who won twice at this trip earlier in his career but has been well below form in three of his last four starts. Dropping back from 1m4f looks a plus yet he was well beaten on his only previous run here and remains unproven on soft ground. The William Haggas and Tom Marquand partnership both hold solid records at York. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace in what could be a race won from behind.
-
6Shadow Road58/100
Shadow Road is a useful performer on the back of just three runs and still open to improvement. Last time out win came over a longer trip so the drop back in distance today asks a fresh question. The John Butler yard has a solid record at York but the jockey David Egan's figures here are more modest while he remains unproven on soft ground.
-
7Lord Melbourne56/100
Lord Melbourne is a useful performer who has won over this trip and showed his only visit to York was a winning one. He drops back from 1m4f which should suit him better though his recent form has been patchy. The Ralph Beckett and Jason Hart combination both have solid records at the track and he has a win and a place from two runs on soft ground.
-
8Old Harrovian55/100
Old Harrovian is a useful performer who has won over today's trip and arrives in decent order after a solid sixth last time. He has no experience on soft ground and finished a tailed-off last of 13 when he tried this track before. The Andrew Balding and P J McDonald partnership both have solid records at York.
-
9French Duke55/100
French Duke is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third from two runs here. He has handled soft ground competently in the past and is dropping back in trip from a recent 1m5½f run, having already placed once at this distance. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at York from 18 runs tempers expectations despite the horse's solid ratings and course connections.
-
10Water To Wine55/100
Water To Wine is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts and looks open to more improvement. He drops back in trip today having last run over 1m4f which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also a new factor. The John & Thady Gosden yard has a solid 20% strike rate at York though the 3lb claimer is still seeking his first success from five rides here and he remains unproven on soft ground.
-
11Have Secret53/100
Have Secret is a useful performer who has run 11 times at York without winning but has shown enough placed form to stay competitive at this level. Recent efforts have been ordinary and the wide draw in stall 18 is far from ideal on soft ground. The Richard & Peter Fahey yard and jockey Warren Fentiman both have modest strike rates here yet their A/E figures suggest they are not out of it on the figures.
-
12Paddy The Squire53/100
Paddy The Squire is a smart performer who has run well at this track without winning, finishing third on his latest visit. He has solid form at today's trip and has handled soft ground in the past, though his recent efforts have been a bit mixed. The Iain Jardine and Andrew Mullen partnership both have modest strike rates here.
-
13Insanity53/100
Insanity is a useful performer who has run well at this track on two of his four visits without managing to win. He drops back in trip today having last run over a mile and a half, though he is proven at this distance. The Alan King yard's modest strike rate at York is a negative while the jockey Sean Levey's record here is solid.
-
14My Love Is King51/100
My Love Is King is a useful performer who has finished second twice this year and ran creditably when fifth in a strong handicap at Ascot last time. The John & Thady Gosden yard is in excellent form at York and the colt has already shown he handles this trip. Going suitability remains unknown on just five career starts.
-
15Ancestor51/100
Ancestor is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts at this trip and arrives in solid form after a respectable sixth in a stronger race last time. The William Haggas yard has a strong 18% strike-rate at York while the yard's runners here often perform to their ratings. Harry Davies has a modest 4% record at the track from 52 rides and the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal on soft ground.
-
16St Anton50/100
St Anton is a useful performer who has won twice this year but has been hit and miss since, finishing seventh of 11 when last seen here. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while he remains unproven on soft ground. The Richard Hannon yard has a solid 11% strike rate at York from a big sample, though the jockey Joe Leavy is still seeking his first winner from 15 rides at the track.
-
17Castle Stuart46/100
Castle Stuart is a fair handicapper who has been a regular at York and placed on three of his seven starts here without winning. He acts on soft ground with a win and a place from just two runs and has also placed at this trip on four of nine attempts. The Richard & Peter Fahey yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at the track while Barry McHugh is 4% from 267 rides here.
-
18Stoneacre Donny44/100
Stoneacre Donny is a fair 3-year-old who has already won over this trip and on soft ground. He showed his liking for the track when successful here from four runs and his recent form includes a win and two placed efforts. The Tim Easterby yard's modest strike-rate at York is a negative but the horse's own course and ground record is a plus.
-
19Wahdan41/100
Wahdan is a fair performer who has placed once from four runs at York without winning. He has won at today's trip but is unproven on soft ground and the 5 lb claimer has yet to score from 20 rides at the track. The Tim Easterby yard's modest strike-rate here adds to the negatives from stall 16.
-
20Wyld Bill40/100
Wyld Bill is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 11 attempts and arrives in decent nick on the back of recent placed efforts. He has had only one run on soft ground so far and that brought no joy, while he has never been to York before. Both trainer and jockey have too few runs at the track to draw any firm conclusions.
KTB verdict
Grey Cuban is the KTB selection in a race where the strong pace is likely to test the prominent runners to their limits on soft ground. His York course win, ability at the trip and recent competitive form keep him firmly in the picture despite the wide draw and modest course records for trainer and jockey. The main dangers are the hold-up performers who could benefit if the pace collapses, notably Say What You See with his York record and Thunder Run who has won twice at the track.
KTB Selection Grey Cuban
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the York results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the York racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses are favoured as the strong pace could collapse late. Say What You See, Nobody Knows, Thunder Run and Yabher are among those noted as usually held up.
How has Grey Cuban performed on soft ground previously?
He has placed on two of four starts on soft but has never won on the surface.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at York in this field?
John & Thady Gosden have a 20% strike rate, William Haggas 18%, Richard Hughes 16% and Liam Bailey 14%.
Which horses have previous winning form at York?
Grey Cuban, Say What You See, Thunder Run, Lord Melbourne and Stoneacre Donny have all won at the track.
What is the significance of the first-time headgear on Water To Wine?
It is a new factor for a horse who has won two of his three starts and is open to more improvement.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies