3:17 York
This Class 2 Sky Bet Sprint Trophy Heritage Handicap over six furlongs on soft ground at York features a maximum field of 22, promising a competitive sprint in testing conditions. The KTB Fit ratings identify a tight group at the top, headed by Binhareer on 63, with Dark Thirty (61), Pellitory (60), Ardisia (59) and Old Is Gold (57) completing the principals in a race where recent form is mixed and course records vary widely. Overall the numbers point to a race that will be decided by how well the principals handle the strong pace and the demands of soft ground from their respective draws.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be run at a searching gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable late on. Dark Thirty and Old Is Gold are the most likely to take the field along from their respective stalls, while the majority of the field, including the selection, are hold-up types who will be looking to pick up the pieces. This sets up a key question of whether the pace will collapse in the final furlong, allowing those coming from off the pace, particularly those drawn middle to high, to capitalise in the testing conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Binhareer KTB Selection63/100
Binhareer is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track. His recent form of 1-2649 has been patchy yet the York record and a soft-ground win provide solid reasons to expect a competitive run from stall 9. William Haggas maintains an 18% strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.03 from 789 runs, while Tom Marquand posts a 14% record from 345 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to the strong pace that is anticipated. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 21% strike rate together from 2150 runs with an A/E of 0.91.
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2Dark Thirty61/100
Dark Thirty is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with six wins from 24 attempts. He has been competitive on soft ground without winning and his recent form of 120030 shows he can still produce strong efforts. The John & Sean Quinn yard has a 13% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.21 from 47 runs, while Jason Hart operates at 8% from 360 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is likely to be prominent early in what is forecast to be a strong gallop. The trainer and jockey show an 11% strike rate together from 628 runs with an A/E of 0.78.
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3Pellitory60/100
Pellitory is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third in three runs here. He acts on soft ground with a win and two places from just two starts on it, while his record shows he has won over today's 6f trip in the past. The drop back from 7f looks a sensible move. David O'Meara has a 7% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.77 from 1187 runs and Daniel Tudhope posts a 10% record from 877 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be ideally placed if the strong pace collapses. The trainer and jockey combination has a 15% strike rate from 4903 runs with an A/E of 0.89.
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4Ardisia59/100
Ardisia is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this level. He has run well at York before and acts on soft ground with three wins at today's trip from ten attempts. Hugo Palmer and David Probert both have modest strike rates here, the trainer at 7% with an A/E of 0.7 from 166 runs and the jockey at 9% from 171 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is another who could benefit if the leaders go too hard. The trainer and jockey show a 12% strike rate together from 157 runs with an A/E of 1.06.
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5Old Is Gold57/100
Old Is Gold is a useful performer who has won two of his last three starts and handles soft ground well with a win from his only attempt. York form is modest though, finishing fifth and twelfth from two runs here, and the wide draw in stall 21 adds difficulty in a big-field sprint. Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.08 from 530 runs, while P. J. McDonald posts a 10% record from 487 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could set or share the strong gallop. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 19% strike rate from 376 runs with an A/E of 0.97, though he steps up in class.
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6Al Shabab Storm56/100
Al Shabab Storm is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after a win and two solid placed efforts in his last three starts. He acts on soft ground with two wins from four runs and has scored at this trip before, though he steps back up in distance today. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at York from 202 runs and the jockey's 0% record from seven rides add clear negatives.
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7Wiltshire54/100
Wiltshire is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip from 16 attempts and arrives off the back of a patchy recent record of 510000. He has placed once from four starts on soft ground and first-time headgear is now fitted. The yard has an 18% strike-rate at York while the jockey is operating at 4% from 52 rides here.
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8Coul Angel54/100
Coul Angel is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year and has run well at this track on two of three visits. Drawn in stall one which could be an advantage on soft ground where he has already shown he handles the surface. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at York.
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9Rock On Thunder54/100
Rock On Thunder is a useful performer who has shown his best form at this trip, winning once from nine attempts. He has already placed here at York and the yard's solid record at the track adds some confidence, yet he is unproven on soft ground and his recent form has been patchy. Stall 16 looks far from ideal on a straight track.
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10Strike Red53/100
Strike Red is a useful performer who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has a solid record on soft ground with two wins and two places from eight starts. He has won at this trip and the yard and jockey both have respectable strike rates here. First-time headgear is now tried on a horse that has been a regular in big-field sprints.
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11Fine Interview52/100
Fine Interview is a useful performer who has won six times at this trip but arrives in modest recent form after a 9-1-0-7-4 sequence. He handles soft ground well with five wins from nine starts and has the benefit of first-time headgear. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 6% strike rate at York from modest sample sizes while the horse himself has shown little here on his one previous run.
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12U Sure Do52/100
U Sure Do is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip and looks comfortable on soft ground with a win and three places from four attempts. He has been placed once from four runs at York and his recent form includes two wins in the last month. The yard's modest strike-rate here is offset by the jockey's solid record at the track.
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13Apollo One50/100
Apollo One is a fair performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has placed without winning in five runs at York and the yard also has a poor record here. He acts on soft ground and has won over today's trip in the past though he steps back up from a shorter distance today.
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14Annaf50/100
Annaf is a useful performer who has run respectably at this track without winning, finishing in the first five on two of his four visits. He acts well on soft ground with two wins from three starts and has a solid record at this trip including six victories. The yard's modest strike rate here tempers expectations despite the jockey's better record at the course.
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15Red Spells Danger50/100
Red Spells Danger is a useful performer who has run six times at York without winning but has placed here and shown he handles the track. He has won three times at this trip from eight attempts yet his only try on soft ground brought no reward. High data confidence but both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track.
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16Grasmere Boy50/100
Grasmere Boy is a useful performer who has won three of his five starts at this trip and arrives in solid form having landed two of his last three races. He acts on soft ground though the small sample means that remains unconfirmed. The yard and jockey both have modest records at York.
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17Alfa Kellenic48/100
Alfa Kellenic is a useful performer who has won both starts at this track and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form is patchy and he is 0-2 on soft ground so far. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
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18Advertised48/100
Advertised is a useful performer who has shown enough at this trip to stay competitive at Class 2 level. York record reads 11th and 4th while the single run on soft ground produced no win or place. Trainer strikes at 7% here from 121 runs and jockey at 10% from 268 rides.
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19Toyotomi47/100
Toyotomi is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip and shown his only soft-ground success came from five attempts. He arrives in reasonable form having won one of his last six starts but has never run at York before. The trainer has a modest 7% strike-rate here from a large sample while the jockey is even quieter at 4%.
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20Hammer The Hammer45/100
Hammer The Hammer is a useful performer on his day but has been out of form for some time and the recent string of five straight defeats tells its own story. York record is modest with no placed efforts from three runs and the trainer's 8% strike rate here from a big sample is no better than average. Stiff task from stall 14 on soft ground where he has shown little.
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21Trilby44/100
Trilby is a fair performer who has shown up well at York in the past with two placings from seven runs here. He acts on soft ground and has won at today's trip in the past though he is stepping back up from 5f today. The yard has a poor record at the track and stall 20 is far from ideal.
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22Jordan Electrics40/100
Jordan Electrics is a fair performer who has run five times here without winning though he has been placed once. He steps up to 6f today having last run over 5f and holds a solid record at the trip with five wins from 27 starts. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 414 runs at York is matched by the jockey's 0% from 20 rides here.
KTB verdict
Binhareer is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with a prior win over course and distance, he has the York record and soft-ground ability to take advantage of the strong pace that is likely to unfold, with his hold-up style perfectly suited to a race that could collapse late from stall 9. The combination of William Haggas and Tom Marquand at this track adds further confidence. His main dangers are likely to come from Dark Thirty, who could set the pace and has a strong York record, Pellitory, who is well suited by the drop back in trip and the ground, and Ardisia, who has shown consistent placed form and soft-ground prowess.
KTB Selection Binhareer
This is the narrative read of the 3:17 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the York results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the York racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Binhareer and Pellitory, both usually held up and producing their effort late with high confidence, are well placed if the pace collapses as the strong pace shape suggests.
How does Binhareer's course record compare to the rest of the field?
Binhareer has won here from two runs, while Dark Thirty has won twice from six, Pellitory is placed without winning from three, Ardisia is placed from one, and Old Is Gold has modest form from two runs.
Which trainers have the strongest records at York in this race?
William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.03 from 789 runs for both Binhareer and Wiltshire, while Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 1.08 from 530 runs for Old Is Gold.
How many horses in the field are proven on soft ground?
Several are proven, including Binhareer with one win from four, Dark Thirty placed once from four, Pellitory with one win from two, Ardisia with one win from two, and others such as Al Shabab Storm with two wins from four.
What impact could the draw have given the pace shape?
Stall 21 for Old Is Gold and stall 22 for Red Spells Danger are wide in a big field on a straight track, while stall 1 for Coul Angel and stall 9 for Binhareer look more favourable if the strong pace collapses late.
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