5:20 Doncaster
This Class 4 apprentice handicap over 6f at Doncaster features a field of 16 three-year-olds and upwards on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Evening Blues heading the list on 65, closely followed by Topwarrior on 63 and a pair on 61. The race looks competitive on paper, though the KTB numbers suggest a few with stronger recent form and track records stand out from the remainder.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, as Ay Up Duck is the only confirmed front-runner and is likely to be allowed an uncontested lead. The remainder of the field is dominated by hold-up types, with the principals all preferring to come from off the pace. This setup poses the key question of whether the leader can dictate and hold on or if the closers will be able to bridge the gap on this stiff track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Evening Blues KTB Selection65/100
Evening Blues is a fair 3-year-old with a solid enough record for the grade, showing consistency by placing three times from 11 starts including two placings over today's trip. He has handled good ground well enough to be competitive without winning and his latest efforts suggest he remains in reasonable form. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Doncaster from a small sample with an A/E of 4.22, while the 3lb claimer has a 12% strike rate from 17 rides here with an A/E of 1.12. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he is drawn in stall 11 in a race where the pace is likely to be up front with little pressure. Recent form of -57203 underlines his consistency at this level.
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2Topwarrior63/100
Topwarrior is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form this year with three heavy defeats from his last four starts. He has course experience but pulled up the only time he ran here and his placed effort on good ground came from just three attempts. The trainer holds a 15% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 0.91 from 417 runs, while the jockey has an above-par A/E of 1.22 from nine rides at the track. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he drops in class from a wide draw of 13. His recent form of 01-000 reflects the current lull in his fortunes.
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3Archduke Ferdinand61/100
Archduke Ferdinand is a fair sort who has won over this trip and at this track. He has a solid record on good ground with two wins and two places from 10 starts and brings strong recent form into the race with figures of 304120. The yard has a 9% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.13 from 58 runs, while the 3lb claimer has a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.47 from 15 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late from a low draw of 3, he has won once from seven runs at the course. The combination of course success, good-ground prowess and recent competitiveness makes him a major player.
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4Sixtygeesbaby61/100
Sixtygeesbaby is a fair performer who has won over this trip and on this ground with two wins from seven starts on good. He has won here from three runs at Doncaster and arrives in reasonable form after a recent win with figures of 085513. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.75 from 816 runs, but this is offset by the jockey's strong 29% record from 14 limited rides with an A/E of 2.84. Usually held up and producing its effort late from stall 4, he steps up in class. His course-and-distance ability and recent progress are clear assets.
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5Dandy Magic57/100
Dandy Magic is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning often lately, with recent form reading 444313. He has won once from four starts on good ground and three times from 19 at this trip, though he is making his first visit to Doncaster today. The trainer has a 9% strike rate from 498 runs here with an A/E of 1.00, while the jockey is 13% from only eight rides with an A/E of 1.29. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 7, he brings a string of solid efforts without quite landing a blow of late.
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6Jenever54/100
Jenever is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with a string of placed efforts including a second here over this trip. He has won on good ground and at today's distance though he is now 0-15 on this surface in the last two seasons, with the trainer and jockey both holding solid records at Doncaster.
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7Ay Up Duck54/100
Ay Up Duck is a fair performer who won on this track as a juvenile and has scored once at today's trip. Dropping in class from 7f having been out of form on his last three starts, he is the sole front-runner likely to set the pace, though he has only one run on good with no win or place.
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8Purest Time53/100
Purest Time is a fair performer on his day but has been largely out of form this year with a recent record of 071790. He has won three times at this trip though looks stretched by the step back up to 6f here, while his record on good ground is only modest with one placing from five starts.
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9Rotokura Belle50/100
Rotokura Belle is a modest performer on the balance of her 18 runs and recent form. She has won twice on good ground from eight attempts though has no win in two starts at this trip, with the jockey holding a solid record at the track on her first visit to Doncaster.
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10Shazani48/100
Shazani is a fair handicapper who has won twice at this track from nine runs and arrives in decent nick after two recent wins. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before, with the yard holding a solid 10% strike-rate here from a big sample.
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11Mo of Cairo44/100
Mo of Cairo is a fair performer who has shown consistent ability without winning, placing once at today's trip and once on good ground. He has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts after an early second, and both trainer and jockey have modest records at the track.
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12Charlie Mason43/100
Charlie Mason is a modest performer who has won here once from two starts and also has a solid record at today's trip. He has won on good ground but his recent form has been patchy, with both trainer and jockey holding modest records at Doncaster.
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13Miraculous43/100
Miraculous is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and ran no sort of race when seventh of eight here on his only previous visit to Doncaster. He has won three times at this trip but his record on good ground is only modest.
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14Raatea42/100
Raatea is a modest performer with a solid course record that includes a second and a third here over this trip. Now a 9-year-old and out of the frame in his last two starts, he has placed on good ground without winning.
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15Another Investment41/100
Another Investment is a modest performer who has run to form on his last two starts yet remains winless in 2024. He has won over this trip and at this track but is drawn widest in a big field which adds to the negatives given the yard's modest record here.
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16Arduis Invicta37/100
Arduis Invicta is a fair performer who has been running consistently without winning lately. Drawn in stall 1 with some placed form on good ground and at this trip, the yard's poor record at Doncaster is a clear negative.
KTB verdict
Evening Blues is the KTB Selection. He brings a solid and consistent record for the grade, with placed efforts over the trip and on the ground, and his trainer's small-sample record at the track is eye-catching. The hold-up run-style should be suited if the uncontested lead sets up a strong pace to close into. His main dangers are Archduke Ferdinand, who has course form, good-ground wins and strong recent efforts, and Sixtygeesbaby, who has won over course and distance and arrives in form despite the class rise.
KTB Selection Evening Blues
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to set the uncontested lead?
Ay Up Duck is the sole front-runner and should be allowed an uncontested lead given the pace shape and that the rest of the field consists of hold-up types.
How many course winners are in the field?
Archduke Ferdinand, Sixtygeesbaby, Ay Up Duck, Shazani, Charlie Mason and Another Investment have all won at Doncaster.
Which jockey has the strongest record at Doncaster in this race?
Conor Whiteley has a 29% strike rate at Doncaster from 14 rides with an A/E of 2.84.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at the track among the principals?
Stephen Hanlon has a 50% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 4.22 from two runs.
How many of the principals are making their first visit to Doncaster?
Evening Blues and Dandy Magic have no course form on record.
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