Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.45).
Deterministic profile computed from 220 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026
The read
The market has consistently overbet the yard on Heavy going: Fair A/E 0.68 across 57 runners (3.5% strike, −37.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tatts Ltd Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase at Punchestown (Apr 2006, £35,805).
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−1.8
n=59 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −59.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.8
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.8
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.8
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
When favourite
0%
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0%−1.8
n=72 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −72.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break4.3% vs 1.8% · n=70
With claiming riders up0% vs 1.8% · n=72 · A/E 0.00
On Heavy going3.5% vs 1.8% · n=57 · A/E 0.68
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle9533.2%−54.00
Chase7611.3%−63.00
Flat3400%−34.00
NH Flat1500%−15.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft7822.6%−44.00
Heavy5723.5%−37.00
Good4400%−44.00
Good to Soft2300%−23.00
Good to Firm1200%−12.00
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Limerick2114.8%−11.00
Ballinrobe1900%−19.00
Galway1616.3%−3.00
Clonmel1317.7%−3.00
Navan1100%−11.00
Fairyhouse1100%−11.00
Tramore1000%−10.00
Roscommon1000%−10.00
Downpatrick900%−9.00
Gowran Park900%−9.00
Sligo900%−9.00
Cork800%−8.00
Down Royal700%−7.00
Thurles700%−7.00
Kilbeggan7114.3%+14.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4700%−7.00
Class 5300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite400%0.00−4.00
2nd–3rd fav1218.3%0.74−2.00
4th–6th fav3825.3%0.74−15.00
7th+ in betting16610.6%0.24−145.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f8522.4%−62.00
1m5f – 2m7111.4%−61.00
2m5f – 3m3013.3%−9.00
1m2f – 1m4f1800%−18.00
6f – 7f600%−6.00
1m – 1m1f500%−5.00
Over 3m500%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20082800%−28.00
20091616.3%−6.00
20101815.6%−8.00
20112800%−28.00
20121815.6%−5.00
2013900%−9.00
2014600%−6.00
20151200%−12.00
20161900%−19.00
2017900%−9.00
2018900%−9.00
20194125%+17.00
20201300%−13.00
20211300%−13.00
2022900%−9.00
2023900%−9.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps13443%−80.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners7922.5%−48.00
11-13 runners6511.5%−52.00
17+ runners4312.3%−33.00
8-10 runners2700%−27.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 32 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 32 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from M O Cullinane (3); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.
9 have since run for another yard, most often for Paul W Flynn (2); 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
700600000406
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
12
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£173k
Prize money
2006
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
One Four Shannon (IRE) — Tatts (Ire) Ltd Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase (0-145) Punchestown · Apr 2006 · Grade B
Progeny have won 9% of 2,997 runs since 2008 (213 horses).
Heron Island (IRE)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,819 runs since 2008 (317 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 162.
Quws (GB)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 6.6% of 824 runs since 2008 (72 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 10.5% from 105.
Beneficial (GB)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,044 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 425 · newest first
The latest 50 of 425 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 January 2005 to 1 December 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is D J Ryan's strike rate?
D J Ryan has won 4 of 220 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.8% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is D J Ryan's Fair A/E?
0.45, from 219 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
D J Ryan·SR 1.8%·A/E 0.45
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