What is Denis Paul Murphy's strike rate?

Denis Paul Murphy has won 12 of 283 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Denis Paul Murphy do best at?

Punchestown by strike rate: 4 wins from 68 runners (5.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is Denis Paul Murphy's Fair A/E?

0.85, from 281 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Denis Paul Murphy

283 runners in the lifetime window · 83 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 28 days ago 98% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

12–283

Wins / Runs

4.2%

Strike rate

n=283

47 (17%)

Placed

0.85

Fair A/E

n=281 · 0.66 incl. margin

−134.81

£1 level stake

n=283 at SP · −47.6%

£256k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85).

Deterministic profile computed from 283 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–Apr

The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.54 and −93.00 to a £1 stake over 153 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (10%, n=30). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 50 runners, 4.2pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.20 across 92 runners (1.1% strike, −71.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix Anjou-Loire Challenge at Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) (May 2010, £44,602). Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.3%−1.9

n=86 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −66.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%+8.3

n=8 · A/E 1.77 · £1 +1.00

Debutants · first career start

2.9%−1.3

n=70 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −61.34

First-time headgear · true-first definition

3.3%−0.9

n=30 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −4.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.6%+1.4

n=18 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +3.00

When favourite

n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

2.6%−1.6

n=153 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −93.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

14.3%+10.1

n=7 · A/E 2.63 · £1 +4.20

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 31-60-day break 10% vs 4.2% · n=30

Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 4.2% · n=50

On Good to Soft going 0% vs 4.2% · n=31

Over 2m5f – 3m 1.1% vs 4.2% · n=92

With John Cullen 7.7% vs 4.2% · n=39

Beyond 3m 7.1% vs 4.2% · n=56

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Chase 161 7 4.3% −77.47

NH Flat 60 3 5% −44.34

Hurdle 55 1 1.8% −29.00

Flat 7 1 14.3% +16.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 98 6 6.1% −35.47

Good 65 1 1.5% −42.00

Heavy 59 3 5.1% −7.67

Good to Soft 31 0 0% −31.00

Good to Firm 21 0 0% −21.00

Firm 9 2 22.2% +2.33

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 68 4 5.9% −29.34

Cork 21 2 9.5% +19.00

Wexford 18 1 5.6% −8.00

Fairyhouse 15 0 0% −15.00

Downpatrick 14 0 0% −14.00

Limerick 13 0 0% −13.00

Wexford 11 0 0% −11.00

Kilbeggan 11 1 9.1% −4.00

Cheltenham 10 0 0% −10.00

Down Royal 10 0 0% −10.00

Thurles 10 0 0% −10.00

Clonmel 9 0 0% −9.00

Gowran Park 9 0 0% −9.00

Tramore 9 0 0% −9.00

Tipperary 7 1 14.3% −2.67

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 2 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 1 7 1 14.3% +4.20

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 9 1 11.1% 0.55 −4.67

2nd–3rd fav 27 3 11.1% 1.02 −11.34

4th–6th fav 77 4 5.2% 0.85 −35.80

7th+ in betting 170 4 2.4% 0.88 −83.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

77.8% completed · 216 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 161 73.9% 5 7 27 1 2

Hurdle 55 89.1% 1 1 4 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Another Jewel (IRE)from Jonjo O'Neill 23 3 7 25 Apr 13

Theroadtocroker (IRE) 21 0 2 28 Apr 16

Three By Two (IRE)from Alan McIntyre 20 2 6 9 Oct 26

Carlas Dream (IRE) 20 1 2 16 Mar 11

Ballinasilla (IRE)then Barry J Fitzgerald 12 0 1 21 Oct 21

Commanchewardance (IRE)then Miss Bernadette A K Murphy 12 1 4 19 Nov 13

Manogue Supreme (IRE)then Neil Mulholland 8 0 0 19 Nov 13

Mrs Kinsella (IRE)then Billy Aprahamian 7 0 0 31 Mar 22

The Speedy Man (IRE)then Paul Davies 7 0 0 19 Nov 11

Not To Pushed (IRE) 7 0 2 18 Nov 11

Lough Derg Spirit (IRE)from Paul Nicholls 6 0 3 30 Apr 26

Mia's Milan (IRE) 6 0 1 27 Apr 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 83 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

19 have since run for another yard; 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

2006658400000

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJohn Cullen

14% of all rides
7.7% SR · A/E 1.69

RiderRWSR£1

John Cullen 39 3 7.7% −2.47

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£341k

Prize money

2005

Best season · 4 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Another Jewel (IRE) — Prix Anjou-Loire Challenge (Chase) (Cross-Country) () (6yo+) (Turf) Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) · May 2010 · Listed

£44,602

Lord Of The Artic (IRE) — Supermacs Summer Handicap Hurdle Limerick · Jul 2005

£18,879

Another Jewel (IRE) — Avon Ri Corporate & Leisure Resort Chase For The La Touche Cup Punchestown · May 2011

£16,250

Notable horses

Another Jewel (IRE) Three By Two (IRE) Lord Of The Artic (IRE) Carlas Dream (IRE) Commanchewardance (IRE) An Culainn Beag (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Supreme Leader (GB) 8.3% · 2–24

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,984 runs since 2008 (349 horses).

Saddlers Hall (IRE) 13% · 3–23

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).

Witness Box (USA) 0% · 0–21

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,675 runs since 2008 (194 horses). Weakest on Good to Firm going: 4% from 173.

Yeats (IRE) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,844 runs since 2013 (707 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 204. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.2% from 820.

Oscar (IRE) 0% · 0–19

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 413 · newest first

The latest 50 of 413 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 9 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Three By Two (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Northern Ireland On Course Bookmakers Association Handicap Steeplechase23.5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 28/1

05 Jun 26 Clonmel Secret Order (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Talbot Hotel Clonmel (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 13th 125/1

30 May 26 Tramore Secret Order (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche Dunmore East Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 12th 200/1

07 May 26 Wexford Kiwi De Cotte (FR)J: Mr J W Hendrick Buy Tickets Online Novice Hunters Chase23f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran PU 10/3F

30 Apr 26 Punchestown Lough Derg Spirit (IRE)J: Mr J J Berry Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase33f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 4th 25/1

28 Apr 26 Punchestown Empire Soldier (IRE)J: Mr S Cotter Kildare Hunt Club Cross Country Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup24.5f · Yielding · 9 ran PU 33/1

19 Mar 26 Cork Secret Order (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Mouse Trap Bar & Bridge House Bar Pre Race Party Maiden Hurdle20f · Yielding · 21 ran UR 250/1

07 Mar 26 Gowran Park Lough Derg Spirit (IRE)J: Mr J W Hendrick INHSC Supporting Point-To-Points Tetratema Cup Hunters Chase25f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 40/1

03 Mar 26 Leopardstown Secret Order (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Golf, Padel, Range At Leopardstown Launching Spring 2026 Maiden Hurdle21f · Soft · 10 ran 9th 200/1

04 Feb 26 Punchestown Empire Soldier (IRE)J: Eoin Staples ThatPrizeGuy.co.uk P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase25f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran PU 66/1

04 Feb 26 Punchestown Three By Two (IRE)J: Mr S Cotter ThatPrizeGuy.co.uk P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase25f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 6th 25/1

20 Dec 25 Thurles Three By Two (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford Molony Cup Handicap Chase25.5f · Yielding · 16 ran 7th 9/1

23 Nov 25 Punchestown Lough Derg Spirit (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Colm Quinn BMW Risk Of Thunder Chase24.5f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran UR 100/1

23 Nov 25 Punchestown Three By Two (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford Colm Quinn BMW Risk Of Thunder Chase24.5f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 4th 20/1

29 Aug 25 Wexford Three By Two (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Racing Again October 26th & 27th Handicap Chase (0-100)25f · Good · 16 ran 10th 12/1

22 Aug 25 Kilbeggan Messi Magic (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Peadar's Bar Moate Maiden Hurdle25f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 6th 33/1

29 May 25 Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) Three By Two (IRE)J: J J Slevin France Sire Prix Anjou-Loire Challenge (Listed Cross Country Chase) (5yo+) (Turf)36.5f · Very Soft · 14 ran PU 11/1

01 May 25 Punchestown Empire Soldier (IRE)J: Mr J L Scallan Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase33f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran PU 33/1

01 May 25 Punchestown Three By Two (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Mongey Communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase33f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 3rd 11/1

29 Apr 25 Punchestown Iriko D'airy (FR)J: Mr S Cotter Kildare Hunt Club Cross Country Chase For The Ladies Perpetual Cup24.5f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 28/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Denis Paul Murphy's strike rate?: Denis Paul Murphy has won 12 of 283 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.2% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Denis Paul Murphy do best at?: Punchestown by strike rate: 4 wins from 68 runners (5.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Denis Paul Murphy's Fair A/E?: 0.85, from 281 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.