What is Donal Kinsella's strike rate?

Donal Kinsella has won 38 of 887 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Donal Kinsella do best at?

Bellewstown by strike rate: 4 wins from 48 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Donal Kinsella?

Robbie Colgan, with 85 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.2%).

What is Donal Kinsella's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 887 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Donal Kinsella

887 runners in the lifetime window · 64 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 14 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

38–887

Wins / Runs

4.3%

Strike rate

n=887

117 (13%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=887 · 0.71 incl. margin

−334.50

£1 level stake

n=887 at SP · −37.7%

£679k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). With a claiming rider up the record reads 6% (285 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 887 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Aug–Sep Robbie Colgan: 1.2% from 85 Claiming riders: 6.3%

The read

The record is strongest at Bellewstown (8.3%, n=48), clear of the yard's 4.3% baseline. It is weakest at Galway (0% over 36 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=50, Fair A/E 0.00). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 6.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.38 and +37.25 to a £1 stake over 285 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 2.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −42.00 to a £1 stake over 166 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Robbie Colgan rides 10% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (1.2% vs 4.3%, A/E 0.59). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (8.9%, n=79). The stable star of the record: Ducky Mallon (IRE) — 9 wins from 80 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Aug–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.4%−1.9

n=166 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −42.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.3%+4.0

n=12 · A/E 3.65 · £1 +1.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−4.3

n=50 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −50.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−4.3

n=40 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −40.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

2%−2.3

n=49 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −34.00

When favourite

17.4%

n=23 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −5.50

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6.3%+2.0

n=285 · A/E 1.38 · £1 +37.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−4.3

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 13.2% vs 4.3% · n=38

Off a 0-7-day break 8.9% vs 4.3% · n=79

With debutants 0% vs 4.3% · n=50

With first-time headgear 0% vs 4.3% · n=40

At Bellewstown 8.3% vs 4.3% · n=48

At Galway 0% vs 4.3% · n=36

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 718 34 4.7% −204.00

Hurdle 160 4 2.5% −121.50

NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Chase 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 260 17 6.5% −46.25

Soft 197 7 3.6% −73.00

Standard (AW) 184 4 2.2% −70.50

Good to Firm 93 5 5.4% −47.75

Heavy 82 1 1.2% −73.50

Good to Soft 68 4 5.9% −20.50

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 170 4 2.4% −56.50

Curragh 107 7 6.5% +51.00

Leopardstown 89 5 5.6% −32.00

Navan 83 3 3.6% −53.00

Fairyhouse 58 4 6.9% −0.50

Bellewstown 48 4 8.3% −10.00

Down Royal 46 1 2.2% −41.50

Gowran Park 44 3 6.8% −24.50

Galway 36 0 0% −36.00

Naas 29 1 3.4% −3.00

Roscommon 18 0 0% −18.00

Sligo 17 1 5.9% +2.00

Kilbeggan 16 0 0% −16.00

Downpatrick 15 1 6.7% −7.50

Punchestown 15 1 6.7% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 10 0 0% −10.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 29 6 20.7% 1.19 −2.00

2nd–3rd fav 75 11 14.7% 1.24 −1.50

4th–6th fav 168 6 3.6% 0.52 −106.00

7th+ in betting 615 15 2.4% 0.96 −225.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 239 13 5.4% −98.50

1m – 1m1f 204 8 3.9% −133.50

1m2f – 1m4f 195 12 6.2% +95.00

1m5f – 2m 148 2 1.4% −136.00

2m1f – 2m4f 49 2 4.1% −22.50

Under 6f 43 1 2.3% −30.00

2m5f – 3m 9 0 0% −9.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 15 1 6.7% −7.00

2009 18 0 0% −18.00

2010 31 5 16.1% +31.50

2011 32 1 3.1% −24.50

2012 90 4 4.4% −57.00

2013 92 5 5.4% −62.25

2014 57 0 0% −57.00

2015 52 5 9.6% −11.25

2016 47 3 6.4% −10.50

2017 65 3 4.6% −21.50

2018 55 2 3.6% −36.00

2019 46 2 4.3% −12.00

2020 23 0 0% −23.00

2021 40 1 2.5% +27.00

2022 46 2 4.3% −24.00

2023 43 1 2.3% −17.00

2024 52 1 1.9% −33.00

2025 51 1 2% +30.00

2026 32 1 3.1% −9.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 602 35 5.8% −74.50

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 314 12 3.8% −186.50

11-13 runners 218 9 4.1% −32.75

17+ runners 211 10 4.7% −14.50

8-10 runners 110 5 4.5% −76.75

5-7 runners 32 2 6.3% −22.00

2-4 runners 2 0 0% −2.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Ducky Mallon (IRE) 80 9 23 8 Oct 22

Maudlin Magdalen (IRE) 55 7 19 17 Nov 17

King Of Oriel (IRE) 46 3 9 22 Nov 15

Academic Accolade (GB) 46 1 7 3 Sep 13

Salacious Sally (IRE) 40 1 3 4 May 15

Lonesome Maverick (IRE)from Lester Winters 38 2 7 3 Jul 13

Wayne R Walker (GB) 37 0 3 24 Aug 25

The Gnathologist (IRE)from Lester Winters · then P Delaney 29 1 5 22 May 13

Annagassan (GB)then S M Duffy 26 0 1 2 Feb 18

Arbitrageur (IRE) 26 2 5 5 Apr 15

High Honour (GB)from Charlie Appleby 25 1 3 23 Oct 26

Zabeir (IRE)from Andrew Balding 25 1 6 12 Dec 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 64 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Lester Winters (4) and Andrew Balding (2); 47 had their first archived run for this yard.

4 have since run for another yard; 56 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

0005343109210

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRobbie Colgan

10% of all rides
1.2% SR · A/E 0.59

RiderRWSR£1

Robbie Colgan 85 1 1.2% −64.00

Rory Cleary 81 2 2.5% −59.00

Seamie Heffernan 46 2 4.3% −19.00

N G McCullagh 44 3 6.8% −0.50

Chris Hayes 42 1 2.4% −27.00

Sean Davis 37 2 5.4% −5.00

Andrew P Thornton 33 1 3% −27.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£717k

Prize money

2015

Best season · 5 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Maudlin Magdalen (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund 'Northfields' Handicap Curragh · Sep 2016

£88,500

Vivacious Vivienne (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Autumn Fillies Handicap Leopardstown · Sep 2010

£58,500

Vivacious Vivienne (IRE) — United Arab Emirates Handicap Curragh · May 2010

£42,250

Notable horses

Ducky Mallon (IRE) Maudlin Magdalen (IRE) King Of Oriel (IRE) Lonesome Maverick (IRE) Vivacious Vivienne (IRE) Arbitrageur (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Jeremy (USA) 11.3% · 9–80

Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,725 runs since 2011 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.

Dylan Thomas (IRE) 12.7% · 7–55

Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,496 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.

Acclamation (GB) 2.2% · 1–46

Progeny have won 10% of 19,719 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Kheleyf (USA) 6.5% · 3–46

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,552 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Excellent Art (GB) 2.5% · 1–40

Progeny have won 9.9% of 4,555 runs since 2011 (298 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 451.

Celtic Swing (GB) 5.3% · 2–38

Progeny have won 9.3% of 2,248 runs since 2008 (160 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 915 · newest first

The latest 50 of 915 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Micasso (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan See You At The GR1 Double Header 21 & 22 November Handicap (0-60) (Div 1)7f · Yielding · 12 ran 2nd 15/2

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) High Honour (GB)J: P J O'Hanlon Callan Tansey Handicap Hurdle (Div II)17.5f · Yielding · 13 ran PU 17/2

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Micasso (IRE)J: Ben Coen Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse 5th & 13th December Handicap6f · Yielding · 21 ran 6th 9/1

15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Tullyesker (IRE)J: Jessica O'Gorman DNG Excellence Handicap9f · Yielding To Soft · 19 ran 19th 66/1

07 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Tullyesker (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Racing Again 21st October Handicap (Div I)10f · Yielding · 16 ran 9th 50/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Micasso (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Killarney Student Raceday Handicap8f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 8/1

04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) High Honour (GB)J: Miss M Walsh Holden Plant Rentals Lady Riders Classic (Q.R.) Handicap12f · Yielding · 12 ran 10th 33/1

15 Sep 26 Punchestown (IRE) Mullacurry Maid (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (Div II)9f · Good · 13 ran 10th 100/1

15 Sep 26 Punchestown (IRE) Tullyesker (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Festival 2027 On Sale Soon Handicap (Div I)9f · Good · 14 ran 8th 33/1

09 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Micasso (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Follow Us On X Handicap7f · Good · 22 ran 10th 6/1F

02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Micasso (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Navan Handicap (Div II)8f · Good · 16 ran 4th 15/2

27 Aug 26 Navan (IRE) Stabannon (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan GAIN The Advantage Series Handicap14f · Good · 18 ran 14th 100/1

25 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Tullyesker (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Ploughman Bar & Grill Handicap (Div I)8f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 12th 33/1

19 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) High Honour (GB)J: P J O'Hanlon Aidan Moffitt Memorial Handicap Hurdle17.5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 14/1

15 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Mullacurry Maid (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Strand Inn Dunmore East Handicap12f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 9th 66/1

06 Aug 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Micasso (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Carnival de Leop Handicap7f · Good · 17 ran 11th 33/1

20 Jul 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Stabannon (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Maiden9.5f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran 6th 125/1

12 Jul 26 Dundalk (AW) Micasso (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan QuinnBet Handicap (0-60)8f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 16/1

09 Jul 26 Leopardstown Mullacurry Maid (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Mervue Equine Handicap (0-60)9f · Good · 22 ran 17th 50/1

02 Jul 26 Bellewstown Micasso (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Ploughman Bar And Grill Handicap (0-60)8f · Good · 15 ran 1st 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 23 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · to 23 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Donal Kinsella's strike rate?: Donal Kinsella has won 38 of 887 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Donal Kinsella do best at?: Bellewstown by strike rate: 4 wins from 48 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Donal Kinsella?: Robbie Colgan, with 85 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.2%).
What is Donal Kinsella's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 887 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.