What is I R Ferguson's strike rate?

I R Ferguson has won 27 of 328 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does I R Ferguson do best at?

Perth by strike rate: 6 wins from 39 runners (15.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is I R Ferguson's Fair A/E?

0.78, from 327 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

I R Ferguson

328 runners in the lifetime window · 70 individual horses

As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner May 2021 98% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

27–328

Wins / Runs

8.2%

Strike rate

n=328

82 (25%)

Placed

0.78

Fair A/E

n=327 · 0.65 incl. margin

−153.42

£1 level stake

n=328 at SP · −46.8%

£307k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

50%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.78). Debutants are a strength: 13% on first career starts (53 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 328 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 8.5% 21.9% when favourite Sent off the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (15.4%, n=39), clear of the yard's 8.2% baseline. Debutants strike at 13.2% (n=53, Fair A/E 1.33). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 6.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.71 and −104.00 to a £1 stake over 179 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The yard also read well in Class 4 (14.3%, n=35) and off a 61-180-day break (12.8%, n=39). The record read poorly off a 8-14-day break — 2.6% over 39 runners, 5.6pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase at Cheltenham (Mar 2021, £52,753).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.5%+0.3

n=82 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −53.95

New recruits · first run for the yard

40%+31.8

n=10 · A/E 2.84 · £1 +9.17

Debutants · first career start

13.2%+5.0

n=53 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −8.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.5%+1.3

n=21 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −16.45

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−8.2

n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00

When favourite

21.9%

n=32 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −11.80

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6.7%−1.5

n=179 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −104.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

33.3%+25.1

n=3 · A/E 3.35 · £1 +1.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Perth 15.4% vs 8.2% · n=39

In Class 4 14.3% vs 8.2% · n=35

Off a 8-14-day break 2.6% vs 8.2% · n=39

With debutants 13.2% vs 8.2% · n=53

On Good to Soft going 2.9% vs 8.2% · n=35

Off a 61-180-day break 12.8% vs 8.2% · n=39

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Chase 147 13 8.8% −45.55

Hurdle 129 8 6.2% −87.87

NH Flat 46 5 10.9% −25.00

Flat 6 1 16.7% +5.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 96 11 11.5% −5.60

Soft 93 6 6.5% −69.95

Heavy 61 3 4.9% −38.75

Good to Firm 41 5 12.2% −12.62

Good to Soft 35 1 2.9% −30.50

Firm 2 1 50% +4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Down Royal 101 5 5% −69.25

Downpatrick 62 5 8.1% −36.10

Perth 39 6 15.4% +1.13

Fairyhouse 23 1 4.3% −19.25

Musselburgh 19 2 10.5% −12.83

Ayr 12 3 25% +1.50

Navan 12 0 0% −12.00

Punchestown 10 0 0% −10.00

Stratford 6 0 0% −6.00

Naas 5 0 0% −5.00

Sedgefield 4 1 25% +0.50

Kelso 4 0 0% −4.00

Leopardstown 3 0 0% −3.00

Clonmel 3 2 66.7% +7.38

Tramore 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 35 5 14.3% −7.87

Class 3 16 0 0% −16.00

Class 5 14 3 21.4% +8.00

Class 6 13 3 23.1% −3.83

Class 2 12 2 16.7% +28.00

Class 1 3 1 33.3% +1.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 35 8 22.9% 0.76 −10.30

2nd–3rd fav 71 12 16.9% 1.10 −12.62

4th–6th fav 115 5 4.3% 0.49 −68.50

7th+ in betting 107 2 1.9% 0.57 −62.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.2% completed · 276 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 147 80.3% 12 5 11 0 1

Hurdle 129 93% 1 0 4 2 2

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Posh Bird (IRE)then Peter Niven 26 1 10 28 Apr 11

Kilbrannish Hill (IRE) 20 1 3 25 Feb 12

Bally Wall (IRE)then N R W Wright 19 1 8 25 Mar 12

Areema (IRE) 15 0 4 23 Jun 17

James (IRE) 15 1 6 7 Jun 17

Leighinmohr (IRE) 11 3 4 29 May 15

Benbradagh (IRE)then Mervyn Torrens 11 1 2 2 Feb 11

Giuliani (GB) 11 0 1 2 Jul 09

Steel's Cotton (GB)then Jane Clark 10 0 1 12 May 17

Ramore Will (IRE)then Chris Gordon 9 0 1 26 Apr 17

Scolboa Music Man (IRE) 9 1 1 3 Feb 10

Simonsberg (IRE) 8 2 2 16 Feb 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 70 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from E Bolger (2) and K F O'Brien (2); 52 had their first archived run for this yard.

25 have since run for another yard, most often for Andrew Hamilton (2) and Gordon Elliott (2); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

013916848000010

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderA E Lynch

15% of all rides
4.2% SR · A/E 0.45

RiderRWSR£1

A E Lynch 48 2 4.2% −39.12

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£409k

Prize money

2009

Best season · 7 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Galvin (IRE) — Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Mar 2021 · Grade 2

£52,753

Simonsig (GB) — Irish Racing Post Champion Point-to-point Flat Race Fairyhouse · Apr 2011

£29,750

Zemsky (IRE) — Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup Cheltenham · Mar 2011 · Class 2

£21,007

Notable horses

Leighinmohr (IRE) Huncheon Paddy (IRE) Brickies Mate (GB) Simonsberg (IRE) Joe Blake (IRE) Zemsky (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Winged Love (IRE) 4.4% · 2–45

Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,965 runs since 2008 (296 horses).

Jimble (FR) 5% · 1–20

Progeny have won 8.6% of 625 runs since 2008 (43 horses).

Oscar (IRE) 5% · 1–20

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,542 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Moscow Society (USA) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,521 runs since 2008 (255 horses).

Tikkanen (USA) 0% · 0–19

Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,014 runs since 2008 (170 horses).

Karinga Bay (GB) 0% · 0–16

Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,407 runs since 2008 (315 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 417 · newest first

The latest 50 of 417 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 January 2005 to 3 May 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 May 21 Down Royal Gris Majeur (FR)J: Mr N McParlan Play Lotto On The Boylesports App (Pro/Am) Flat Race16.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 8th 6/1

16 Mar 21 Cheltenham Galvin (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 30f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 1st 7/2

23 Jun 17 Down Royal Areema (IRE)J: A E Lynch Sean Graham Bookmakers Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20f · Good · 20 ran 17th 20/1

07 Jun 17 Wexford James (IRE)J: A E Lynch Rosslare Handicap Chase (0-109)25.5f · Soft · 11 ran PU 8/1

17 May 17 Punchestown Areema (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle punchestown.com Handicap Hurdle (80-102)24f · Good · 24 ran 6th 20/1

17 May 17 Punchestown James (IRE)J: A E Lynch Irish Stallion Farms EBF Handicap Chase (0-116)24.5f · Good · 16 ran UR 11/1

12 May 17 Kilbeggan Steel's Cotton (GB)J: Sean Flanagan Sean Hughes Memorial Mullingar Park Hotel Beginners Chase20f · Yielding · 12 ran 11th 25/1

01 May 17 Down Royal Steel's Cotton (GB)J: Danny Mullins Magners Irish Cider Beginners Chase20f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 4th 16/1

28 Apr 17 Perth Tambow (IRE)J: Daragh Bourke Heineken UK 'Closing Time' Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 7th 50/1

27 Apr 17 Perth Areema (IRE)J: Lorcan Murtagh Mackie's Real Deal Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 5th 12/1

26 Apr 17 Perth Ramore Will (IRE)J: A P Heskin Joseph Perrier 'Party Has Started' Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 9/1

22 Apr 17 Ayr Manetti (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Skyform Group Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 11th 16/1

26 Mar 17 Downpatrick Tambow (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle Visit St. Patrick's Country (Pro/Am) Flat Race17.5f · Good · 7 ran 4th 20/1

26 Mar 17 Downpatrick James (IRE)J: A E Lynch Racing Post Handicap Chase (0-102)19f · Good · 6 ran 4th 4/1

17 Mar 17 Down Royal Areema (IRE)J: Robbie Colgan Daily Mirror Handicap Hurdle (80-109)22f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 9th 10/1

04 Mar 17 Navan James (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Meridian Security Handicap Chase17f · Heavy · 9 ran 4th 13/2

01 Mar 17 Musselburgh Steel's Cotton (GB)J: Danny Mullins Collect Totepool Winnings At Betfred Shops Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 12/1

01 Mar 17 Musselburgh Areema (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Totequadpot At Betfred.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 6/1

01 Mar 17 Musselburgh Ramore Will (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Toteexacta At Betfred.com Maiden HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 8/1

01 Mar 17 Musselburgh Bridge End (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Toteplacepot At Betfred.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is I R Ferguson's strike rate?: I R Ferguson has won 27 of 328 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does I R Ferguson do best at?: Perth by strike rate: 6 wins from 39 runners (15.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is I R Ferguson's Fair A/E?: 0.78, from 327 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.