What is Joseph G Murphy's strike rate?

Joseph G Murphy has won 200 of 2,553 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Joseph G Murphy do best at?

Listowel by strike rate: 18 wins from 104 runners (17.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Joseph G Murphy?

G. F. Carroll, with 1,203 runners since 2008 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 116 (9.6%).

Is Joseph G Murphy in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Joseph G Murphy's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 2,549 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Joseph G Murphy

2,553 runners in the lifetime window · 278 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago 93% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

200–2,553

Wins / Runs

7.8%

Strike rate

n=2,553

636 (25%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=2,549 · 0.80 incl. margin

−807.23

£1 level stake

n=2,553 at SP · −31.6%

£5.33m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 130 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 12% (73 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,553 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jul 30.1% when favourite G. F. Carroll: 9.6% from 1,203 Headgear returns: 12.3% Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Listowel (17.3%, n=104) and Ballinrobe (16.1%, n=56) — all clear of the yard's 7.8% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 12.3% (n=73, Fair A/E 1.77), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.6% (n=431, Fair A/E 0.40). G. F. Carroll rides 47% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (14%, n=222). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 2.2% over 224 runners, 5.6pts below the baseline. 21 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coronation Stakes at Ascot (Jun 2025, £411,573). The stable star of the record: Lord Massusus (IRE) — 8 wins from 43 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.6%−5.2

n=431 · A/E 0.40 · £1 −306.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.3%−4.5

n=30 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −23.50

Debutants · first career start

2.9%−4.9

n=239 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −64.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

6.8%−1.0

n=117 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −41.87

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

12.3%+4.5

n=73 · A/E 1.77 · £1 +18.00

When favourite

30.1%

n=136 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −1.93

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

6%−1.8

n=333 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −139.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.8%+0.0

n=255 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −31.75

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Listowel 17.3% vs 7.8% · n=104

On last-time-out winners 14.4% vs 7.8% · n=195

With Pat Smullen 15.4% vs 7.8% · n=91

Off a 0-7-day break 14% vs 7.8% · n=222

At Ballinrobe 16.1% vs 7.8% · n=56

Off a 61-180-day break 2.2% vs 7.8% · n=224

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 2,363 188 8% −701.64

Hurdle 156 10 6.4% −99.59

NH Flat 23 1 4.3% −2.00

Chase 11 1 9.1% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 810 71 8.8% −220.97

Good 666 59 8.9% −137.40

Heavy 339 28 8.3% −94.12

Standard (AW) 286 13 4.5% −136.25

Good to Soft 244 17 7% −116.49

Good to Firm 198 12 6.1% −92.00

Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Curragh 380 22 5.8% −153.75

Dundalk 280 12 4.3% −135.25

Gowran Park 260 24 9.2% −107.71

Leopardstown 210 13 6.2% −97.75

Cork 176 10 5.7% −75.77

Naas 173 15 8.7% +14.16

Killarney 140 18 12.9% −37.75

Galway 128 17 13.3% +35.21

Tipperary 104 10 9.6% −2.40

Listowel 104 18 17.3% +43.91

Limerick 93 3 3.2% −77.17

Fairyhouse 86 10 11.6% −22.00

Roscommon 77 2 2.6% −70.12

Navan 75 3 4% −26.00

Ballinrobe 56 9 16.1% −10.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 255 20 7.8% −31.75

Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 190 50 26.3% 1.16 −11.69

2nd–3rd fav 429 70 16.3% 1.16 −51.54

4th–6th fav 754 56 7.4% 1.02 −158.00

7th+ in betting 1,180 24 2% 0.61 −586.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 886 67 7.6% −352.10

1m – 1m1f 756 70 9.3% −108.58

1m2f – 1m4f 481 34 7.1% −159.84

1m5f – 2m 211 14 6.6% −114.46

Under 6f 121 9 7.4% −27.50

2m1f – 2m4f 85 6 7.1% −31.75

2m5f – 3m 13 0 0% −13.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 98 3 3.1% −73.00

2009 95 12 12.6% −9.50

2010 94 8 8.5% −37.25

2011 92 7 7.6% +0.50

2012 128 10 7.8% −41.00

2013 113 7 6.2% −36.00

2014 86 6 7% −34.38

2015 86 4 4.7% −70.10

2016 162 15 9.3% −26.87

2017 169 13 7.7% −86.25

2018 129 9 7% −14.00

2019 200 15 7.5% −73.87

2020 200 8 4% −111.07

2021 204 19 9.3% −42.84

2022 182 16 8.8% −81.21

2023 134 15 11.2% −18.38

2024 117 10 8.5% +8.41

2025 154 19 12.3% +7.08

2026 110 4 3.6% −67.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,311 103 7.9% −451.87

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 844 48 5.7% −357.68

11-13 runners 602 48 8% −236.50

8-10 runners 457 51 11.2% −83.87

17+ runners 451 19 4.2% −198.50

5-7 runners 184 32 17.4% +48.41

2-4 runners 15 2 13.3% +20.91

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fit For Function (GB) 97 7 24 30 Sep 22

Insignia Of Rank (IRE)then Edouard Monfort 52 5 15 31 Oct 21

Lord Massusus (IRE) 43 8 15 13 Sep 26

Gustavus Weston (IRE) 43 4 8 23 Oct 24

Ask Jack (USA) 41 6 14 19 Oct 12

Zemario (IRE)from Michael Jarvis 38 0 10 31 Mar 17

Swamp Fox (IRE) 37 7 20 28 May 19

Bay Of Skaill (GB) 36 1 16 2 Dec 20

Silverkode (IRE) 33 3 10 24 Nov 21

Northgate (IRE) 32 4 14 18 Apr 12

Shepherd's Purse (GB)then David Loughnane 30 2 7 5 Sep 17

Maggie The Cat (GB) 29 1 5 9 Jul 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 278 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 14 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 56 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard; 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 8

Only 8 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

50659101089730

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderG. F. Carroll

47% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.16

RiderRWSR£1

G. F. Carroll 1,203 116 9.6% −138.43

Chris Hayes 123 7 5.7% −61.00

Wayne Lordan 105 7 6.7% −26.50

Shane Foley 103 7 6.8% −57.67

Pat Smullen 91 14 15.4% −11.22

W J Lee 69 5 7.2% −43.25

Tom Kiely-Marshall 68 3 4.4% −48.00

Gary Halpin 53 3 5.7% −27.50

Connor King 44 5 11.4% −3.34

Declan McDonogh 44 1 2.3% −38.50

Seamie Heffernan 32 0 0% −32.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

207

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£5.64m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 19 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Cercene (IRE) — Coronation Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Rnd) Ascot · Jun 2025 · Group 1

£411,573

Immutable (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Petingo Handicap Leopardstown (IRE) · Sep 2026

£90,000

Celtic Crown (IRE) — William Hill Emerald Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh · May 2022

£88,500

Notable horses

Lord Massusus (IRE) Fit For Function (GB) Swamp Fox (IRE) Ask Jack (USA) Galtee Mist (IRE) Insignia Of Rank (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Captain Gerrard (IRE) 7.2% · 7–97

Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,054 runs since 2013 (175 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 6.8% · 6–88

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,595 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Bated Breath (GB) 7.7% · 6–78

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,169 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.

Zoffany (IRE) 4.8% · 3–62

Progeny have won 9.9% of 10,778 runs since 2015 (799 horses).

Windsor Knot (IRE) 16.7% · 10–60

Progeny have won 8.5% of 1,319 runs since 2011 (81 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 109. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 127.

Born To Sea (IRE) 3.4% · 2–58

Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,289 runs since 2016 (311 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 970. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 867. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 725.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,686 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,686 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 27 March 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Amplitude (IRE)J: Nathan Crosse Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 11th 40/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Lady Lilac (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett Keadeen Hotel Premier Handicap8f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 2nd 12/1

01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Bright Dream (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 21st 100/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Miss Cornelia (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Premiere Weekend Race & Dine Packages From €75pp Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 6 ran 4th 100/30

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Amplitude (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Punchestown Premiere Weekend Sat 21 & Sun 22 November Handicap8f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 6/1

29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Unreal Friend (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Yielding · 8 ran 5th 33/1

28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Coloursofthewind (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 33/1

21 Oct 26 Navan (IRE) Senuna (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Yielding · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Marjorie Daw (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll 1xBet.ie Supports The Curragh Handicap10f · Yielding · 24 ran 12th 40/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Cross Of Stars (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Staffordstown Stud Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 28/1

20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Castagliola (GB)J: G. F. Carroll 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 12th 12/1

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Amplitude (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 7th 10/1

17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Unreal Friend (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (Smullen Series)8.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 40/1

11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Senuna (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden6f · Soft · 13 ran 5th 12/1

10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Ted's Turn (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 18 ran 2nd 6/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Marjorie Daw (IRE)J: Adam Browne-Souza Killarney Grand Apprentice Handicap11f · Soft · 12 ran 10th 10/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Alphecca (IRE)J: G. F. Carroll Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 11f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 14/1

05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Magma Law (GB)J: G. F. Carroll Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden8f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 9th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 10 Oct 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 19 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Joseph G Murphy's strike rate?: Joseph G Murphy has won 200 of 2,553 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.8% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Joseph G Murphy do best at?: Listowel by strike rate: 18 wins from 104 runners (17.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Joseph G Murphy?: G. F. Carroll, with 1,203 runners since 2008 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 116 (9.6%).
Is Joseph G Murphy in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Joseph G Murphy's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 2,549 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.