What is Luke Dace's strike rate?

Luke Dace has won 97 of 1,378 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Luke Dace do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 5 wins from 41 runners (12.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Luke Dace?

Jack Dace, with 109 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (9.2%).

Is Luke Dace in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Luke Dace's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 1,372 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Luke Dace

1,378 runners in the lifetime window · 149 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

97–1,378

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=1,378

305 (22%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=1,372 · 0.83 incl. margin

−434.83

£1 level stake

n=1,378 at SP · −31.6%

£750k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 70 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,378 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Sep 34.7% when favourite Jack Dace: 9.2% from 109 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=57, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.64 and −142.50 to a £1 stake over 230 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Jack Dace rides 8% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9.2% vs 7%, A/E 1.36) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (11.1%, n=244). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 1.1% over 90 runners, 5.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.32 across 75 runners (1.3% strike, −70.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Hip Hip Hooray (GB) — 8 wins from 75 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.5%−3.5

n=230 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −142.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.8%−2.2

n=84 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −49.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−7.0

n=57 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −57.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

1.6%−5.4

n=62 · A/E 0.35 · £1 −58.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7%+0.0

n=57 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −21.75

When favourite

34.7%

n=49 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +3.17

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.7%−1.3

n=436 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −137.87

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−7.0

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Richard Hughes 20% vs 7% · n=35

With debutants 0% vs 7% · n=57

On Good to Soft going 1.1% vs 7% · n=90

With Colin Bolger 0% vs 7% · n=44

Off a break of 180+ days 1.3% vs 7% · n=75

On Good to Firm going 11.1% vs 7% · n=244

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,174 88 7.5% −292.21

Hurdle 152 7 4.6% −102.37

Chase 35 2 5.7% −23.25

NH Flat 17 0 0% −17.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 656 46 7% −184.84

Good 251 16 6.4% −147.24

Good to Firm 244 27 11.1% +27.25

Good to Soft 90 1 1.1% −75.00

Soft 90 6 6.7% −18.00

Heavy 29 0 0% −29.00

Firm 18 1 5.6% −8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 306 19 6.2% −111.50

Kempton (AW) 270 20 7.4% −22.25

Windsor 87 10 11.5% −3.25

Lingfield 76 6 7.9% −22.75

Goodwood 59 2 3.4% −29.00

Sandown 56 6 10.7% +0.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 50 5 10% −26.09

Newbury 48 1 2.1% −33.00

Fontwell 43 1 2.3% −39.00

Brighton 41 5 12.2% −5.50

Salisbury 28 2 7.1% −21.12

Chelmsford (AW) 25 1 4% −22.50

Newmarket 22 0 0% −22.00

Ascot 22 1 4.5% +12.00

Bath 20 2 10% −0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 529 44 8.3% −94.99

Class 6 354 27 7.6% −120.09

Class 4 349 21 6% −131.25

Class 3 82 3 3.7% −41.00

Class 2 35 2 5.7% −18.50

Class 1 14 0 0% −14.00

Class 7 14 0 0% −14.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 61 19 31.1% 1.12 −1.58

2nd–3rd fav 206 26 12.6% 0.80 −67.25

4th–6th fav 426 31 7.3% 0.98 −118.00

7th+ in betting 685 21 3.1% 1.10 −248.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 352 24 6.8% −124.59

1m2f – 1m4f 325 24 7.4% −67.75

1m – 1m1f 267 22 8.2% −34.25

1m5f – 2m 168 14 8.3% −15.62

Under 6f 104 6 5.8% −71.00

2m5f – 3m 74 4 5.4% −42.75

2m1f – 2m4f 62 1 1.6% −59.62

Over 3m 26 2 7.7% −19.25

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 70 1 1.4% −55.00

2009 83 5 6% −49.00

2010 64 5 7.8% +16.00

2011 77 5 6.5% −46.12

2012 103 10 9.7% −3.59

2013 160 15 9.4% −32.25

2014 166 17 10.2% −33.50

2015 106 4 3.8% −78.25

2016 48 5 10.4% −5.75

2017 25 1 4% −8.00

2018 47 4 8.5% −28.12

2019 47 1 2.1% −30.00

2020 36 0 0% −36.00

2021 41 1 2.4% −24.00

2022 40 3 7.5% −11.25

2023 51 4 7.8% −33.00

2024 72 4 5.6% −26.00

2025 60 6 10% +16.50

2026 82 6 7.3% +32.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,052 83 7.9% −190.96

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 522 39 7.5% −130.37

11-13 runners 397 21 5.3% −141.59

5-7 runners 275 32 11.6% −41.87

14-16 runners 133 2 1.5% −117.50

17+ runners 29 2 6.9% +16.00

2-4 runners 22 1 4.5% −19.50

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hip Hip Hooray (GB)from Ed McMahon 75 8 25 15 Jul 13

Ravenous (GB)from Jamie Snowden 67 4 15 8 Jul 20

Youthful King (GB) 47 7 14 28 Oct 26

Spiritual Art (GB)from Simon Callaghan 44 5 11 3 Sep 13

The Defiant (GB)from Daniel Steele 40 2 12 25 Feb 26

Alnoomaas (IRE)from Ronald Harris 39 6 16 7 Oct 14

American Spin (GB)from Brian Meehan 38 5 12 9 Jun 15

King Cabo (USA) 36 4 12 4 Nov 25

Echo Brava (GB)from John Gallagher · then Jim Best 36 7 15 31 Aug 15

My Lord (GB)from Ronald Harris · then Jim Best 35 4 10 20 Feb 15

The Secrets Out (GB) 25 3 6 17 May 19

Emman Bee (IRE)from John Gallagher 23 3 8 31 Aug 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 149 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 31 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ronald Harris (4) and Ian Williams (2); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.

18 have since run for another yard, most often for Jim Best (5); 42 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

921066109109275

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderJack Dace

8% of all rides
9.2% SR · A/E 1.36

RiderRWSR£1

Jack Dace 109 10 9.2% +44.75

Kieran O'Neill 62 5 8.1% −15.00

Luke Morris 61 5 8.2% −39.25

Ian Mongan 52 6 11.5% +28.50

Colin Bolger 44 0 0% −44.00

Fergus Sweeney 40 5 12.5% +18.50

Richard Hughes 35 7 20% +4.91

Jamie Moore 33 2 6.1% −19.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

101

Archived wins

£774k

Prize money

2014

Best season · 17 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ravenous (GB) — Racing UK In HD Colwick Cup (Handicap) Nottingham · Aug 2016 · Class 3

£22,642

American Spin (GB) — Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle Haydock · May 2012 · Class 2

£15,640

Youthful King (GB) — AWCI The Drylining & Interior Specialist Handicap Windsor · Jul 2023 · Class 2

£15,462

Notable horses

Hip Hip Hooray (GB) Youthful King (GB) Echo Brava (GB) Alnoomaas (IRE) Spiritual Art (GB) American Spin (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 10.7% · 8–75

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,979 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Raven's Pass (USA) 6% · 4–67

Progeny have won 11.2% of 4,939 runs since 2008 (453 horses).

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 11.5% · 7–61

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,844 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.

Swiss Spirit (GB) 0% · 0–56

Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,646 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.5% from 244. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.7% from 136.

Fountain Of Youth (IRE) 13% · 7–54

Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,075 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.3% from 124. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.

Proclamation (IRE) 16.3% · 7–43

Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,895 runs since 2008 (165 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.9% from 227. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5% from 278.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,580 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,580 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 January 2005 to 28 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Youthful King (GB)J: Charles Bishop Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 7th 80/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Uniting (IRE)J: Ryan Kavanagh Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 12th 33/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Lunario (IRE)J: Isobelle Chalmers Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 3rd 66/1

26 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) St Peter's Cross (GB)J: Ryan Kavanagh Unibet More Extra Place Races EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 80/1

14 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Youthful King (GB)J: Jack Dace Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Qualifier) (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 11th 80/1

09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Valentine Boy (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Try Unibet's Superboosts Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 5th 18/1

09 Oct 26 Newmarket Lunario (IRE)J: Jack Dace HKJC World Pool Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 6th 12/1

07 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Now The Eagle (FR)J: Jack Dace Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap Stakes (London Stayers Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 4th 8/1

25 Sep 26 Worcester Break Point (GB)J: Freddie Keighley Pj Nicholls Kgm Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23f · Good · 9 ran 9th 9/1

19 Sep 26 Newmarket Lunario (IRE)J: Jack Dace Turners Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 4th 40/1

14 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Valentine Boy (GB)J: Jack Dace Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap Stakes (London Middle Distance Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 6th 10/1

10 Sep 26 Lingfield (AW) Mister Pretentious (GB)J: Kieran O'Neill Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 20/1

09 Sep 26 Kempton (AW) Backer Bilk (GB)J: Darragh Keenan Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 11th 33/1

28 Aug 26 Fontwell Break Point (GB)J: Freddie Keighley Watch Unbridled On attheraces.com Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 7/1

25 Aug 26 Lingfield (AW) Backer Bilk (GB)J: George Wood Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 10/1

21 Aug 26 Salisbury Panthere Noir (GB)J: Tyler Heard Edwards Ford, Foray Motor Group Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Good · 6 ran 6th 9/1

17 Aug 26 Windsor Mister Pretentious (GB)J: Isobelle Chalmers Matchbook Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 2nd 50/1

12 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Backer Bilk (GB)J: George Wood Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 8th 33/1

10 Aug 26 Kempton (AW) Mehmas Engine (IRE)J: Rhys Clutterbuck Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 10th 100/1

06 Aug 26 Sandown Lunario (IRE)J: Marco Ghiani BetMGM 80s Day Saturday 29 August Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Luke Dace's strike rate?: Luke Dace has won 97 of 1,378 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Luke Dace do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 5 wins from 41 runners (12.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Luke Dace?: Jack Dace, with 109 runners since 2008 — 8% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (9.2%).
Is Luke Dace in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Luke Dace's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 1,372 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.