Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.83).
Deterministic profile computed from 159 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
The read
The yard also reads well in Flat races (8.9%, n=56). The record reads poorly off a 15-30-day break — 0% over 41 runners, 5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.40 across 53 runners (1.9% strike, −36.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Curraheen Princess (IRE) — 5 wins from 23 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.9%+1.9
n=29 · A/E 1.16 · £1 +14.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.0
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.0
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.0
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
33.3%+28.3
n=3 · A/E 5.30 · £1 +23.00
When favourite
12.5%
n=8 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −5.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.3%−1.7
n=60 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −17.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break0% vs 5% · n=41
With a new jockey booking1.3% vs 5% · n=75
In Flat races8.9% vs 5% · n=56
Over 1m5f – 2m1.9% vs 5% · n=53
Over 2m1f – 2m4f2.5% vs 5% · n=40
With claiming riders up3.3% vs 5% · n=60 · A/E 0.66
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle8633.5%−36.50
Flat5658.9%−26.07
NH Flat1700%−17.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6234.8%−40.67
Soft4536.7%−19.40
Heavy2400%−24.00
Good to Soft1516.7%+11.00
Standard (AW)700%−7.00
Good to Firm6116.7%+0.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork2015%−13.50
Wexford1417.1%+3.00
Tipperary1100%−11.00
Curragh1100%−11.00
Navan11327.3%+9.83
Tramore1000%−10.00
Clonmel900%−9.00
Thurles800%−8.00
Dundalk (AW)700%−7.00
Leopardstown700%−7.00
Gowran Park700%−7.00
Fairyhouse600%−6.00
Killarney500%−5.00
Limerick5120%+21.00
Punchestown500%−5.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8112.5%0.53−5.90
2nd–3rd fav19210.5%0.86−8.17
4th–6th fav4748.5%1.23−6.50
7th+ in betting8511.2%0.46−59.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m5311.9%−36.00
2m1f – 2m4f4012.5%−33.50
Under 6f21523.8%+8.93
2m5f – 3m1616.3%+10.00
1m – 1m1f1200%−12.00
6f – 7f1000%−10.00
1m2f – 1m4f700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008500%−5.00
2009400%−4.00
20108112.5%−1.50
20141200%−12.00
2015500%−5.00
2016800%−8.00
2017800%−8.00
2018900%−9.00
2019200%−2.00
202221314.3%−0.17
20232827.1%−18.90
20242015%−3.00
20251900%−19.00
202610110%+16.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps67710.4%−4.57
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners5311.9%−36.00
17+ runners4436.8%−23.17
11-13 runners3900%−39.00
8-10 runners18316.7%+21.50
5-7 runners5120%−2.90
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 36 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 36 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 29 had their first archived run for this yard.
13 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00001265061500
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 9.7% of 1,166 runs since 2023 (200 horses).
Winged Love (IRE)11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 10.9% of 3,965 runs since 2008 (296 horses).
Gold Well (GB)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 12.2% of 5,648 runs since 2011 (363 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 172 · newest first
The latest 50 of 172 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 February 2006 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is N Stokes's strike rate?
N Stokes has won 8 of 159 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is N Stokes's Fair A/E?
0.83, from 159 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
N Stokes·SR 5%·A/E 0.83
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