What is Nick Williams's strike rate?

Nick Williams has won 251 of 1,741 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.4% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nick Williams do best at?

Taunton by strike rate: 19 wins from 81 runners (23.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Nick Williams?

Lizzie Kelly, with 380 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 60 (15.8%).

What is Nick Williams's Fair A/E?

1.07, from 1,736 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Nick Williams

1,741 runners in the lifetime window · 177 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 102 days ago 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

251–1,741

Wins / Runs

14.4%

Strike rate

n=1,741

635 (37%)

Placed

1.07

Fair A/E

n=1,736 · 0.92 incl. margin

−154.72

£1 level stake

n=1,739 at SP · −8.9%

£5.36m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.07). New recruits from other yards win at 28% first time out (32 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,741 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Feb 30.4% when favourite Lizzie Kelly: 15.8% from 380 New recruits: 28.1% Claiming riders: 15.2% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Taunton (23.5%, n=81), clear of the yard's 14.4% baseline. It is weakest at Worcester (4.2% over 48 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 28.1% (n=32, Fair A/E 2.81), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 8.8% (n=57, Fair A/E 1.03). Lizzie Kelly rides 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.8%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 27 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Grand Prix D'Automne at Auteuil (FR) (Nov 2013, £135,366). The stable star of the record: Reve De Sivola (FR) — 10 wins from 47 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 14.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

12.3%−2.1

n=447 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −34.02

New recruits · first run for the yard

28.1%+13.7

n=32 · A/E 2.81 · £1 +39.50

Debutants · first career start

9.1%−5.3

n=132 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −25.90

First-time headgear · true-first definition

8.8%−5.6

n=57 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −6.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.1%−7.3

n=28 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −18.25

When favourite

30.4%

n=224 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −39.19

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

15.2%+0.8

n=507 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −26.94

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.7%−4.7

n=268 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −25.97

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 14.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With new recruits 28.1% vs 14.4% · n=32

At Auteuil (FR) 5.5% vs 14.4% · n=91

At Taunton 23.5% vs 14.4% · n=81

At Worcester 4.2% vs 14.4% · n=48

On last-time-out winners 20.9% vs 14.4% · n=244

With Noel Fehily 21.6% vs 14.4% · n=51

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 887 127 14.3% +7.90

Chase 750 107 14.3% −164.67

NH Flat 88 16 18.2% +15.30

Flat 16 1 6.3% −13.25

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 493 76 15.4% −20.49

Good 456 53 11.6% −105.32

Good to Soft 424 63 14.9% −24.16

Heavy 275 51 18.5% +51.72

Good to Firm 89 8 9% −52.47

Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Standard (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 162 19 11.7% −8.97

Exeter 126 23 18.3% −19.71

Chepstow 103 16 15.5% +47.13

Wincanton 101 15 14.9% −10.58

Newbury 97 18 18.6% +3.72

Auteuil (FR) 91 5 5.5% −14.30

Sandown 82 10 12.2% −0.50

Taunton 81 19 23.5% +10.51

Warwick 74 11 14.9% −22.57

Newton Abbot 68 8 11.8% −25.45

Ascot 63 6 9.5% −32.00

Uttoxeter 62 12 19.4% −5.83

Ludlow 57 8 14% −6.17

Kempton 54 8 14.8% −4.13

Haydock 49 10 20.4% +31.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 521 98 18.8% +33.93

Class 1 370 42 11.4% −50.96

Class 3 364 44 12.1% −119.05

Class 2 240 32 13.3% −6.90

Class 5 106 15 14.2% −9.29

Class 6 43 9 20.9% +18.05

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 276 78 28.3% 0.97 −49.72

2nd–3rd fav 564 109 19.3% 1.14 −19.80

4th–6th fav 581 51 8.8% 1.08 −48.80

7th+ in betting 318 13 4.1% 1.07 −36.40

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 570 85 14.9% −47.61

1m5f – 2m 525 86 16.4% +55.43

2m5f – 3m 452 61 13.5% −79.89

Over 3m 182 17 9.3% −82.15

1m2f – 1m4f 11 2 18.2% +0.50

1m – 1m1f 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 84 13 15.5% +14.41

2009 97 18 18.6% +8.54

2010 111 19 17.1% −9.50

2011 154 23 14.9% −17.50

2012 147 20 13.6% −59.25

2013 137 22 16.1% +72.60

2014 125 19 15.2% −18.31

2015 124 13 10.5% −67.95

2016 163 15 9.2% −69.00

2017 161 31 19.3% +48.99

2018 139 19 13.7% +11.83

2019 91 15 16.5% −16.88

2020 97 7 7.2% −53.04

2021 75 12 16% +17.38

2022 32 5 15.6% −13.04

2024 1 0 0% −1.00

2025 1 0 0% −1.00

2026 2 0 0% −2.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 922 117 12.7% −136.07

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 547 74 13.5% −114.32

5-7 runners 408 73 17.9% −12.78

11-13 runners 366 45 12.3% −61.97

14-16 runners 220 22 10% +8.82

17+ runners 131 12 9.2% +3.50

2-4 runners 69 25 36.2% +22.03

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.7% completed · 1,637 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 750 81.6% 37 22 75 3 1

Hurdle 887 91% 13 10 55 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Reve De Sivola (FR) 47 10 22 25 Mar 17

Horatio Hornblower (IRE) 44 7 19 27 Mar 21

Cornas (NZ)from Evan Williams 38 5 13 6 Dec 13

Alfie Spinner (IRE)then Kerry Lee 37 3 16 7 Nov 15

Dentley De Mee (FR)then Venetia Williams 32 3 12 23 Mar 21

The Italian Yob (IRE) 32 3 11 20 Apr 17

Agrapart (FR)then Jane Williams 31 5 10 11 Dec 20

Aubusson (FR)then Jane Williams 30 4 9 3 Nov 18

Sangfroid (GB)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt · then Tim Vaughan 30 1 12 15 Jul 12

Night Of Sin (FR)then Pat Phelan 28 5 9 20 Mar 21

Tea For Two (GB)then Jane Williams 28 9 13 20 May 18

Culture De Sivola (FR) 27 6 13 29 Feb 20

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 177 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 12 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Charlie Mann (2) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (2); 49 had their first archived run for this yard.

31 have since run for another yard, most often for Jane Williams (9) and Barry Leavy (2); 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

18171214897119101421

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLizzie Kelly

22% of all rides
15.8% SR · A/E 1.15

RiderRWSR£1

Lizzie Kelly 380 60 15.8% +32.31

Daryl Jacob 376 57 15.2% −0.21

Chester Williams 176 23 13.1% −40.87

James Reveley 117 13 11.1% −15.30

Richard Johnson 92 15 16.3% +18.88

Tom Scudamore 64 7 10.9% −42.85

Nick Scholfield 56 7 12.5% −34.13

David Noonan 54 11 20.4% +17.83

Noel Fehily 51 11 21.6% −5.62

Sam Twiston-Davies 45 5 11.1% −12.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

289

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£6.00m

Prize money

2017

Best season · 31 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Reve De Sivola (FR) — Grand Prix D'Automne (Hurdle) (5yo+) (Turf) Auteuil (FR) · Nov 2013 · Grade 1

£135,366

Diamond Harry (GB) — Hennessy Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Newbury · Nov 2010 · Class 1

£99,768

Agrapart (FR) — Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3 Handicap) Newbury · Feb 2016 · Grade 3

£88,273

Notable horses

Reve De Sivola (FR) Diamond Harry (GB) Tea For Two (GB) Horatio Hornblower (IRE) Le Rocher (FR) Culture De Sivola (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Assessor (IRE) 18.2% · 24–132

Progeny have won 9.3% of 952 runs since 2008 (106 horses). Weakest on Good going: 4.9% from 143.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 20.3% · 15–74

Progeny have won 15% of 5,355 runs since 2008 (643 horses).

Presenting (GB) 14.1% · 10–71

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Martaline (GB) 13.6% · 9–66

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,347 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Alderbrook (GB) 14.8% · 9–61

Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).

Fair Mix (IRE) 12.8% · 6–47

Progeny have won 7.3% of 2,578 runs since 2008 (251 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,983 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,983 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 23 July 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Jul 26 Vichy (FR) Rose Of Montreux (IRE)J: David Breux Prix De ChouvignyClass 3 · 14f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 15th 80/1

02 Apr 26 Auteuil (FR) Le Prince Burgond (FR)J: Giovanni Boinard Prix Guillaume Javoy (Chmpt des Apprentis & Jeunes Jockeys) (Handicap Hurdle) (Turf)18f · Soft · 18 ran 12th 135/1

05 Nov 25 Auteuil (FR) Miss Georges Allen (FR)J: Sertash Nailov-Ferhanov Prix Pre Catelan (Hurdle) (Conditions) (3yo Fillies) (Turf)17.5f · Heavy · 13 ran PU 103/1

24 Feb 24 Auteuil (FR) Just Do It Allen (FR)J: James Reveley Prix Doublon (Hurdle) (Handicap) (5yo+) (Turf)18f · Heavy · 18 ran 11th 27/1

18 Apr 22 Chepstow Moonlighter (GB)J: David Noonan Visit Irish Store Sales With ITM Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 5th 9/1

16 Apr 22 Haydock Le Cameleon (GB)J: David Noonan Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 11/1

14 Apr 22 Exeter Lady Gwen (GB)J: Chester Williams Brunswick Arms Dawlish Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 9/1

31 Mar 22 Warwick Moonlighter (GB)J: David Bass Lewis Badges Limited Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 16f · Good · 4 ran UR 3/1

29 Mar 22 Uttoxeter Yggdrasil (FR)J: David Noonan Excloosive Event Hire Novices' Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 20f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 1st 11/8F

28 Mar 22 Ludlow Lady Gwen (GB)J: David Noonan Join RacingTV Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 11/2

26 Mar 22 Stratford Galahad Quest (FR)J: David Noonan Paul Diblasio Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 22.5f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 5/2F

25 Mar 22 Newton Abbot Le Cameleon (GB)J: David Noonan Racing Partnership Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 21f · Good To Soft · 3 ran 1st 6/5F

24 Mar 22 Chepstow Favori De Sivola (FR)J: Jack Wildman Roofbase Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 30.5f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 6/1

14 Mar 22 Stratford Interne De Sivola (FR)J: Chester Williams Join RacingTV For Cheltenham Juvenile Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 1st 11/8F

12 Mar 22 Hereford Moonlighter (GB)J: David Noonan Richard Llewellyn 30th Birthday Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 16f · Soft · 5 ran 3rd 9/2

10 Mar 22 Wincanton Favori De Sivola (FR)J: David Noonan Play tote Cheltenham Ten To Follow Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 5th 4/1

27 Feb 22 Hereford Keplerian (GB)J: Chester Williams Cazoo Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 4th 5/1

27 Feb 22 Hereford Yggdrasil (FR)J: David Noonan Manor Elite Horseboxes Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 1st 2/1F

26 Feb 22 Kempton Galahad Quest (FR)J: David Noonan Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 5th 18/1

26 Feb 22 Kempton Le Cameleon (GB)J: Harry Cobden Coral 'Fail-To-Finish' Free Bets Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 7/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nick Williams's strike rate?: Nick Williams has won 251 of 1,741 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 14.4% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nick Williams do best at?: Taunton by strike rate: 19 wins from 81 runners (23.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nick Williams?: Lizzie Kelly, with 380 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 60 (15.8%).
What is Nick Williams's Fair A/E?: 1.07, from 1,736 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.