What is P A Fahy's strike rate?

P A Fahy has won 163 of 2,763 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does P A Fahy do best at?

Ballinrobe by strike rate: 12 wins from 105 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for P A Fahy?

Danny Mullins, with 192 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (6.8%).

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is P A Fahy's Fair A/E?

0.95, from 2,762 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

P A Fahy

2,763 runners in the lifetime window · 279 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 3 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

163–2,763

Wins / Runs

5.9%

Strike rate

n=2,763

536 (19%)

Placed

0.95

Fair A/E

n=2,762 · 0.74 incl. margin

−1,253.79

£1 level stake

n=2,763 at SP · −45.4%

£3.17m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.5%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.95).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,763 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Mar 26.7% when favourite Danny Mullins: 6.8% from 192 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sligo (15.8%, n=38), clear of the yard's 5.9% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 1.5% (n=67, Fair A/E 0.32). Danny Mullins rides 7% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6.8%, A/E 0.95). 20 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown (Feb 2021, £73,750). The stable star of the record: Castlegrace Paddy (IRE) — 7 wins from 32 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.8%−0.1

n=500 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −180.38

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.6%−0.3

n=36 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −21.00

Debutants · first career start

3.7%−2.2

n=217 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −115.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.2%−0.7

n=96 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −28.30

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

1.5%−4.4

n=67 · A/E 0.32 · £1 −59.00

When favourite

26.7%

n=101 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −16.95

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.4%−1.5

n=1,285 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −651.92

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.8%+0.9

n=251 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −62.67

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With R Walsh 22.6% vs 5.9% · n=31

With Barry Geraghty 16.2% vs 5.9% · n=37

At Sligo 15.8% vs 5.9% · n=38

With Ms K Walsh 14.3% vs 5.9% · n=63

With C&D winners 13% vs 5.9% · n=108

On last-time-out winners 12.3% vs 5.9% · n=154

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,103 60 5.4% −634.68

Flat 746 43 5.8% −289.62

Chase 466 34 7.3% −176.45

NH Flat 448 26 5.8% −153.04

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 1,007 53 5.3% −539.20

Good 625 29 4.6% −309.56

Heavy 584 49 8.4% −163.36

Good to Soft 282 15 5.3% −108.80

Good to Firm 179 12 6.7% −80.25

Standard (AW) 64 2 3.1% −48.62

Firm 22 3 13.6% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 284 18 6.3% −127.30

Gowran Park 230 8 3.5% −179.25

Fairyhouse 222 17 7.7% −87.25

Galway 161 5 3.1% −114.50

Leopardstown 149 7 4.7% −38.00

Limerick 145 9 6.2% −87.15

Clonmel 141 14 9.9% −36.54

Naas 139 4 2.9% −102.59

Navan 119 7 5.9% −22.67

Thurles 106 8 7.5% −18.62

Ballinrobe 105 12 11.4% +59.75

Down Royal 102 7 6.9% −14.75

Tramore 98 4 4.1% −64.75

Cork 87 7 8% −19.50

Curragh 83 1 1.2% −76.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 241 16 6.6% −60.67

Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00

Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00

Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 124 32 25.8% 1.12 −18.95

2nd–3rd fav 393 65 16.5% 1.20 −7.84

4th–6th fav 700 35 5% 0.72 −343.00

7th+ in betting 1,546 31 2% 0.75 −884.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 1,048 67 6.4% −451.16

2m1f – 2m4f 818 46 5.6% −467.66

2m5f – 3m 327 16 4.9% −139.75

1m2f – 1m4f 199 13 6.5% −90.50

6f – 7f 143 10 7% −62.22

1m – 1m1f 140 5 3.6% −18.00

Over 3m 84 6 7.1% −20.50

Under 6f 4 0 0% −4.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 252 16 6.3% −121.95

2009 221 12 5.4% −126.50

2010 115 6 5.2% −52.62

2011 53 6 11.3% +71.50

2012 60 2 3.3% −50.75

2013 81 10 12.3% −24.21

2014 137 6 4.4% −103.55

2015 147 17 11.6% −5.04

2016 191 14 7.3% −47.65

2017 182 14 7.7% −58.25

2018 216 16 7.4% −111.92

2019 177 4 2.3% −149.38

2020 166 7 4.2% −45.67

2021 162 6 3.7% −119.50

2022 106 6 5.7% −36.00

2023 147 4 2.7% −99.80

2024 116 3 2.6% −60.00

2025 121 10 8.3% −44.00

2026 113 4 3.5% −68.50

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,202 83 6.9% −336.25

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 848 49 5.8% −406.88

17+ runners 711 30 4.2% −380.29

11-13 runners 633 37 5.8% −332.95

8-10 runners 399 33 8.3% −37.25

5-7 runners 163 11 6.7% −96.75

2-4 runners 9 3 33.3% +0.33

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

85.5% completed · 1,569 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 466 77.3% 24 14 63 3 2

Hurdle 1,103 88.9% 24 17 76 4 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Western Boy (IRE) 51 6 15 9 May 21

Stormy Belle (IRE) 51 5 16 1 Nov 20

Drop The Anchor (IRE) 49 6 11 12 Sep 25

Tongie (IRE) 46 3 13 19 Jan 21

Awayinthewest (IRE) 44 3 16 2 Feb 20

Spanish John (IRE) 42 3 9 9 Nov 26

You Make Me Smile (IRE) 42 5 12 23 Oct 26

History Of Fashion (IRE) 40 3 9 30 Nov 25

Mister Fogpatches (IRE) 40 2 16 20 Jun 24

Good As Gold (GB) 40 3 13 27 Mar 16

Stormy Judge (IRE) 38 2 8 20 Jan 26

Dunvegan (FR) 37 6 18 31 Jul 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 279 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 15 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tim Vaughan (2); 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Matt Sheppard (2) and Pat Phelan (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 9

Only 9 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

677658556557

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDanny Mullins

7% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 0.95

RiderRWSR£1

Danny Mullins 192 13 6.8% −84.45

Richard Condon 125 3 2.4% −106.30

Mr C Fahy 113 12 10.6% +48.75

Richard Deegan 81 3 3.7% −59.50

Rob McCarth 81 6 7.4% −19.95

Cillin Leonard 81 3 3.7% −52.25

Harry Sexton 79 5 6.3% +1.50

Paul Townend 71 8 11.3% −25.75

David Mullins 65 6 9.2% +8.35

Ms K Walsh 63 9 14.3% −0.52

Declan McDonogh 57 3 5.3% +11.00

Brian Hayes 56 2 3.6% −45.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

227

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£4.18m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 25 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Drop The Anchor (IRE) — Ladbrokes Hurdle (Extended Handicap Hurdle) (0-150) (Grade B) Leopardstown · Feb 2021 · Grade B

£73,750

Drop The Anchor (IRE) — Colm White Bookmaker November Handicap (Premier Handicap) Naas · Nov 2022

£53,100

Morning Assembly (IRE) — Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2013 · Grade 1

£49,600

Notable horses

Castlegrace Paddy (IRE) Western Boy (IRE) Drop The Anchor (IRE) My Valley (IRE) Dunvegan (FR) Head Turner (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Shantou (USA) 9.6% · 19–198

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,845 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Beneficial (GB) 7.3% · 12–164

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Fairly Ransom (USA) 4.8% · 4–84

Progeny have won 9.8% of 542 runs since 2009 (48 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.8% from 104.

King's Theatre (IRE) 11.8% · 8–68

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 8.5% · 5–59

Progeny have won 7.7% of 3,162 runs since 2015 (317 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 12.3% · 7–57

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,297 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,745 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,745 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 10 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Senorita Diana (IRE)J: J. J. Slevin Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 8th 28/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Spanish John (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 14th 9/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) A Chairde Go Leir (IRE)J: Niall Moore Matchbook 50/50 Series Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran UR 150/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Gotawinnerinyou (IRE)J: J. J. Slevin Matchbook 50/50 Series Mares Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 9th 100/1

09 Nov 26 Punchestown (IRE) Moorish Castle (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Steeplechase24.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 9/1

08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Fiery Robin (IRE)J: Anna McGuinness Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 10th 40/1

08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Better Be Elusive (IRE)J: Mr D O'Sullivan Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Irish EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 8th 50/1

08 Nov 26 Naas (IRE) Barrow Side Boy (IRE)J: Richard Condon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle19f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 6th 300/1

31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Brucejack (IRE)J: J. J. Slevin Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Steeplechase24f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 11/1

30 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Dark Lieutenant (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Eventsec Handicap Hurdle24.5f · Good To Yielding · 20 ran 11th 4/1F

25 Oct 26 Wexford (IRE) Better Be Elusive (IRE)J: Mr D O'Sullivan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares (Pro/Am) Flat Race17.5f · Soft · 8 ran 5th 80/1

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Spanish John (IRE)J: Josh Williamson Solar Generation Handicap Hurdle25.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 15/2

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Moorish Castle (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Solar Generation Handicap Hurdle25.5f · Yielding To Soft · 9 ran 1st 25/1

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) You Make Me Smile (IRE)J: Danny Mullins End Of An Era Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 1st 11/2

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Plus Or Minus (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Callan Tansey Handicap Hurdle (Div II)17.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 9th 16/1

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Home By The Sea (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Callan Tansey Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 10th 5/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Lauro's Legend (IRE)J: Richard Condon Mahon Falls Novice Handicap Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran PU 100/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Senorita Diana (IRE)J: Richard Condon Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 300/1

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Dark Lieutenant (IRE)J: Mr D O'Sullivan Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 2nd 25/1

19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Stormy Dawn (IRE)J: W. J. Lee Golf At Gowran Park Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 12 ran 2nd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Nov 2026: top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 8 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is P A Fahy's strike rate?: P A Fahy has won 163 of 2,763 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.9% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P A Fahy do best at?: Ballinrobe by strike rate: 12 wins from 105 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for P A Fahy?: Danny Mullins, with 192 runners since 2008 — 7% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (6.8%).
Is P A Fahy in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 9 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is P A Fahy's Fair A/E?: 0.95, from 2,762 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.