Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 130 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 17% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).
Deterministic profile computed from 2,512 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Mar–Jun34.1% when favouriteStephane Pasquier: 16.7% from 729Sends off the favourite in 18% of races
The read
The record is strongest at Compiegne (31.7%, n=41) and Saint-Cloud (FR) (23.1%, n=420) — all clear of the yard's 16.6% baseline. It is weakest at Deauville (FR) (12.6% over 491 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 11.3% (n=97, Fair A/E 0.74). Stephane Pasquier rides 29% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (16.7%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. 106 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qipco Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly (FR) (Jun 2018, £758,496). The stable star of the record: Roatan (GB) — 10 wins from 28 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–Jun.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 16.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
16%−0.6
n=607 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −35.80
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.6%−5.0
n=43 · A/E 0.70 · £1 +2.30
Debutants · first career start
14.3%−2.3
n=495 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −43.50
First-time headgear · true-first definition
11.3%−5.3
n=97 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −50.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.1%−5.5
n=9 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −5.60
When favourite
34.1%
n=451 · A/E 1.11 · £1 +21.43
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
15.8%−0.8
n=183 · A/E 1.04 · £1 +10.20
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
14.2%−2.4
n=655 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −110.72
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Compiegne31.7% vs 16.6% · n=41
With Louis-Philippe Beuzelin6.4% vs 16.6% · n=47
At Saint-Cloud (FR)23.1% vs 16.6% · n=420
With C&D winners21.8% vs 16.6% · n=293
With Pierre-Charles Boudot22.8% vs 16.6% · n=79
At Deauville (FR)12.6% vs 16.6% · n=491
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good70813118.5%+37.95
Soft64010215.9%−109.65
Good to Soft5259117.3%−71.07
Standard (AW)4405913.4%−108.90
Heavy1963316.8%+0.90
Good to Firm2150%+1.75
Firm100%—
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)61910016.2%−113.87
Longchamp (FR)5648715.4%−64.30
Deauville (FR)4916212.6%−62.40
Saint-Cloud (FR)4209723.1%+111.30
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)2833713.1%−125.00
Compiegne411331.7%−12.50
Clairefontaine19526.3%+6.90
Fontainebleau14214.3%−1.20
Lyon Parilly12325%−0.10
Dieppe7342.9%+3.00
Toulouse (FR)500%−5.00
Le Touquet400%−2.00
Le Lion-D'Angers400%−2.00
Le Croise-Laroche (FR)4125%+3.00
Evreux3266.7%+5.30
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 16559314.2%−110.72
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite47715933.3%1.10+15.73
2nd–3rd fav82613015.7%0.94−196.05
4th–6th fav746648.6%0.98−153.40
7th+ in betting296196.4%1.53+84.70
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f1,02616516.1%−128.95
1m2f – 1m4f81815318.7%−36.37
6f – 7f4896713.7%−97.70
Under 6f1011817.8%−18.80
1m5f – 2m781417.9%+32.80
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081101917.3%−29.55
2009952425.3%−8.80
20102103717.6%−9.10
20112254319.1%+85.10
20122424518.6%−36.50
20132343615.4%−57.70
20142124320.3%+34.85
20151882412.8%−54.10
20161602113.1%−40.65
20171232016.3%+4.23
20181222318.9%+30.70
20191482315.5%−32.60
20201061615.1%−21.90
20211302015.4%−38.90
2022821214.6%−9.60
202369811.6%−39.30
20245635.4%−25.20
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2353414.5%+50.80
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners84113115.6%−116.25
5-7 runners56610919.3%−137.82
11-13 runners4837014.5%−49.90
14-16 runners3684712.8%−8.55
2-4 runners1445034.7%+27.00
17+ runners110109.1%+36.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 552 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 53 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for Alain Couetil (2) and F Vermeulen (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
19311819191915111713229
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Study Of Man (IRE) — Qipco Prix du Jockey Club (3yo Colts & Fillies) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2018 · Group 1
£758,496
Senga (USA) — Prix de Diane Longines (3yo Fillies) (Turf) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2017 · Group 1
Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,842 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.
Galileo (IRE)26.7% · 20–75
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,200 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.4% from 890.
Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,881 runs since 2010 (949 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.
Cape Cross (IRE)10% · 4–40
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,804 runs since 2009 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,842 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,842 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 24 March 2005 to 12 November 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is P Bary's strike rate?
P Bary has won 417 of 2,512 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does P Bary do best at?
Compiegne by strike rate: 13 wins from 41 runners (31.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for P Bary?
Stephane Pasquier, with 729 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 122 (16.7%).
What is P Bary's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 2,302 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
P Bary·SR 16.6%·A/E 1.03
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