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Trainer profile

Paul A Roche

262 runners in the lifetime window · 44 individual horses
As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jan 2013
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
7–262
Wins / Runs
2.7%
Strike rate
n=262
37 (14%)
Placed
0.49
Fair A/E
n=261 · 0.37 incl. margin
−201.88
£1 level stake
n=262 at SP · −77.1%
£135k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.49). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 5% off breaks of two months or more (61 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 262 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 4.9% Mr D Roche: 0% from 56
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 0.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.18 and −92.00 to a £1 stake over 107 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Mr D Roche rode 21% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (0% vs 2.7%, A/E 0.00). The yard also read well in Hurdle races (6.6%, n=91) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (5.7%, n=70). The market has consistently overbet the yard on Soft going: Fair A/E 0.00 across 73 runners (0% strike, −73.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Leopardstown Handicap Chase at Leopardstown (Jan 2010, £52,080).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.9%+2.2
n=61 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −31.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−2.7
n=19 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −19.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.7
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.7%+4.0
n=15 · A/E 1.63 · £1 −9.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −1.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
0.9%−1.8
n=107 · A/E 0.18 · £1 −92.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
9.1%+6.4
n=11 · A/E 2.17 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Hurdle races 6.6% vs 2.7% · n=91
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 5.7% vs 2.7% · n=70
On Soft going 0% vs 2.7% · n=73
In Flat races 0% vs 2.7% · n=61
With Mr D Roche 0% vs 2.7% · n=56
Off a break of 180+ days 5.6% vs 2.7% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 91 6 6.6% −38.88
Chase 70 1 1.4% −62.00
Flat 61 0 0% −61.00
NH Flat 40 0 0% −40.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 81 3 3.7% −54.50
Soft 73 0 0% −73.00
Good to Firm 37 2 5.4% −26.38
Heavy 37 1 2.7% −29.00
Good to Soft 17 0 0% −17.00
Firm 12 1 8.3% +3.00
Standard (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Tramore 30 0 0% −30.00
Killarney 24 1 4.2% −7.00
Punchestown 18 0 0% −18.00
Limerick 17 0 0% −17.00
Gowran Park 17 0 0% −17.00
Cork 16 0 0% −16.00
Clonmel 16 1 6.3% −1.00
Leopardstown 14 1 7.1% −6.00
Wexford 14 0 0% −14.00
Tipperary 12 0 0% −12.00
Naas 11 0 0% −11.00
Listowel 11 0 0% −11.00
Fairyhouse 9 0 0% −9.00
Thurles 8 0 0% −8.00
Bellewstown 6 0 0% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 11 1 9.1% −3.00
Class 4 6 3 50% +8.62
Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 8 2 25% 1.05 −2.38
2nd–3rd fav 26 2 7.7% 0.65 −12.50
4th–6th fav 64 1 1.6% 0.27 −55.00
7th+ in betting 164 2 1.2% 0.36 −132.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
79.5% completed · 161 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 70 65.7% 5 0 17 2 0
Hurdle 91 90.1% 0 0 7 0 2
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Island Oscar (IRE) 23 2 5 20 Jan 12
Anothercoppercoast (IRE) 19 1 3 16 May 11
Bluebell Rock (IRE)from Noel Meade 14 0 1 23 Jul 11
Majic Moments (IRE)from Charlie Longsdon 12 0 2 21 Jan 12
Ten Pinhal (IRE)from Ms A M Kent 12 0 2 9 Oct 11
Joys Island (IRE) 11 0 4 25 May 12
Carrolls Cross (IRE) 11 2 3 26 Dec 11
Presenting Prince (IRE) 11 0 1 17 May 11
Buckthorn (GB)from G Wragg 11 0 1 10 Jul 09
Ibelieveinmiracles (IRE)from M Halford 10 0 1 8 Jul 11
Majestic Cheer (GB)from W Power · then John Harris 10 0 1 29 Aug 08
Whiskey And Red (IRE)then Colin Bowe 9 1 1 4 Sep 12
All 44 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 44 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ms A M Kent (2) and Noel Meade (2); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Charlie Longsdon (3) and V T Keane (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
5000230413000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderMr D Roche
21% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Mr D Roche 56 0 0% −56.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
19
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£425k
Prize money
2007
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Anothercoppercoast (IRE) — Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade A) Leopardstown · Jan 2010 · Grade A
£52,080
Anothercoppercoast (IRE) — paddypowercasino.com EBF Novice Chase Cork · Nov 2006
£17,577
Hasanpour (IRE) — Cawley Furniture Ltd. Novice Handicap Chase (0-116) Fairyhouse · Apr 2006
£13,020
Notable horses
Anothercoppercoast (IRE) Joys Island (IRE) Island Oscar (IRE) Lyical Assassin (IRE) Carrolls Cross (IRE) Hasanpour (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oscar (IRE) 5.7% · 2–35
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Presenting (GB) 3% · 1–33
Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.
Choisir (AUS) 0% · 0–14
Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).
Blueprint (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,670 runs since 2008 (137 horses).
Heron Island (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 11.2% of 2,819 runs since 2008 (317 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14.2% from 162.
Flemensfirth (USA) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 494 · newest first

The latest 50 of 494 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 January 2005 to 12 January 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Jan 13 Punchestown Garden Morris (IRE)J: A E Lynch I.N.H. Stallion Owners E.B.F. Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 12 ran 11th 33/1
30 Nov 12 Thurles Ballinlough Lady (IRE)J: J R Barry Thurles Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 18 ran 17th 20/1
14 Oct 12 Limerick Bach Protector (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan STL Logistics E.B.F. Beginners Chase (Div 1)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran F 50/1
06 Sep 12 Clonmel Green Bank (IRE)J: David Splaine Munster Opportunity Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 18 ran 8th 20/1
04 Sep 12 Downpatrick Whiskey And Red (IRE)J: Davy Russell Willie Murphy Jewellers, Downpatrick Handicap Hurdle (80-102)23f · Good · 14 ran 1st 9/2
19 Aug 12 Tramore Aljapip (IRE)J: Ian Power 2012 Tramore Races Centenary Year Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 12 ran 11th 25/1
28 Jul 12 Wexford Green Bank (IRE)J: David Splaine www.wexfordraces.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Firm · 14 ran 5th 16/1
26 Jul 12 Limerick Ballyhampshire Man (IRE)J: Mr D W Walsh Limerick's Live 95FM Beginners Chase19.5f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 7/1
26 Jul 12 Limerick Green Bank (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Ladies Day 14th October (c & G) Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 18 ran 10th 33/1
11 Jul 12 Wexford Ballyhampshire Man (IRE)J: Mr D W Walsh Tuskar Rock Beginners Chase25f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 20/1
11 Jul 12 Wexford Green Bank (IRE)J: Ian Power Ferrycarraig (c & G) Maiden Hurdle20f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 33/1
04 Jun 12 Listowel Ballyhampshire Man (IRE)J: Mr D W Walsh Listowel Race Directors Hunters Chase24f · Yielding · 17 ran 2nd 25/1
25 May 12 Cork Green Bank (IRE)J: Mr D Roche mallow.ie Flat Race16f · Good · 20 ran 13th 33/1
25 May 12 Cork Joys Island (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Niall McCarthy Memorial Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 50/1
21 Jan 12 Naas Majic Moments (IRE)J: Declan Bates Cheltenham Trial Day 26th February Handicap Chase (0-109)16f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 12th 20/1
20 Jan 12 Dundalk (AW) Island Oscar (IRE)J: Emmet McNamara Bookings at dundalkstadium.com Maiden12f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 25/1
19 Jan 12 Thurles Garden Morris (IRE)J: Michael Darcy www.thurlesraces.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 17 ran RO 66/1
08 Jan 12 Naas Garden Morris (IRE)J: Michael Darcy Annual Membership At Naas Maiden Hurdle19f · Soft To Heavy · 19 ran 12th 33/1
07 Jan 12 Thurles Whiskey And Red (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Kennedy's Parnell St. Live Music Venue Handicap Chase (0-102)24f · Heavy · 13 ran PU 11/2
01 Jan 12 Tramore Majic Moments (IRE)J: Michael Darcy Tom Carroll Memorial Handicap Chase (0-95)21f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 10/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul A Roche's strike rate?
Paul A Roche has won 7 of 262 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul A Roche do best at?
Tramore by strike rate: 0 wins from 30 runners (0%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul A Roche?
Mr D Roche, with 56 runners since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 0 (0%).
What is Paul A Roche's Fair A/E?
0.49, from 261 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 5 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).