What is Paul Nicholls's strike rate?

Paul Nicholls has won 2,525 of 11,043 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 22.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Nicholls do best at?

Fontwell by strike rate: 105 wins from 303 runners (34.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Nicholls?

Harry Cobden, with 2,838 runners since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 691 (24.3%).

Is Paul Nicholls in form?

In the last 14 days: 32 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 18.8%. That is below the baseline of 22.9% since 2008.

What is Paul Nicholls's Fair A/E?

1.04, from 11,025 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Nicholls

11,043 runners in the lifetime window · 1,167 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 9.1% of 495 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 12 Nov 2026.

Last runner yesterday 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

2,525–11,043

Wins / Runs

22.9%

Strike rate

n=11,043

4,868 (44%)

Placed

1.04

Fair A/E

n=11,025 · 0.91 incl. margin

−1,528.12

£1 level stake

n=11,040 at SP · −13.8%

£55.9m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

17.8%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 580 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 23% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.04). Debutants are a strength: 26% on first career starts (589 runs). The yard is quiet just now — 6 winners in the last fortnight, below its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 11,043 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Nov 42.6% when favourite Harry Cobden: 24.3% from 2,838 New recruits: 24.7% Sends off the favourite in 30% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Fontwell (34.7%, n=303), clear of the yard's 22.9% baseline. It is weakest at Cheltenham (12.5% over 1,261 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 15.9% (n=2,083, Fair A/E 0.98). Right now the yard is in a quiet spell: 6 from 32 runners in the last 14 days (18.8%, 4.1pts below the 22.9% baseline). Harry Cobden rides 26% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (24.3%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (33.3%, n=462) and in Class 4 (30.3%, n=2,767). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 15.6% over 2,930 runners, 7.3pts below the baseline. 362 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the John Smith's Grand National Chase at Aintree (Apr 2012, £547,268). The stable star of the record: Big Buck's (FR) — 21 wins from 27 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 22.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

22.6%−0.3

n=3,479 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −532.58

New recruits · first run for the yard

24.7%+1.8

n=458 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −104.01

Debutants · first career start

25.8%+2.9

n=589 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −51.72

First-time headgear · true-first definition

20.9%−2.0

n=609 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −60.02

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

19.1%−3.8

n=220 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −8.09

When favourite

42.6%

n=3,260 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −285.60

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

20.3%−2.6

n=2,313 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −253.11

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

15.9%−7.0

n=2,083 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −497.35

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 22.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Cheltenham 12.5% vs 22.9% · n=1,261

At Fontwell 34.7% vs 22.9% · n=303

On Good to Firm going 33.3% vs 22.9% · n=462

At Aintree 12.9% vs 22.9% · n=534

In Class 4 30.3% vs 22.9% · n=2,767

In Class 1 15.6% vs 22.9% · n=2,930

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 5,344 1246 23.3% −619.67

Chase 4,710 1061 22.5% −700.73

NH Flat 845 200 23.7% −148.77

Flat 144 18 12.5% −58.95

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 3,874 913 23.6% −604.28

Good to Soft 3,205 686 21.4% −498.05

Soft 2,529 560 22.1% −220.26

Heavy 840 188 22.4% −204.46

Good to Firm 462 154 33.3% +24.05

Standard (AW) 115 18 15.7% −17.64

Firm 18 6 33.3% −7.48

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 1,261 158 12.5% −264.36

Wincanton 973 279 28.7% −95.24

Newbury 732 149 20.4% −51.63

Taunton 724 225 31.1% −21.74

Chepstow 715 153 21.4% −184.34

Kempton 692 137 19.8% −159.32

Sandown 624 119 19.1% −44.17

Newton Abbot 602 181 30.1% −76.00

Ascot 584 108 18.5% −62.82

Aintree 534 69 12.9% −163.05

Exeter 480 138 28.8% −81.25

Fontwell 303 105 34.7% −5.83

Doncaster 223 51 22.9% −55.17

Worcester 215 61 28.4% −12.87

Haydock 208 42 20.2% −51.19

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 2,930 458 15.6% −657.96

Class 4 2,767 838 30.3% −248.91

Class 3 2,445 614 25.1% −340.52

Class 2 1,898 339 17.9% −165.23

Class 5 741 197 26.6% −80.95

Class 6 259 78 30.1% −35.55

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 3,614 1475 40.8% 1.05 −293.49

2nd–3rd fav 3,941 801 20.3% 1.05 −443.96

4th–6th fav 2,251 195 8.7% 0.97 −465.67

7th+ in betting 1,234 51 4.1% 0.99 −325.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 3,371 795 23.6% −387.58

2m5f – 3m 3,321 714 21.5% −604.58

1m5f – 2m 3,275 844 25.8% −351.27

Over 3m 1,003 166 16.6% −149.19

1m2f – 1m4f 43 4 9.3% −18.00

6f – 7f 14 0 0% −14.00

Under 6f 11 2 18.2% +1.50

1m – 1m1f 5 0 0% −5.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 685 188 27.4% −36.63

2009 574 133 23.2% −121.87

2010 525 121 23% −21.65

2011 641 142 22.2% −129.70

2012 565 131 23.2% −88.22

2013 609 134 22% −103.50

2014 548 112 20.4% −76.67

2015 538 118 21.9% −33.01

2016 661 168 25.4% +0.18

2017 665 152 22.9% −154.00

2018 595 124 20.8% −61.66

2019 573 114 19.9% −155.48

2020 591 155 26.2% −4.76

2021 698 175 25.1% −97.77

2022 579 139 24% −115.45

2023 587 140 23.9% −29.39

2024 571 126 22.1% −102.74

2025 490 91 18.6% −138.82

2026 348 62 17.8% −56.98

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 5,149 810 15.7% −762.59

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

5-7 runners 3,047 874 28.7% −262.90

8-10 runners 2,742 607 22.1% −237.48

11-13 runners 1,925 363 18.9% −226.19

14-16 runners 1,206 180 14.9% −286.20

2-4 runners 1,081 424 39.2% −163.18

17+ runners 1,039 74 7.1% −352.17

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.8% completed · 10,054 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 4,710 82% 230 105 497 8 10

Hurdle 5,344 91.1% 133 38 297 4 5

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Frodon (FR)from G Macaire 47 18 25 26 Dec 23

San Benedeto (FR)from C Lerner 47 10 19 31 Mar 21

Dolos (FR)from G Macaire 41 7 20 1 May 23

Black Corton (FR)from S Foucher 36 13 22 27 Feb 21

Alcala (FR)from G Macaire 35 11 17 3 Feb 22

Unioniste (FR)from G Macaire 35 9 13 7 May 19

Rebel Rebellion (IRE)from Charlie Mann 35 9 15 28 Aug 17

Five Dream (FR)from G Gorgone 35 4 10 9 Feb 13

Southfield Vic (IRE)from Bob Buckler 34 12 18 1 Feb 20

Old Guard (GB)from Roger Charlton 34 8 15 24 Feb 19

Ptit Zig (FR)from Yannick Fouin 34 10 18 24 Feb 18

Silviniaco Conti (FR) 34 14 21 6 Apr 17

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 1,167 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 26 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 45 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from G Macaire (8) and G Cherel (3); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

6 from 32 18.8% · −4.1pts vs baseline

Last 14 days18.8%

Lifetime base22.9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

202419222827252627272421

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderHarry Cobden

26% of all rides
24.3% SR · A/E 1.04

RiderRWSR£1

Harry Cobden 2,838 691 24.3% −495.99

Sam Twiston-Davies 1,290 290 22.5% −205.66

R Walsh 1,079 315 29.2% −52.11

Daryl Jacob 708 183 25.8% −10.87

Nick Scholfield 602 118 19.6% −110.73

Bryony Frost 529 127 24% +46.11

Lorcan Williams 441 78 17.7% −109.05

Harry Skelton 322 64 19.9% −40.27

Sam Thomas 289 67 23.2% −76.43

Freddie Gingell 279 58 20.8% −47.96

Harry Derham 258 41 15.9% −75.85

Ryan Mahon 239 37 15.5% −58.22

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

2,940

Archived wins

362

Pattern / graded wins

£64.4m

Prize money

2008

Best season · 188 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Neptune Collonges (FR) — John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) Aintree · Apr 2012 · Class 1

£547,268

Kauto Star (FR) — Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2009 · Class 1

£270,798

Denman (IRE) — totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2008 · Class 1

£268,279

Notable horses

Big Buck's (FR) Frodon (FR) Kauto Star (FR) Silviniaco Conti (FR) Denman (IRE) Black Corton (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 22.7% · 99–436

Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Kapgarde (FR) 19.4% · 76–391

Progeny have won 12.4% of 6,646 runs since 2008 (727 horses).

Dom Alco (FR) 26.7% · 75–281

Progeny have won 17.1% of 1,831 runs since 2008 (159 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 21.5% from 326. Weakest on Good going: 14.1% from 389.

Saint Des Saints (FR) 20.1% · 56–278

Progeny have won 15% of 5,365 runs since 2008 (645 horses).

Martaline (GB) 20.6% · 51–248

Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,350 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.

Kayf Tara (GB) 27.9% · 63–226

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,769 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 12,899 · newest first

The latest 50 of 12,899 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 11 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

11 Nov 26 Warwick Paddy De Pole (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley BNG Made Easy With Reverte Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 11/4

08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Centara (IRE)J: Jay Tidball 3A's Leisure Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 4 ran PU 3/1

08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Lancelot Du Large (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Fedwen Tentage Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 6th 7/1

08 Nov 26 Ffos Las Karaka De Thaix (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Bridge Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 5/2

07 Nov 26 Aintree Red Risk (FR)J: Freddie Keighley Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 7th 22/1

07 Nov 26 Aintree No Drama This End (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Boodles Rising Stars Novices' Steeple Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 20f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 4th 8/11F

07 Nov 26 Aintree Sans Bruit (FR)J: Jay Tidball William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 16f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 5/2

06 Nov 26 Aintree Rubaud (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies BetMGM Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (Grade 2) (Limited Handicap Chase) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 4/1

06 Nov 26 Fontwell Paso Doble (IRE)J: Paddy Hanlon Gary Wrights Big 40th Birthday Celebration Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19f · Good · 8 ran 6th 8/1

06 Nov 26 Aintree Below The Radar (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Download The BetMGM App Novices' Limited Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 25f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 2nd 4/1

05 Nov 26 Newbury Treble Three (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies BetVictor Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Div II) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 6/1

05 Nov 26 Newbury Wordfromhome (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies British Horse Society Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 1st 5/4F

05 Nov 26 Newbury Sappingirl (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Check Out The BetVictor Betbuilder Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

05 Nov 26 Newbury Treasure Planet (IRE)J: Freddie Keighley OLBG Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 7th 5/2F

05 Nov 26 Plumpton Bond Broker (IRE)J: Jay Tidball Download The Star Sports App Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 3 ran 1st 6/4

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Don't Panic (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Dunraven Open National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 1st 5/2F

04 Nov 26 Chepstow Order On Time (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies LSL Racing 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 2nd 1/2F

04 Nov 26 Chepstow New Rules (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Free Tips On attheraces.com Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 1st 7/2

02 Nov 26 Plumpton One Island (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Southern Access Platforms Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 6 ran 5th 10/1

02 Nov 26 Plumpton Rickety Bridge (FR)J: Freddie Gingell Kalm Club Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 25.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 14 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 8 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 5 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 7 runs (won 0) · to 8 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul Nicholls's strike rate?: Paul Nicholls has won 2,525 of 11,043 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 22.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Nicholls do best at?: Fontwell by strike rate: 105 wins from 303 runners (34.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Nicholls?: Harry Cobden, with 2,838 runners since 2008 — 26% of the total. That pairing has won 691 (24.3%).
Is Paul Nicholls in form?: In the last 14 days: 32 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 18.8%. That is below the baseline of 22.9% since 2008.
What is Paul Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 1.04, from 11,025 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.