What is Paul Nolan's strike rate?

Paul Nolan has won 386 of 4,290 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Nolan do best at?

Wexford by strike rate: 21 wins from 129 runners (16.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Nolan?

Sean O'Keeffe, with 463 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 47 (10.2%).

Is Paul Nolan in form?

In the last 14 days: 32 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 18.8%. That is above the baseline of 9% since 2008.

What is Paul Nolan's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 4,288 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Nolan

4,290 runners in the lifetime window · 543 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 6.8% of 311 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 5 Nov 2026.

In form — 6 winners last 14 days Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 93% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

386–4,290

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=4,290

1,175 (27%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=4,288 · 0.78 incl. margin

−1,408.62

£1 level stake

n=4,290 at SP · −32.8%

£7.20m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 230 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). The yard is in form now — 6 winners in the last fortnight, above its own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 4,290 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10.3% 32.3% when favourite Sean O'Keeffe: 10.2% from 463 Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Wexford (16.3%, n=129), clear of the yard's 9% baseline. The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 7.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.76 and −248.97 to a £1 stake over 471 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the yard is firing: 6 winners from 32 runners in the last 14 days (18.8%, 9.8pts above the 9% baseline). Sean O'Keeffe rides 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.2%, A/E 1.08) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 49 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap at Galway (IRE) (Aug 2006, £121,300). The stable star of the record: Moskova (IRE) — 9 wins from 35 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

10.3%+1.3

n=907 · A/E 1.14 · £1 −132.13

New recruits · first run for the yard

8.6%−0.4

n=81 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −36.50

Debutants · first career start

6.2%−2.8

n=406 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −121.26

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.3%−1.7

n=274 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −82.25

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

7.1%−1.9

n=126 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −18.00

When favourite

32.3%

n=319 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −31.19

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

7.4%−1.6

n=1,720 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −667.98

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.9%−1.1

n=471 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −248.97

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Davy Russell 17.9% vs 9% · n=173

With Mark Walsh 20% vs 9% · n=50

With R Walsh 21.2% vs 9% · n=33

With Patrick O'Sullivan 0% vs 9% · n=61

With Adam Williams 0% vs 9% · n=56

At Wexford 16.3% vs 9% · n=129

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 2,562 222 8.7% −772.28

Chase 1,061 119 11.2% −350.72

NH Flat 367 34 9.3% −64.87

Flat 300 11 3.7% −220.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 1,603 140 8.7% −491.82

Heavy 1,097 102 9.3% −402.63

Good 881 76 8.6% −344.55

Good to Soft 468 42 9% −121.40

Good to Firm 182 21 11.5% −29.22

Standard (AW) 40 1 2.5% −31.00

Firm 19 4 21.1% +12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 413 25 6.1% −248.71

Fairyhouse 406 33 8.1% −48.80

Wexford 356 51 14.3% +33.00

Limerick 335 48 14.3% −40.60

Cork 265 21 7.9% −141.85

Leopardstown 258 18 7% −80.25

Navan 254 15 5.9% −149.13

Gowran Park 215 14 6.5% −99.50

Naas 197 17 8.6% −116.44

Thurles 150 17 11.3% −14.87

Tramore 140 11 7.9% −75.50

Clonmel 139 12 8.6% −72.42

Wexford 129 21 16.3% −8.62

Listowel 110 7 6.4% −54.00

Galway 107 7 6.5% −16.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 502 38 7.6% −274.97

Class 2 23 3 13% +34.00

Class 4 7 1 14.3% −2.00

Class 3 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 387 115 29.7% 1.11 −49.61

2nd–3rd fav 969 136 14% 0.95 −257.01

4th–6th fav 1,271 96 7.6% 1.03 −310.00

7th+ in betting 1,663 39 2.3% 0.78 −792.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 1,564 160 10.2% −382.74

1m5f – 2m 1,502 120 8% −583.96

2m5f – 3m 921 93 10.1% −273.42

Over 3m 131 9 6.9% −40.50

1m2f – 1m4f 99 3 3% −68.00

1m – 1m1f 42 1 2.4% −29.00

6f – 7f 30 0 0% −30.00

Under 6f 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 348 26 7.5% −127.42

2009 238 36 15.1% +21.29

2010 255 26 10.2% −121.21

2011 250 31 12.4% −17.82

2012 190 14 7.4% −114.50

2013 208 23 11.1% −57.48

2014 204 20 9.8% −21.18

2015 183 17 9.3% −81.07

2016 169 11 6.5% −36.50

2017 177 8 4.5% −65.37

2018 178 18 10.1% −51.08

2019 222 20 9% −92.81

2020 209 10 4.8% −152.35

2021 276 25 9.1% −112.97

2022 185 14 7.6% −96.51

2023 222 17 7.7% −91.69

2024 266 21 7.9% −105.75

2025 284 24 8.5% −84.17

2026 226 25 11.1% −0.03

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,804 124 6.9% −685.34

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 1,197 99 8.3% −350.18

17+ runners 1,157 64 5.5% −470.08

11-13 runners 930 84 9% −359.54

8-10 runners 638 84 13.2% −164.98

5-7 runners 320 47 14.7% −63.12

2-4 runners 48 8 16.7% −0.72

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

87.3% completed · 3,623 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 1,061 79.5% 65 26 119 5 2

Hurdle 2,562 90.5% 42 20 171 4 6

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

The Mooch (IRE)then Neill McCluskey 39 5 11 30 Apr 18

Noble Prince (GER)from A Fabre 39 8 18 6 Feb 16

Mon Lino (FR) 37 4 13 10 May 21

Illtakeitfromhere (IRE) 36 3 11 12 Oct 16

Wild Desire (IRE) 35 2 10 25 Aug 21

Fine Theatre (IRE)then Richard Phillips 35 4 8 1 May 21

Solita (IRE) 35 7 16 20 Jul 17

Far Away So Close (IRE) 34 6 16 30 Nov 13

Crazyheart (IRE) 33 2 12 18 Apr 21

Quamino (GER) 32 4 8 14 Nov 21

Park Of Kings (IRE) 30 3 9 14 Oct 26

Fitzhenry (IRE) 30 2 13 25 May 21

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 543 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 17 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive; 51 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (2); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

In form

6 from 32 18.8% · +9.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days18.8%

Lifetime base9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1181199125691178

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSean O'Keeffe

11% of all rides
10.2% SR · A/E 1.08

RiderRWSR£1

Sean O'Keeffe 463 47 10.2% −74.41

Alain Cawley 376 41 10.9% −33.73

B J Cooper 302 30 9.9% −108.46

Mr M N Doran 215 24 11.2% −45.42

Sean Flanagan 189 24 12.7% −22.87

Davy Russell 173 31 17.9% −14.97

Richard Deegan 170 9 5.3% −111.34

M P Fogarty 158 18 11.4% −21.92

Mr B O'Neill 148 12 8.1% −46.62

Robbie Power 112 14 12.5% +43.50

Jordan Gainford 93 12 12.9% +20.58

Conor Stone-Walsh 88 3 3.4% −73.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

503

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£9.53m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 42 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Cuan Na Grai (IRE) — Guinness Galway Hurdle Handicap Galway (IRE) · Aug 2006 · Grade A

£121,300

Joncol (IRE) — Hennessy Gold Cup (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2010 · Grade 1

£103,500

Latest Exhibition (IRE) — Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors '50,000 Cheltenham Bonus For Stable Staff' Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) Leopardstown · Feb 2020 · Grade 1

£88,500

Notable horses

Moskova (IRE) Noble Prince (GER) Cuan Na Grai (IRE) Solita (IRE) Arklow Ger (IRE) Joncol (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

King's Theatre (IRE) 11.4% · 24–211

Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.

Flemensfirth (USA) 12% · 22–183

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,287 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Walk In The Park (IRE) 13.6% · 19–140

Progeny have won 13.4% of 7,030 runs since 2011 (704 horses).

Milan (GB) 6.5% · 9–139

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,871 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).

Presenting (GB) 11% · 15–136

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Oscar (IRE) 10.9% · 14–129

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,555 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,555 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Ants Fantasy (IRE)J: Ross Berry Thank You To All Our Sponsors & Supporters In 2026 (c & G) (pro/am) Flat Race17f · Yielding · 7 ran 6th 25/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Tackletommywoowoo (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan racingtv.com/freetrial Beginners Chase15.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 9th 18/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) The Big Clubman (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe racingtv.com/freetrial Beginners Chase15.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 1st 11/8F

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Sandor Clegane (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Michael Hickey Memorial Chase (listed)23f · Yielding · 4 ran 3rd 9/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Mcallister (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Start Your Free Trial On Racing Tv Now Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 9th 2/1F

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Thranduil (IRE)J: Ross Berry Start Your Free Trial On Racing Tv Now Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 10th 100/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Walking Saint (GB)J: Eoin Staples Start Your Free Trial On Racing Tv Now Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 1st 100/30

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Old Saxony (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Botanica International Rated Novice Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 8 ran 7th 22/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) An Peann Dearg (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Botanica International Rated Novice Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 8 ran 1st 18/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Rossie GirlJ: Ross Berry Racing Tv Free Trial For A Month Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 13th 33/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Midnight Reign (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Racing Tv Free Trial For A Month Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 7th 50/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Mrs Wright (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Racing Tv Free Trial For A Month Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 28/1

04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) East Wall (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Racing Tv Free Trial For A Month Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 4th 10/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Felicity Smoak (IRE)J: Ross Berry Christmas Parties At Fairyhouse December 12th Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 10th 22/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Moonlight Paradise (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Christmas Parties At Fairyhouse December 12th Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 6th 18/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Hatfield Hammer (IRE)J: Ross Berry William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 11th 12/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Sageborough (FR)J: Sean O'Keeffe Group Discounts For Winter Festival General Admission Rated Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 5 ran 2nd 100/30

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Raging Raptor (IRE)J: Conor Stone-Walsh Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 13th 25/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Sazerac Dance (IRE)J: Jordan Gainford Winter Festival 28th & 29th November 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran PU 66/1

03 Nov 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Factor Five (USA)J: Eoin Staples Winter Festival 28th & 29th November 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 12th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 1) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul Nolan's strike rate?: Paul Nolan has won 386 of 4,290 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Nolan do best at?: Wexford by strike rate: 21 wins from 129 runners (16.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Nolan?: Sean O'Keeffe, with 463 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 47 (10.2%).
Is Paul Nolan in form?: In the last 14 days: 32 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 18.8%. That is above the baseline of 9% since 2008.
What is Paul Nolan's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 4,288 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.