Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.82).
Deterministic profile computed from 476 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 28 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Jul–AugClaiming riders: 4.7%
The read
The record is strongest at Ballinrobe (11.4%, n=35) and Thurles (10%, n=30) — all clear of the yard's 4.4% baseline. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=32, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.46 and −73.00 to a £1 stake over 104 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (9.3%, n=54). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 48 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Aug.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.9%−2.5
n=104 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −73.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.4
n=32 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −32.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −37.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=34 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −34.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5.6%+1.2
n=18 · A/E 1.33 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
21.1%
n=19 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −5.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.7%+0.3
n=233 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −100.87
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
At Ballinrobe11.4% vs 4.4% · n=35
Over 1m2f – 1m4f9.3% vs 4.4% · n=54
At Thurles10% vs 4.4% · n=30
On Good to Soft going0% vs 4.4% · n=48
With debutants0% vs 4.4% · n=37
With Paddy Kennedy8.8% vs 4.4% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle24372.9%−172.25
Flat10576.7%−64.12
Chase10365.8%−13.00
NH Flat2514%+9.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft16995.3%−50.12
Good13753.6%−94.00
Heavy8267.3%−11.75
Good to Soft4800%−48.00
Standard (AW)2913.4%−25.50
Good to Firm1000%−10.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Kilbeggan3812.6%−19.00
Roscommon3625.6%+24.00
Ballinrobe35411.4%+1.88
Galway3326.1%−5.50
Thurles30310%−7.00
Dundalk (AW)2913.4%−25.50
Tramore2913.4%−18.00
Fairyhouse2700%−27.00
Limerick2700%−27.00
Downpatrick2314.3%−14.00
Cork2100%−21.00
Clonmel2100%−21.00
Sligo1915.3%−15.25
Navan1600%−16.00
Gowran Park1616.3%−4.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite30620%1.05−3.62
2nd–3rd fav5036%0.47−34.25
4th–6th fav9755.2%0.78−51.50
7th+ in betting29972.3%0.97−151.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m14032.1%−78.00
2m1f – 2m4f12443.2%−81.00
2m5f – 3m11087.3%−13.25
1m2f – 1m4f5459.3%−32.12
1m – 1m1f2214.5%−10.00
Over 3m1500%−15.00
6f – 7f1100%−11.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081100%−11.00
20091300%−13.00
2010800%−8.00
20112000%−20.00
20123538.6%+32.00
20131900%−19.00
20143825.3%−23.00
20152314.3%−12.00
20165024%−28.00
20173339.1%+0.75
20183113.2%−25.00
201921419%+23.50
20202713.7%−8.00
20213200%−32.00
20224400%−44.00
20233438.8%−23.62
20242214.5%−15.00
20251500%−15.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps270176.3%−96.62
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners179105.6%−79.62
11-13 runners13564.4%−40.50
17+ runners10033%−69.00
8-10 runners4624.3%−35.25
5-7 runners1400%−14.00
2-4 runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 71 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from W McCreery (3) and Adrian Brendan Joyce (2); 34 had their first archived run for this yard.
23 have since run for another yard, most often for Ciaran Murphy (4) and Denis Gerard Hogan (2); 37 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0504327114550
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2007→
21
Archived wins
£245k
Prize money
2019
Best season · 4 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Mysticaltou (IRE) — Ciaran Russell Auto Sales, Downpatrick Mares Handicap Hurdle Downpatrick · May 2017
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,931 runs since 2008 (1,028 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 483 · newest first
The latest 50 of 483 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 September 2007 to 4 November 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Shane Ryder's strike rate?
Shane Ryder has won 21 of 476 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Shane Ryder do best at?
Ballinrobe by strike rate: 4 wins from 35 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Shane Ryder's Fair A/E?
0.82, from 476 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Shane Ryder·SR 4.4%·A/E 0.82
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