3:41 Gowran Park
This 23-runner Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Division I) over 2m4f40y at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground looks a competitive and open affair in which several useful performers line up off marks in the mid to high 90s. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with two horses sharing a 65/100 score, underlining how little separates the principals on current form and conditions. With no obvious front-runner in a steadily-run, tactical race, positioning and timing of the effort are likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay dividends. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, which could lead to a bunching of runners turning for home. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough to capitalise on the absence of pace pressure, or whether the race will be decided by those delivered with a well-timed run from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sea Of Doubt KTB Selection65/100
Sea Of Doubt is a useful performer with solid recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts. He steps up in trip today while making his first appearance at Gowran Park. The yard has a 10% strike rate here from 20 runs but the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and that run-style should suit the expected steadily-run affair. Rated OR 100 and carrying a recent form line of 32U641, he is the KTB Selection.
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2The Monkey Pole65/100
The Monkey Pole is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with three placed efforts from his last five starts. He drops back in trip today having not tried this exact distance before and makes his first appearance at Gowran Park. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate from 39 runs here while he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, he produces his effort late and should be suited by a tactical race. Rated OR 100 with recent form figures of -4P355, he shares top billing on the KTB Fit ratings.
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3Getaway Charlie58/100
Getaway Charlie is a useful performer who showed a bit more when winning over this trip at the fourth attempt. He has run only once here and pulled up, while the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Gowran from a big sample suggests limited encouragement. The jockey has a solid 10% record at the track from ten rides and the horse has placed once from four starts on yielding to soft. Usually held up with high confidence, he produces his effort late and that should fit the shape of a steadily-run race. Rated OR 99 with form figures of 00-401, he remains competitive at this level.
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4Tara Boe58/100
Tara Boe is a fair performer who has struggled since returning from a long absence, finishing well beaten on both starts this year. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at this distance. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Gowran Park, with the yard on 12% and the 5 lb claimer on 17%. Usually races handily though with only limited evidence, he could be seen to better effect if the race lacks early pace. Rated OR 84 with recent form of 49P/80, he has the figures to find improvement.
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5Moorish Castle56/100
Moorish Castle is a useful performer who has shown ability on his better days but has been out of form on his last two completed starts. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried twice without success. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Gowran is offset by the jockey's solid 12% record here from limited rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he produces his effort late and that should align with the tactical nature of the race. Rated OR 97 with form figures of /65FP-, he retains each-way interest on his best days.
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6Larkins Lane55/100
Larkins Lane is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after winning twice this year and finishing a close second last time. He steps up in trip today having already won twice over this distance from six attempts. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate from 395 runs at Gowran while the jockey has no recorded rides here.
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7Laska Du Breuil54/100
Laska Du Breuil is a useful performer who showed a sharp return to form when winning at Fairyhouse last month after a patchy spell. He has not managed a place in two runs at this trip and was well beaten on his only start on yielding to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Gowran on their numerous visits.
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8Ordered Lives52/100
Ordered Lives is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little on his return when eighth of nine at this track last month. He has never won or placed in two runs here or over today's trip, and his sole run on yielding to soft ground also brought no joy. The trainer continues in solid form at Gowran but the jockey's modest strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
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9Duke Otto51/100
Duke Otto is a useful performer who has run four times at Gowran without placing and now steps up in trip having been out of form on his last two starts. The yard's modest 7% strike rate here from a huge sample is another negative while the 7 lb claimer is still seeking a first course winner from only eight rides. Trip is an unknown at this stage.
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10Space Warrior51/100
Space Warrior is a useful performer who has been out of form on his last two starts and now steps up in trip for the first time. He has shown nothing on yielding to soft ground in two previous attempts and the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Gowran Park adds no encouragement. First run here after 24 starts elsewhere makes this a watching brief at best.
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11At The Wings51/100
At The Wings is a fair performer who landed a handicap at the fifth attempt last time and has a solid recent record overall. He steps up in trip today having shown little in two previous tries at this distance, while he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer has a good record here but the jockey's strike rate is modest.
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12No Big Deal50/100
No Big Deal is a useful performer who has been below form on his last few starts and ran no better than mid-division when last seen at this track. He has shown some ability on yielding to soft ground but has never won in 23 starts and his record here reads 0-3. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Gowran Park.
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13Drumconnor Hill50/100
Drumconnor Hill is a useful performer who has struggled to make an impact in recent starts with a string of modest efforts including a pulled-up last time. He drops back in trip today having been tried over further on his most recent outing and the small sample on this ground leaves suitability open to question. The trainer is without a winner from 14 runs at Gowran while the jockey has a solid 11% strike rate here from 53 rides.
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14Rumble Demosa50/100
Rumble Demosa is a useful performer who has been well beaten in both completed starts over hurdles. He steps up in trip today having looked short of stamina last time, which asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest record at Gowran is offset by the jockey's solid strike rate at the track.
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15Tudorista49/100
Tudorista is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip having been placed without winning at this distance, though he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. The jockey has a solid 9% strike rate from 34 rides at Gowran, while the trainer has no prior runners here.
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16Shortt Fuse47/100
Shortt Fuse is a fair performer who has struggled in four starts so far, finishing well beaten on each completed run. The trip looks a fair test on paper having already tried it twice without success, while the yard has a modest record here from 18 runners. The 3 lb claimer has a solid strike rate at Gowran and that is the main positive.
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17Esticky End46/100
Esticky End is a fair performer who has won at today's trip and arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts. He has been well held in three runs at Gowran Park though and the trainer has a poor record here. The jockey has a solid course strike-rate but the horse is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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18Glendaars Secret45/100
Glendaars Secret is a useful performer on the balance of recent form but has only had three starts and remains lightly raced. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing first-time headgear, both of which pose fresh questions. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate here from 79 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 34 rides at Gowran.
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19Mother Ship43/100
Mother Ship is a fair sort who arrives in decent nick after two placed efforts at around this trip. He steps up in distance again today having shown he handles the range without winning, though he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 299 runs at Gowran and the jockey's 7% from 126 rides add little encouragement on his first run here.
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20Flash The Badge43/100
Flash The Badge is a fair performer who has been well held in both starts this season. He steps up in trip for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Gowran from a large sample and the jockey is still seeking a first winner here from 14 rides.
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21Online Order41/100
Online Order is a fair performer on his figures but has been ordinary in four starts so far, finishing no closer than sixth. The step up in trip looks a logical move yet he has already tried this distance once without success. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Gowran Park.
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22Not So Proper36/100
Not So Proper is a fair performer who has struggled since returning from a long absence and looks short of his best at present. He steps up in trip today having shown little at 2m last time. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at Gowran from a big sample but the 7lb claimer has only one ride here so far.
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23Phildante36/100
Phildante is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a win and two placed efforts among his last six starts. He has shown little at Gowran in two previous runs and drops back in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in four attempts at this distance. The trainer holds a solid record at the track while the jockey is less established here and the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
KTB verdict
Sea Of Doubt is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts, he steps up in trip at a track where the yard has shown ability even if the horse himself is unproven on yielding to soft ground. His held-up run-style should suit the steadily-run, tactical affair that is likely to unfold. The main dangers are The Monkey Pole, who shares the same KTB Fit rating and brings consistent placed form, and Getaway Charlie, who won over the trip and has a jockey with a good record at the venue.
KTB Selection Sea Of Doubt
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:24 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Of Doubt | 17/2 | Dragon Bet |
| The Monkey Pole | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Getaway Charlie | 11/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Tara Boe | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Moorish Castle | 50/1 | Bet365 |
| Larkins Lane | 11/2 | BetTom |
| Laska Du Breuil | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Ordered Lives | 66/1 | Bet365 |
| Duke Otto | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Space Warrior | 25/1 | BetTom |
| At The Wings | 13/2 | Dragon Bet |
| No Big Deal | 7/1 | BetTom |
| Drumconnor Hill | 20/1 | BetTom |
| Rumble Demosa | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Tudorista | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Shortt Fuse | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Esticky End | 13/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Glendaars Secret | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Mother Ship | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Flash The Badge | 20/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Online Order | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Not So Proper | 22/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Phildante | 14/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:41 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Sea Of Doubt the selection despite being unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Sea Of Doubt is a useful performer with solid recent form including a win and two placed efforts from his last six starts, and the yard has a 10% strike rate at Gowran from 20 runs.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, as most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late.
Which horse has the best recent form at this trip?
Larkins Lane has already won twice over this distance from six attempts, while Getaway Charlie showed a bit more when winning over this trip at the fourth attempt.
What are the strongest trainer/jockey combinations at Gowran in this field?
The combinations with positive A/E figures include Tara Boe (trainer 1.44, jockey 1.56), Moorish Castle (jockey 1.84), and Getaway Charlie (jockey 1.53).
Which runners are making their first start at Gowran Park?
Sea Of Doubt, The Monkey Pole, Tara Boe, Moorish Castle, Larkins Lane, Laska Du Breuil, Mother Ship, Online Order, Not So Proper, and several others have no course form on record.
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