4:45 Curragh
A 24-runner handicap over a mile at the Curragh on yielding ground looks set to be dominated by the pace shape, with one clear front-runner expected to enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the many hold-up performers to bridge. The KTB Fit scores reflect a generally modest field, headed by Titanium on 62, with the next four principals clustered between 56 and 52. Most runners carry recent modest form and limited course success, while the trainer and jockey strike rates at the Curragh are largely unconvincing across the card.
How the race shapes up
The pace map points to a lone leader scenario with high confidence, as Dark Willow is the only horse likely to take the race to the front. With the vast majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to be held up and producing their efforts late, the leader should be allowed to dictate matters without serious pressure. The key question is whether any of the closers can bridge the expected gap on yielding ground, or whether the uncontested lead will prove decisive in a race where few are equipped to challenge early.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Titanium KTB Selection62/100
Titanium is a modest performer who has won once from eight starts at the Curragh and also has five wins from 21 starts at this trip. His recent form of 065005 shows he is struggling to find his best and he has failed to place in three runs on yielding ground. The trainer records a 5% strike rate from 55 runs here while the 7 lb claimer has limited course experience. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a low draw of two, he has the best KTB Fit rating in the field at 62 and is the selection. The combination of course success and a potential sit-and-sprint scenario could play to his strengths if he can rediscover a spark.
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2Chipsrdown56/100
Chipsrdown is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best form when winning twice over this trip earlier in the season. Dropping back from 1m2f should suit and he has placed on yielding ground, though he was well held on his only previous run at the Curragh. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at this track, with the yard on 7% from 416 runs and the rider on 8% from 373 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives with a KTB Fit of 56 and recent form of 023110 that includes those two victories at the trip. The return to a mile looks a positive, yet his Curragh record remains a concern.
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3Bay Of Dreams55/100
Bay Of Dreams is a modest performer with a mixed record this year and no win since March. He steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having scored three times at the trip earlier in his career, though his only run on yielding ground brought no joy. The trainer has a 5% strike rate from 55 runs at the Curragh while this is the horse's first appearance here. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw seven, he has a KTB Fit of 55 and recent form of 093150. The return to his winning trip offers some hope, but the lack of course experience and previous yielding run count against him.
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4Lady Mary Heath55/100
Lady Mary Heath is a modest performer who has run eight times at the Curragh and managed a couple of placed efforts without winning. She has shown little spark in three starts this year and was well held on her only previous run on yielding ground. The trip looks about right and the trainer's record here offers some encouragement but overall she needs to improve markedly. Usually held up and producing her effort late from draw 15, she holds a KTB Fit of 55 with recent form of -47390. The yard's 10% strike rate from 133 runs at the track and Chris Hayes aboard provide some positives in an otherwise modest profile.
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5Loingseoir52/100
Loingseoir is a modest performer with a solid course record here having won twice from 20 starts. Recent form is patchy but he has placed on yielding ground and the step back up to a mile looks a fair shout given his past success at the trip. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 255 runs at the Curragh. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a wide draw of 21, he has a KTB Fit of 52 with recent form of 438028. The combination of course wins and a placed effort on the ground give him each-way claims if he can overcome his wide stall.
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6Karakula52/100
Karakula is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with form figures of 54-226. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 35 runs at the Curragh while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track. Drops back to 1m today having last run over 1m3f and is unproven on yielding ground.
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7No More Porter51/100
No More Porter is a modest performer who has won once in 22 starts at the Curragh but is now 0 from 21 since that success. He has been consistent enough in recent months yet remains winless in 2024 and shows no form on yielding ground from a small sample. Dropping back to a trip where he has placed but never won adds another question from stall 17.
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8God Knows48/100
God Knows is a limited performer who has run eight times at the Curragh and managed to place on three occasions without winning. Drops back to 1m having last run over 1m2f and holds a win at today's trip from nine attempts. The trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate from 19 runs at the track while the jockey has no established record here.
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9La Tulipe Noire48/100
La Tulipe Noire is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and arrives with a string of modest efforts. She has placed once from four starts at this track and holds a win on yielding ground from five attempts, though the step back up to a mile poses a fresh question having last run over 7f. The trainer remains without a Curragh winner from nine attempts.
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10Pallatine Hills48/100
Pallatine Hills is a modest performer who has shown some ability at this track, finishing placed on two of five runs here. Drops back sharply in trip from 1m7f to 1m where he is 0-9 but has been placed once, while his only run on yielding ground brought no joy. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 146 runs at the Curragh.
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11Marta's Prince48/100
Marta's Prince is a modest performer who has shown little in recent starts and finished a remote 13th on his only previous visit to the Curragh. He drops back to 1m having been placed once at the trip earlier in his career, though the small overall sample makes it hard to be certain how the yielding ground will suit. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
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12Templenoe48/100
Templenoe is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this season and now steps up in trip from 7f. Has twice run respectably without threatening over this course and distance, though the wide draw in stall 22 adds another negative. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here on a track where they have had plenty of chances.
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13Killyclogher Rose47/100
Killyclogher Rose is a modest performer who has been in and out this year with a win at Navan in June but has failed to build on it since. Dropping back to 1m poses a fresh question having last run over 1m2½f. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the Curragh from a big sample is a negative while the wide draw in stall 18 adds to the difficulties.
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14Jasmine Affanalis45/100
Jasmine Affanalis is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed her best when winning a handicap at this trip on yielding ground last time. She has solid placed form on this surface but the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate at Curragh from a big sample is a clear negative. First run here adds an unknown element.
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15Nibras Rainbow44/100
Nibras Rainbow is a modest performer who has been placed a few times at this track but is still winless after five runs here. Drops back to his winning trip today though his recent form has been patchy and he is 0-2 on yielding ground. The trainer's poor 3% strike-rate at Curragh adds another negative.
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16Mythical Rock44/100
Mythical Rock is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. Has placed at this trip and shown some ability on yielding ground but his two efforts here read poorly and the trainer's modest strike-rate at Curragh adds little confidence.
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17Roaming Coyote44/100
Roaming Coyote is a modest performer with a string of placed efforts but no win in seven starts. He finished 11th on his only visit to the Curragh and has been beaten all three starts at this trip. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track is a concern even with Colin Keane in the saddle.
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18Bang Po43/100
Bang Po is a limited horse who has been out of form for most of this year and ran poorly in three previous attempts at the Curragh. He steps up to a trip he has won over before and has placed twice from six runs on yielding ground, so the conditions are not against him. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds little confidence.
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19Morse42/100
Morse is a modest performer who has been well beaten on all five starts at this track and arrives in ordinary form. Drops back to his winning trip today but showed little spark over slightly further last time and the yard is struggling at Curragh. Ground should be fine on the basis of one run.
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20Zipster42/100
Zipster is a modest performer who has been consistent in recent months with three straight placed efforts but looks stretched from stall 20 here. Has won at this trip yet his two runs at the Curragh have produced no impact and he showed nothing on his only previous start on yielding ground. The trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at the track adds little confidence.
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21Vlhova41/100
Vlhova is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time and finished no better than 11th in her only run at the Curragh. Drops back to 1m having won at the trip earlier in her career though she showed nothing on yielding ground in three previous attempts. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
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22Tariff41/100
Tariff is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on his day, including a recent win. He handles yielding ground, having won once and placed once from two runs on it, and has also scored at this trip. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Curragh while this is the horse's first run here.
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23Orphanina39/100
Orphanina has shown very little in five runs to date and sits right at the bottom of the ratings for a limited performer. She steps up to 1m for the first time today having failed to make an impact at that trip on her two previous attempts, while first-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at the Curragh.
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24Dark Willow30/100
Dark Willow is a limited performer who has been well beaten in all seven runs at this track and shows no wins or places from 15 starts this year. The trainer is without a winner from 13 runs here and the horse has only one run on yielding ground. Steps up in trip today having been placed once at a mile without winning and is the lone leader in the pace shape.
KTB verdict
Titanium emerges as the KTB Selection at the head of a modest 24-runner field where the pace shape strongly favours the uncontested leader. His course win from eight starts at the Curragh and five victories at the trip provide the strongest foundation among the principals, even if recent form has been patchy and yielding ground remains a slight question. The selection can be ridden for a late burst from a favourable low draw, and the lack of early pressure should allow him to conserve energy. Main dangers include Chipsrdown, who drops back to a winning trip with a placing on the ground, and Loingseoir, who boasts two course wins and has handled yielding conditions before. Lady Mary Heath and Bay Of Dreams add further depth but both need to improve on recent efforts.
KTB Selection Titanium
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Curragh racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
How many previous Curragh winners are in the field?
Titanium, Loingseoir and No More Porter have all won at the Curragh before.
Which horse is expected to make the running?
Dark Willow is the lone leader according to the pace shape with high confidence.
Which runners have previous winning form on yielding ground?
Loingseoir has a win from 10 runs on yielding, Jasmine Affanalis has a win from two, La Tulipe Noire has a win from five, Tariff has a win from two and several others have placed efforts on the surface.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at the Curragh in this race?
God Knows's trainer has an 11% strike rate from 19 runs, Lady Mary Heath's trainer has 10% from 133 runs and the trainer-jockey combination for No More Porter shows 10% from 1082 runs.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
All five principals – Titanium, Chipsrdown, Bay Of Dreams, Lady Mary Heath and Loingseoir – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
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