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Trainer profile

A Kinsella

284 runners in the lifetime window · 40 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2023 92% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
18–284
Wins / Runs
6.3%
Strike rate
n=284
57 (20%)
Placed
1.08
Fair A/E
n=281 · 0.81 incl. margin
−103.67
£1 level stake
n=284 at SP · −36.5%
£340k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.08).

Deterministic profile computed from 284 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug
The read

The yard also reads well over 1m2f – 1m4f (19.4%, n=36) and on Heavy going (10%, n=50). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 1.4% over 72 runners, 4.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.35 across 53 runners (1.9% strike, −49.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the St Jovite Renaissance Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2008, £48,750). Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.9%−2.4
n=51 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −32.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.3
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+3.7
n=10 · A/E 3.69 · £1 +7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
41.7%
n=12 · A/E 2.05 · £1 +8.83
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.1%−0.2
n=99 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −26.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5%−1.3
n=20 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 19.4% vs 6.3% · n=36
With Valdir De Souza 0% vs 6.3% · n=39
With Shane Foley 12.2% vs 6.3% · n=41
Over 1m – 1m1f 1.4% vs 6.3% · n=72
On Good going 1.9% vs 6.3% · n=53
On Heavy going 10% vs 6.3% · n=50
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 261 17 6.5% −106.67
Hurdle 23 1 4.3% +3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 98 6 6.1% −24.50
Good 53 1 1.9% −49.50
Heavy 50 5 10% −8.17
Standard (AW) 36 1 2.8% −25.00
Good to Firm 28 2 7.1% +2.00
Good to Soft 17 3 17.6% +3.50
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Curragh 47 3 6.4% −8.00
Dundalk (AW) 35 1 2.9% −24.00
Gowran Park 26 2 7.7% +9.00
Navan 23 0 0% −23.00
Leopardstown 22 2 9.1% −10.67
Fairyhouse 20 0 0% −20.00
Naas 19 4 21.1% +9.00
Tipperary 17 1 5.9% +0.00
Cork 15 2 13.3% −2.50
Galway 11 1 9.1% −3.00
Killarney 9 1 11.1% −5.50
Limerick 8 0 0% −8.00
Sligo 5 0 0% −5.00
Ballinrobe 3 0 0% −3.00
Listowel 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 20 1 5% −3.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 14 5 35.7% 1.74 +6.83
2nd–3rd fav 40 4 10% 0.96 −11.50
4th–6th fav 68 4 5.9% 0.87 −23.00
7th+ in betting 162 5 3.1% 0.99 −76.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Mi Esperanza (IRE) 32 2 11 21 Apr 22
Andre Mon Ami (USA)from D Smaga · then D E Prendergast 22 4 7 31 Jan 10
Azaboy (IRE) 20 1 3 6 Jul 11
Impossible Dream (IRE) 17 2 6 18 Aug 09
Gunga Din (IRE) 14 2 5 30 Aug 09
Tenacious Greg (IRE)from D K Weld 13 0 1 31 Dec 08
Hallie's Comet (IRE)then D K Weld 12 1 6 23 Oct 09
Evening Rushour (IRE)from Brian Nolan · then James Bernard McCabe 12 3 5 27 Sep 09
Soineanta (IRE)from J S Bolger · then Barry J Fitzgerald 11 0 2 24 Jul 21
Annie Mae Mucho (IRE) 11 0 1 12 Aug 09
Bartres (IRE) 11 0 1 3 Jul 09
Max Almighty (GB)from D K Weld 9 2 3 14 Mar 10
All 40 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 40 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Brian Nolan (2) and D K Weld (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for D K Weld (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
005548787900
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderShane Foley
14% of all rides
12.2% SR · A/E 1.92
RiderRWSR£1
Shane Foley 41 5 12.2% +6.50
Valdir De Souza 39 0 0% −39.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
23
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£433k
Prize money
2008
Best season · 10 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Rock Of Rochelle (USA) — St Jovite Renaissance Stakes (group 3) Curragh · Sep 2008 · Group 3
£48,750
Rock Of Rochelle (USA) — Rosaleen Kelly Blenheim Stakes () Curragh (IRE) · Sep 2007 · Listed
£35,805
Impossible Dream (IRE) — womenmeanbusiness.com Handicap (60-100) Leopardstown · Aug 2008
£16,275
Notable horses
Andre Mon Ami (USA) Impossible Dream (IRE) Max Almighty (GB) Rock Of Rochelle (USA) Evening Rushour (IRE) Mi Esperanza (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dandy Man (IRE) 6.3% · 2–32
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,968 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.
Peintre Celebre (USA) 18.2% · 4–22
Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,836 runs since 2008 (311 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.3% from 734. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.2% from 291.
Lend A Hand (GB) 5% · 1–20
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,088 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.5% from 130. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.3% from 188.
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,566 runs since 2008 (872 horses).
Indian Danehill (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,742 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.9% from 143.
One Cool Cat (USA) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,592 runs since 2008 (254 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.4% from 605.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 334 · newest first

The latest 50 of 334 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 June 2005 to 21 May 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 May 23 Naas Lolyta (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Twydil/Clovelly Irish EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Good · 16 ran 16th 150/1
08 Apr 23 Cork Lolyta (IRE)J: Gavin Ryan Welcome To The Racing Home For Easter Festival 2023 Fillies Maiden7f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 12th 40/1
25 Mar 23 Curragh Lolyta (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Cavalor Equine Nutrition Fillies Maiden7f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran 7th 100/1
01 Oct 22 Gowran Park Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly gowranpark.ie 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 15th 18/1
09 Sep 22 Ballinrobe Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Breaffy House Resort 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle17.5f · Good · 12 ran 6th 50/1
19 Aug 22 Killarney Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Kevin Sexton Irish Examiner 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 13 ran 6th 50/1
06 Jul 22 Fairyhouse Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7f · Good · 18 ran 12th 66/1
10 Jun 22 Fairyhouse Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Luke McAteer Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden12f · Good · 10 ran 7th 150/1
13 May 22 Leopardstown Mi Sueno (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden8f · Good · 11 ran 8th 66/1
21 Apr 22 Tipperary Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Shane Foley TipperaryRacecourse.ie Handicap5f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 14/1
26 Mar 22 Curragh Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Shane Foley Dmg Media Handicap5f · Yielding · 11 ran 8th 8/1
31 Oct 21 Naas Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Scott McCullagh Kessaar Handicap5f · Heavy · 13 ran 4th 10/1
20 Oct 21 Navan Only Jack (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Blackcastle Handicap (50-85)5f · Yielding · 13 ran 5th 100/1
20 Oct 21 Navan Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Shane Foley Blackcastle Handicap (50-85)5f · Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 12/1
10 Oct 21 Curragh Only Jack (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Sentinel Ireland Handicap (45-75)6f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 19th 66/1
10 Oct 21 Curragh Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Shane Foley Duralock Racecourse Fencing Handicap5f · Yielding To Soft · 12 ran 3rd 14/1
28 Sep 21 Cork Only Jack (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Mallow Handicap (45-65) (Div 1)6f · Yielding · 14 ran 9th 14/1
26 Sep 21 Curragh Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Paddy Harnett William Hill Ireland Joe McGrath Handicap (Premier Handicap)5f · Good · 15 ran 8th 40/1
04 Sep 21 Navan Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Troytown Bar Handicap5f · Good · 8 ran 7th 10/1
26 Aug 21 Tipperary Mi Esperanza (IRE)J: Andrew Slattery Abergwaun Stakes (Listed)5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 6th 125/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is A Kinsella's strike rate?
A Kinsella has won 18 of 284 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does A Kinsella do best at?
Curragh by strike rate: 3 wins from 47 runners (6.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is A Kinsella's Fair A/E?
1.08, from 281 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).