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Trainer profile

Aidan Melia

109 runners in the lifetime window · 30 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 2 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–109
Wins / Runs
11%
Strike rate
n=109
27 (25%)
Placed
1.59
Fair A/E
n=109 · 1.23 incl. margin
+14.75
£1 level stake
n=109 at SP · +13.5%
£142k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.59). With a claiming rider up the record reads 20% (46 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 109 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 19.6%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 19.6% (n=46, Fair A/E 2.04). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 7.9% over 38 runners, 3.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Timurshah (IRE) — 5 wins from 5 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
7.1%−3.9
n=28 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+1.5
n=24 · A/E 2.47 · £1 +41.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
33.3%+22.3
n=6 · A/E 3.89 · £1 +6.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.0
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
20%
n=10 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −3.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
19.6%+8.6
n=46 · A/E 2.04 · £1 +37.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.0
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up 19.6% vs 11% · n=46
In Flat races 8.3% vs 11% · n=84
On Soft going 7.9% vs 11% · n=38
With a new jockey booking 10.4% vs 11% · n=67 · A/E 1.76
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 10% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 84 7 8.3% −10.00
Hurdle 19 5 26.3% +30.75
NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 38 3 7.9% +14.00
Good 26 7 26.9% +33.75
Standard (AW) 19 0 0% −19.00
Heavy 15 2 13.3% −3.00
Good to Soft 9 0 0% −9.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 19 0 0% −19.00
Curragh 12 1 8.3% +17.00
Gowran Park 11 0 0% −11.00
Navan 8 2 25% +2.00
Leopardstown 7 1 14.3% +1.00
Cork 7 0 0% −7.00
Roscommon 4 0 0% −4.00
Galway 4 2 50% +13.50
Ballinrobe 4 0 0% −4.00
Naas 4 0 0% −4.00
Bellewstown 4 2 50% +16.00
Kilbeggan 3 0 0% −3.00
Punchestown 3 0 0% −3.00
Listowel 3 1 33.3% +4.00
Down Royal 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 11 2 18.2% 1.00 −4.25
2nd–3rd fav 14 4 28.6% 2.03 +10.00
4th–6th fav 25 2 8% 1.01 −10.00
7th+ in betting 59 4 6.8% 2.50 +19.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Unauthorized (IRE)from Alice Haynes 11 2 3 18 Oct 26
Hieloray (IRE)from Peter Niven 9 0 1 20 Oct 25
Big Bill (FR) 8 1 2 12 Oct 26
Isabella Johnson (IRE) 8 0 4 12 Jun 26
Satono Chevalier (IRE)from Richard John O'Brien · then M K Flannery 6 1 4 30 Mar 26
Eyetrap (GB)from R P Burns 5 0 0 28 Sep 26
Timurshah (IRE)from Philip M Byrne 5 5 5 2 Sep 26
Purring Along (IRE)from Thomas Dowling · then P G Fahey 5 1 1 6 Dec 24
The Blue Panther (IRE)from R P Burns 4 0 2 6 Nov 26
Wolf Prince (IRE)from Fergal O'Brien 4 1 1 21 Jul 26
Bottler'secret (IRE)from Gavin Cromwell · then Ciaran Murphy 4 0 1 2 Nov 25
Man Of Destiny (IRE) 4 0 0 1 Jul 25
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 24 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Denis Gerard Hogan (3) and Gavin Cromwell (3); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard, most often for Ciaran Murphy (2) and M K Flannery (2); 22 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
003301029182071500
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Rory Cleary 28 1 3.6% −20.00
Reese Holohan 15 3 20% +4.00
Conor Smithers 8 5 62.5% +41.75
Nicola Burns 7 1 14.3% +8.00
Kevin Sexton 5 0 0% −5.00
Nathan Crosse 5 0 0% −5.00
Dylan Browne McMonagle 4 0 0% −4.00
Mr J L Gleeson 4 0 0% −4.00
Leigh Roche 3 0 0% −3.00
Danny Gilligan 3 0 0% −3.00
Julian Pietropaolo 2 0 0% −2.00
Jimmy Dalton 2 0 0% −2.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→
12
Archived wins
£142k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 9 wins
Unauthorized (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF (C & G) Maiden Leopardstown · Oct 2025
£11,800
Purring Along (IRE) — Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Handicap (47-65) Curragh · Oct 2024
£11,800
Timurshah (IRE) — Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle Galway (IRE) · Aug 2026
£10,500
Notable horses
Timurshah (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE) Big Bill (FR) Satono Chevalier (IRE) Purring Along (IRE) Wolf Prince (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Starspangledbanner (AUS) 18.2% · 2–11
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,225 runs since 2014 (664 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.6% from 1,199.
Phoenix Of Spain (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 13.2% of 1,353 runs since 2023 (140 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.6% from 135. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 19.2% from 104.
Rajj (IRE) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 6.9% of 465 runs since 2015 (46 horses).
Wooded (IRE) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 7.5% of 523 runs since 2024 (116 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,871 runs since 2008 (1,574 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 844.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) 100% · 5–5
Progeny have won 10.6% of 11,643 runs since 2013 (842 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.7% from 329.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 109 · newest first

The latest 50 of 109 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 July 2024 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton BAR 1 Betting Bet Builder Boost Handicap8f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 14/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Jimmy Dalton Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 6th 13/2
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Conor Cusack Nord Anglia International School Dublin Foxrock Cup Handicap8.5f · Good · 16 ran 12th 22/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan DNG Nationwide Handicap6f · Soft · 13 ran 13th 18/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Reese Holohan Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div II)7.5f · Soft · 13 ran 2nd 7/2F
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Naas Farm Machinery Handicap5f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 13/2
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) Covert Legend (GB)J: Reese Holohan BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div II)8.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 7th 15/2
08 Oct 26 Thurles (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Reese Holohan BOYLE Sports Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 9/2C
05 Oct 26 Killarney (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Reese Holohan Killarney Student Raceday Handicap8f · Soft · 15 ran 6th 4/1F
04 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Coolmore Sioux Nation Concorde Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 7f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 22/1
01 Oct 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Reese Holohan Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 1st 4/1
30 Sep 26 Bellewstown (IRE) The Blue Panther (IRE)J: Reese Holohan BOYLE Sports Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 2nd 9/1
28 Sep 26 Down Royal (IRE) Big Bill (FR)J: Patrick McGettigan Pravha Handicap (Div II)11f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 5th 18/1
28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Eyetrap (GB)J: Conor Smithers Gary's Gardening Services Handicap Hurdle15.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran F 6/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Unauthorized (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Kwiff More Bang For Your Bet Rated Race7f · Yielding · 9 ran 2nd 14/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Cerberus (GB)J: Conor Smithers Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 10th 15/2
21 Sep 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Covert Legend (GB)J: Jamie Powell La Bucca Restaurant Handicap7f · Good · 18 ran 14th 25/1
02 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Timurshah (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Kilberry (Q.R.) Handicap16f · Good · 16 ran 1st 2/1F
02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Timurshah (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 17 ran 1st 7/2
27 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Timurshah (IRE)J: Conor Smithers EASYFIX Iggy Daly Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 20 ran 1st 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 18 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Aidan Melia's strike rate?
Aidan Melia has won 12 of 109 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Aidan Melia in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Aidan Melia's Fair A/E?
1.59, from 109 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).