What is Bryan Smart's strike rate?

Bryan Smart has won 587 of 5,436 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Bryan Smart do best at?

Musselburgh by strike rate: 54 wins from 301 runners (17.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Bryan Smart?

Tom Eaves, with 1,624 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 171 (10.5%).

Is Bryan Smart in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Bryan Smart's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 5,405 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Bryan Smart

5,436 runners in the lifetime window · 508 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Runners today 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

587–5,436

Wins / Runs

10.8%

Strike rate

n=5,436

1,675 (31%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=5,405 · 0.87 incl. margin

−982.96

£1 level stake

n=5,436 at SP · −18.1%

£6.02m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 290 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 13% (207 runs, true-first definition).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,436 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Apr 34% when favourite Tom Eaves: 10.5% from 1,624 Claiming riders: 11.1% Sends off the favourite in 9% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Musselburgh (17.9%, n=301), clear of the yard's 10.8% baseline. It is weakest at Newmarket (0% over 33 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 5.8% (n=52, Fair A/E 0.72). A horse in first-time headgear are the standout value angle: 12.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.53 and +95.38 to a £1 stake over 207 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Tom Eaves rides 30% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (10.5%, A/E 0.95). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.8%, n=197). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 3.6% over 140 runners, 7.2pts below the baseline. 30 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York (Aug 2018, £198,485). The stable star of the record: Tangerine Trees (GB) — 14 wins from 64 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.7%−2.1

n=935 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −227.48

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.8%−5.0

n=52 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −21.09

Debutants · first career start

7.1%−3.7

n=422 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −117.87

First-time headgear · true-first definition

12.6%+1.8

n=207 · A/E 1.53 · £1 +95.38

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5.9%−4.9

n=51 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −3.00

When favourite

34%

n=473 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −13.43

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

11.1%+0.3

n=893 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −94.52

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.3%−4.5

n=288 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −59.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Musselburgh 17.9% vs 10.8% · n=301

At Newmarket 0% vs 10.8% · n=33

Off a 0-7-day break 17.8% vs 10.8% · n=197

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 3.6% vs 10.8% · n=140

With Justin Newman 17.1% vs 10.8% · n=111

With Greg Fairley 19.4% vs 10.8% · n=31

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,617 203 12.6% −256.73

Good to Firm 1,303 133 10.2% −383.51

Good 1,227 135 11% −26.59

Good to Soft 678 58 8.6% −173.38

Soft 482 46 9.5% −82.28

Heavy 103 11 10.7% −37.35

Firm 26 1 3.8% −23.12

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 562 76 13.5% −36.64

Newcastle (AW) 539 64 11.9% −32.08

Redcar 421 42 10% −69.06

Wolverhampton (AW) 396 49 12.4% −124.87

Beverley 381 38 10% −81.09

Musselburgh 301 54 17.9% +11.70

Thirsk 292 25 8.6% +3.88

Doncaster 268 17 6.3% −123.29

Hamilton 248 36 14.5% +14.33

Catterick 244 26 10.7% −48.17

Carlisle 217 24 11.1% −6.42

York 191 10 5.2% −52.50

Ripon 177 15 8.5% −45.42

Haydock 159 15 9.4% −69.26

Pontefract 153 11 7.2% −56.55

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 2,023 226 11.2% −520.43

Class 6 1,351 156 11.5% +20.89

Class 4 999 117 11.7% −184.66

Class 3 414 43 10.4% −90.71

Class 2 341 25 7.3% −136.80

Class 1 288 18 6.3% −59.25

Class 7 20 2 10% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 593 191 32.2% 1.14 −5.65

2nd–3rd fav 1,241 192 15.5% 0.99 −205.81

4th–6th fav 1,845 147 8% 0.98 −391.50

7th+ in betting 1,757 57 3.2% 0.86 −380.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 2,810 308 11% −316.61

Under 6f 1,842 216 11.7% −331.22

1m – 1m1f 601 55 9.2% −215.42

1m2f – 1m4f 140 5 3.6% −94.71

1m5f – 2m 37 2 5.4% −24.00

2m1f – 2m4f 6 1 16.7% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 462 57 12.3% −85.96

2009 485 51 10.5% −156.89

2010 457 62 13.6% −28.74

2011 494 70 14.2% +49.87

2012 383 36 9.4% −103.36

2013 327 31 9.5% −120.49

2014 273 27 9.9% −20.46

2015 251 29 11.6% −43.87

2016 241 28 11.6% −17.57

2017 279 17 6.1% −122.55

2018 257 24 9.3% −34.87

2019 195 17 8.7% −90.90

2020 181 19 10.5% +4.21

2021 248 29 11.7% +16.79

2022 214 18 8.4% −93.79

2023 174 16 9.2% +5.53

2024 177 20 11.3% −32.15

2025 183 18 9.8% −60.34

2026 155 18 11.6% −47.42

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 3,520 368 10.5% −651.53

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 1,841 231 12.5% −72.44

11-13 runners 1,670 134 8% −503.02

5-7 runners 891 148 16.6% −218.01

14-16 runners 640 41 6.4% −173.00

17+ runners 310 17 5.5% +7.50

2-4 runners 84 16 19% −23.99

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Smalljohn (GB)from Declan Carroll 72 12 23 9 May 16

Red Pike (IRE) 66 7 23 20 Feb 21

Tangerine Trees (GB)then Michael Appleby 64 14 26 9 Oct 15

Castan (GB) 59 9 25 16 Oct 26

Kentuckyconnection (USA) 58 6 13 24 May 22

Mythmaker (GB) 56 8 25 28 Aug 21

Compton River (GB) 55 3 21 2 Jan 19

Blazing Son (GB) 51 8 25 2 Oct 26

Dubai Hills (GB)then David O'Meara 51 9 20 28 Dec 13

Verinco (GB) 51 6 21 6 Nov 13

Secret Guest (GB) 49 5 18 12 Oct 26

Straightothepoint (GB) 49 3 22 30 Nov 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 508 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 23 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Declan Carroll (2); 54 had their first archived run for this yard.

10 have since run for another yard, most often for David O'Meara (2); 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 6

Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

161814131091111910712

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderTom Eaves

30% of all rides
10.5% SR · A/E 0.95

RiderRWSR£1

Tom Eaves 1,624 171 10.5% −477.63

Graham Lee 779 80 10.3% −71.77

Paul Mulrennan 500 73 14.6% +21.55

Royston Ffrench 288 21 7.3% −50.54

Connor Beasley 274 24 8.8% −65.25

Harrison Shaw 188 17 9% −14.75

Adam Carter 179 24 13.4% +20.25

Andrew Breslin 167 13 7.8% −27.25

Harry Russell 126 8 6.3% −24.00

Justin Newman 111 19 17.1% +6.54

Richard Mullen 87 13 14.9% +1.03

Gianluca Sanna 86 11 12.8% −2.05

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

694

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£7.37m

Prize money

2011

Best season · 70 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Alpha Delphini (GB) — Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) York · Aug 2018 · Group 1

£198,485

Tangerine Trees (GB) — Qatar Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (2yo+) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2011 · Group 1

£147,776

Misu Bond (IRE) — totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) Redcar · Oct 2005 · Listed

£111,360

Notable horses

Tangerine Trees (GB) Smalljohn (GB) Castan (GB) Dubai Hills (GB) Mythmaker (GB) Blazing Son (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Exceed and Excel (AUS) 14.8% · 34–229

Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,025 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 6.9% · 15–216

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,979 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Kyllachy (GB) 11.2% · 20–178

Progeny have won 9.9% of 13,847 runs since 2008 (800 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 468.

Captain Gerrard (IRE) 13.4% · 21–157

Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,052 runs since 2008 (175 horses).

Bahamian Bounty (GB) 14.8% · 20–135

Progeny have won 9.6% of 9,353 runs since 2008 (598 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 1% from 202.

Kheleyf (USA) 11.9% · 15–126

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,542 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 6,509 · newest first

The latest 50 of 6,509 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 20 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

20 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Sole Spirit (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan All-Weather Championships Is Back Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 8/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Espresso Breeze (GB)J: Oisin McSweeney Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 150/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar March Ahead (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 14th 40/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Castan (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 11/2

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Reenie's Dream (GB)J: Oisin Orr Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 9/2

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Secret Guest (GB)J: Oisin Orr Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 11/2

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Blazing Son (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Pipes Vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 7/2

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Jamaican Storm (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan H. Malone Mechanical & Electrical Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 6 ran 3rd 6/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Surprised (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Armah Switchgear Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 25/1

02 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Espresso Breeze (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Insulation Contractors Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 80/1

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Dc Cogent (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-ready.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 15/8F

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) March Ahead (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 20/1

28 Sep 26 Hamilton Cyberspace (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Moira Stein Memorial Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 2nd 7/4

26 Sep 26 Ripon Sole Spirit (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Michael Raby Memorial Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 7th 12/1

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Reenie's Dream (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Northumbrian Wateraid Sprint Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 9/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Operation Gimcrack (IRE)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Happy Birthday Dave Miller From Probio energy.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 1st 5/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Castan (GB)J: Sean Dylan Bowen Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 12/1

19 Sep 26 Ayr Station X (GB)J: Oisin Orr Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap StakesClass 2 · 6f · Heavy · 23 ran 1st 18/1

16 Sep 26 Beverley Espresso Breeze (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 28/1

15 Sep 26 Redcar Dc Cogent (GB)J: Paul Mulrennan Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Bryan Smart's strike rate?: Bryan Smart has won 587 of 5,436 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Bryan Smart do best at?: Musselburgh by strike rate: 54 wins from 301 runners (17.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Bryan Smart?: Tom Eaves, with 1,624 runners since 2008 — 30% of the total. That pairing has won 171 (10.5%).
Is Bryan Smart in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Bryan Smart's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 5,405 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.