Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 11% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.76). Debutants are a strength: 17% on first career starts (46 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 180 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceNew recruits: 14.5%
The read
It is weakest at Chantilly (FR) (5.3% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants strike at 17.4% (n=46, Fair A/E 0.91). The yard also reads well on Good going (17.1%, n=41) and off a 61-180-day break (15.2%, n=46). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 4.7% over 43 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.1%−1.0
n=89 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −16.60
New recruits · first run for the yard
14.5%+3.4
n=55 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +11.40
Debutants · first career start
17.4%+6.3
n=46 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −1.20
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.1
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.1
n=1 · A/E — · £1 —
When favourite
21.1%
n=19 · A/E 0.56 · £1 −2.30
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.2%−6.9
n=24 · A/E 0.72 · £1 +11.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−11.1
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With debutants17.4% vs 11.1% · n=46
Off a break of 180+ days4.7% vs 11.1% · n=43
On Good going17.1% vs 11.1% · n=41
At Chantilly (FR)5.3% vs 11.1% · n=38
Off a 61-180-day break15.2% vs 11.1% · n=46
Over 1m5f – 2m15.6% vs 11.1% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat1411712.1%−21.70
Hurdle2514%−22.00
Chase14214.3%+5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)7579.3%−3.50
Good41717.1%−4.20
Soft23521.7%+0.30
Good to Soft2000%−18.00
Heavy1815.6%−11.30
Good to Firm300%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)51713.7%+20.50
Chantilly (FR)3825.3%−33.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)20420%+0.30
Saint-Cloud (FR)17211.8%−3.60
Compiegne1317.7%−12.00
Sandown300%−3.00
Nancy300%−2.00
Kempton3133.3%+14.00
Stratford300%−3.00
Longchamp (FR)300%−3.00
Auteuil (FR)300%−3.00
Le Touquet200%—
Ludlow200%−2.00
Fontwell200%−2.00
Ascot200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 11815.6%+2.00
Class 4700%−7.00
Class 2500%−5.00
Class 55120%−3.00
Class 3300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite21419%0.49−4.30
2nd–3rd fav26311.5%0.80−9.80
4th–6th fav4836.3%0.87−10.80
7th+ in betting6423.1%1.02−13.80
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f55610.9%−15.20
1m – 1m1f4237.1%−21.40
1m5f – 2m32515.6%+2.60
2m1f – 2m4f2727.4%−20.70
6f – 7f20420%+20.00
2m5f – 3m300%−3.00
Under 6f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200820630%+5.00
200910330%+4.90
201035617.1%+7.50
20114124.9%−23.50
2013300%−3.00
2014300%−3.00
2015100%−1.00
20169111.1%−4.90
20171100%−11.00
2018300%−3.00
2020500%−5.00
20211616.3%+17.00
2022400%−3.00
20238112.5%−4.70
2024600%−6.00
2025300%−3.00
2026200%−2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps2129.5%−18.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners4648.7%+17.70
8-10 runners3825.3%−23.30
11-13 runners3725.4%−27.30
5-7 runners2514%−5.00
2-4 runners191052.6%+7.00
17+ runners1516.7%−7.80
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 104 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 29 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dan Skelton (2) and Jonjo O'Neill (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.
17 have since run for another yard, most often for Anthony Middleton (3) and Mervyn Torrens (3); 43 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1006061062515311012
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Fiepes Shuffle (GER) — Desert Orchid Chase (Sponsored By Stan James) (Grade 2) Kempton · Dec 2008 · Class 1
£45,608
Earlsalsa (GER) — Prix du Club des Gentleman-Riders (Gentleman Amateurs) Saint-Cloud (FR) · Oct 2009
Progeny have won 9.8% of 5,091 runs since 2015 (314 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 263.
Paolini (GER)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9% of 200 runs since 2009 (35 horses).
Tertullian (USA)0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,007 runs since 2008 (113 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.8% from 251.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 235 · newest first
The latest 50 of 235 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 January 2005 to 30 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is C Von Der Recke's strike rate?
C Von Der Recke has won 20 of 180 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.1% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does C Von Der Recke do best at?
Deauville (FR) by strike rate: 7 wins from 51 runners (13.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is C Von Der Recke's Fair A/E?
0.76, from 153 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
C Von Der Recke·SR 11.1%·A/E 0.76
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