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Trainer profile

J F O'Shea

652 runners in the lifetime window · 122 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2025
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
35–652
Wins / Runs
5.4%
Strike rate
n=652
104 (16%)
Placed
1.12
Fair A/E
n=652 · 0.85 incl. margin
−320.40
£1 level stake
n=652 at SP · −49.1%
£412k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12).

Deterministic profile computed from 652 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 5.8% Sean McDermott: 9.7% from 217 New recruits: 6.5%
The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=82, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2% strike, Fair A/E 0.57 and −242.50 to a £1 stake over 297 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sean McDermott rides 33% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9.7% vs 5.4%, A/E 1.37) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (11.6%, n=69) and in Chase races (11.1%, n=36). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Profile Systems Novice Chase at Punchestown (IRE) (Nov 2007, £30,454). The stable star of the record: Gudnis Gracious Me (IRE) — 6 wins from 45 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.8%+0.4
n=138 · A/E 1.49 · £1 −29.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.5%+1.1
n=31 · A/E 1.61 · £1 −16.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.4
n=82 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −82.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2%−3.4
n=50 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −42.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.3%+0.9
n=16 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −13.62
When favourite
50%
n=20 · A/E 2.01 · £1 +9.48
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2%−3.4
n=297 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −242.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.4
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 13.5% vs 5.4% · n=37
On Good to Firm going 11.6% vs 5.4% · n=69
With debutants 0% vs 5.4% · n=82
With Sean McDermott 9.7% vs 5.4% · n=217
In Chase races 11.1% vs 5.4% · n=36
With claiming riders up 2% vs 5.4% · n=297
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 318 23 7.2% −122.28
Flat 266 8 3% −153.00
Chase 36 4 11.1% −13.12
NH Flat 32 0 0% −32.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 181 8 4.4% −69.00
Good 176 9 5.1% −107.88
Heavy 98 3 3.1% −84.45
Good to Firm 69 8 11.6% +19.18
Standard (AW) 62 3 4.8% −40.00
Good to Soft 57 4 7% −29.25
Firm 9 0 0% −9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 61 3 4.9% −39.00
Gowran Park 54 3 5.6% −33.38
Tramore 44 1 2.3% −41.62
Clonmel 43 4 9.3% +14.88
Killarney 34 0 0% −34.00
Punchestown 32 1 3.1% −30.33
Limerick 32 0 0% −32.00
Cork 31 2 6.5% +23.75
Galway 29 3 10.3% −10.50
Kilbeggan 26 2 7.7% −15.00
Ballinrobe 25 2 8% −8.50
Listowel 25 2 8% −12.00
Roscommon 25 2 8% −11.00
Fairyhouse 23 1 4.3% −13.00
Tipperary 22 1 4.5% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 17 0 0% −17.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 22 10 45.5% 1.85 +7.48
2nd–3rd fav 56 10 17.9% 1.28 +5.62
4th–6th fav 122 10 8.2% 1.30 −26.50
7th+ in betting 452 5 1.1% 0.48 −307.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Gudnis Gracious Me (IRE)then Michael Butler 40 6 20 13 Aug 12
Moonlight Sapphire (GB)from David Wachman · then P J Rothwell 29 3 7 1 Aug 12
Novarov (GER) 20 4 9 3 Aug 13
Leblon (IRE)from David Wachman · then P J Rothwell 19 4 8 31 Jul 12
Lady Sunshine (IRE) 16 0 2 21 Feb 14
Galloping Gander (IRE)from P J Colville · then A J Martin 14 1 5 28 Oct 12
Nicomedia (IRE)from Richard Hannon Snr 14 0 4 10 Oct 09
Cassidys Girl (IRE) 13 0 1 2 Jun 23
Devils Bit (IRE)from David Wachman 13 2 5 27 Jul 12
Zinat (IRE)from M Halford · then Roger Joseph McGrath 12 0 0 19 Dec 18
Charming Hills (IRE)then Shane Joseph Kelly 12 1 3 12 May 09
The Insider (IRE)then Gordon Elliott 11 0 1 6 Jun 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 122 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Wachman (5); 42 had their first archived run for this yard.

24 have since run for another yard, most often for A J Martin (4) and Eoin Doyle (2); 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
40131359635073
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderSean McDermott
33% of all rides
9.7% SR · A/E 1.37
RiderRWSR£1
Sean McDermott 217 21 9.7% −39.90
Shane Gorey 113 3 2.7% −83.00
Benjamin P Kennedy 34 0 0% −34.00
Killian Leonard 32 0 0% −32.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
50
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£585k
Prize money
2009
Best season · 9 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Santa's Son (IRE) — Profile Systems Novice Chase Punchestown (IRE) · Nov 2007 · Grade 3
£30,454
Moonlight Sapphire (GB) — Ghotel.ie & Hotelmeyrick.ie Novice Hurdle Galway · Jul 2009
£14,973
Novarov (GER) — Ucc Su Handicap Hurdle Cork · Mar 2012
£14,625
Notable horses
Gudnis Gracious Me (IRE) Santa's Son (IRE) Novarov (GER) Leblon (IRE) Moonlight Sapphire (GB) Harmani (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Mull Of Kintyre (USA) 13.3% · 6–45
Progeny have won 9% of 2,100 runs since 2008 (160 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.2% from 409. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 306.
High Chaparral (IRE) 10% · 4–40
Progeny have won 10.3% of 8,730 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 419.
Danehill Dancer (IRE) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.
Key Of Luck (USA) 8% · 2–25
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,326 runs since 2008 (171 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 136.
Sholokhov (IRE) 20% · 4–20
Progeny have won 12.5% of 4,268 runs since 2008 (422 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 8.9% from 157.
Dansili (GB) 21.1% · 4–19
Progeny have won 13.7% of 11,842 runs since 2008 (983 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.8% from 101. Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 428. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.1% from 209.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 944 · newest first

The latest 50 of 944 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 8 June 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
08 Jun 25 Punchestown Barney Mcgee (IRE)J: Benjamin P Kennedy Bermingham Cameras Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran PU 200/1
21 Feb 25 Dundalk (AW) Barney Mcgee (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Maiden7f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 150/1
20 Dec 24 Dundalk (AW) Barney Mcgee (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Irishinjuredjockeys.com Maiden8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 150/1
06 Nov 24 Dundalk (AW) Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Bet On The Best Night Out At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (47-65)7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 125/1
18 Oct 24 Dundalk (AW) Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey William Hill Top Price Guarantee Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)7f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 150/1
23 Sep 24 Fairyhouse Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Leigh Roche Treo Eile Handicap (47-75)7f · Good · 11 ran 11th 125/1
21 Sep 24 Gowran Park Melkorka (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Join The Gowran Park Racing Club Handicap (47-65)8f · Good · 14 ran 12th 150/1
11 Sep 24 Cork Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Mallow Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)7f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 16th 80/1
10 Sep 24 Galway Melkorka (IRE)J: Killian Leonard James P. Cunningham Electrical Handicap (47-75)8.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 9th 66/1
26 Jul 24 Cork Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Sign Up To Our Newsletter Maiden6f · Good · 15 ran 11th 150/1
15 Jul 24 Killarney Melkorka (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Ross Castle Handicap (47-65)11.5f · Good · 12 ran 11th 125/1
15 Jul 24 Killarney Prince Stevie (GER)J: Killian Leonard Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden11.5f · Good · 11 ran 11th 125/1
10 Jul 24 Fairyhouse Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7f · Good · 16 ran 13th 150/1
05 Jul 24 Cork Saigon Steel (IRE)J: Mr J C Barry Declan Nerney Plays Live After Racing Flat Race17f · Good · 14 ran 14th 50/1
24 Jun 24 Ballinrobe Prince Stevie (GER)J: Killian Leonard Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden9.5f · Good · 12 ran 12th 250/1
22 Jun 24 Limerick Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Regeneron 'Celebrating 10 Years In The Mid-West' Maiden7f · Good · 15 ran 14th 250/1
17 Jun 24 Gowran Park Prince Stevie (GER)J: Killian Leonard GowranPark.ie Maiden8f · Good · 14 ran 14th 200/1
16 Jun 24 Gowran Park Melkorka (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden9.5f · Good · 16 ran 13th 200/1
07 Jun 24 Fairyhouse Pass The Sugar (IRE)J: Killian Leonard CPAC Modular Maiden7f · Good · 15 ran 15th 150/1
19 May 24 Naas Melkorka (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Twydil/Clovelly Irish EBF Fillies Maiden8f · Good · 11 ran 8th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is J F O'Shea's strike rate?
J F O'Shea has won 35 of 652 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.4% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does J F O'Shea do best at?
Clonmel by strike rate: 4 wins from 43 runners (9.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for J F O'Shea?
Sean McDermott, with 217 runners since 2008 — 33% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (9.7%).
What is J F O'Shea's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 652 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).