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Trainer profile

Kieran Purcell

877 runners in the lifetime window · 149 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 4 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
60–877
Wins / Runs
6.8%
Strike rate
n=877
170 (19%)
Placed
1.18
Fair A/E
n=877 · 0.92 incl. margin
−107.30
£1 level stake
n=877 at SP · −12.2%
£717k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.18). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 10% (30 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 877 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 37.5% when favourite Tom Doyle: 13.6% from 103 Headgear returns: 10% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read

A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 10% (n=30, Fair A/E 2.03), but debutants struggle at 1.6% (n=123, Fair A/E 0.44). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 6.2% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +31.75 to a £1 stake over 371 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Tom Doyle rides 12% of the entries and beats the yard's average (13.6% vs 6.8%, A/E 2.02) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 76 runners, 6.8pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle at Listowel (Sep 2012, £29,250). The stable star of the record: You Can't Catch Me (IRE) — 9 wins from 72 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%−3.9
n=172 · A/E 0.74 · £1 +62.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.8
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Debutants · first career start
1.6%−5.2
n=123 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −43.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
2.8%−4.0
n=72 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −32.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10%+3.2
n=30 · A/E 2.03 · £1 +30.00
When favourite
37.5%
n=32 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −1.05
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.2%−0.6
n=371 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +31.75
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
11.5%+4.7
n=26 · A/E 2.09 · £1 +6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 27.3% vs 6.8% · n=33
On last-time-out winners 22.2% vs 6.8% · n=54
With Tom Doyle 13.6% vs 6.8% · n=103
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 6.8% · n=76
With Mr J E Burns 13.6% vs 6.8% · n=59
With debutants 1.6% vs 6.8% · n=123
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 9.7% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 507 35 6.9% +26.79
Flat 157 9 5.7% −19.38
NH Flat 130 8 6.2% −90.08
Chase 83 8 9.6% −24.63

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 270 19 7% −46.95
Soft 265 16 6% −101.08
Heavy 171 14 8.2% −24.52
Good to Soft 77 2 2.6% +77.50
Good to Firm 76 8 10.5% −2.25
Standard (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00
Firm 8 1 12.5% +0.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Gowran Park 111 10 9% −17.25
Limerick 90 11 12.2% +18.53
Cork 89 3 3.4% −54.12
Clonmel 88 7 8% −3.00
Tramore 72 1 1.4% +79.00
Punchestown 44 1 2.3% −34.00
Tipperary 40 2 5% −24.00
Thurles 39 2 5.1% −20.50
Kilbeggan 37 4 10.8% +29.67
Bellewstown 28 3 10.7% −10.08
Roscommon 27 3 11.1% +29.00
Wexford 26 0 0% −26.00
Downpatrick 22 3 13.6% +4.50
Listowel 19 1 5.3% −7.00
Killarney 18 1 5.6% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 20 1 5% −11.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 40 14 35% 1.34 −0.05
2nd–3rd fav 101 17 16.8% 1.26 +12.25
4th–6th fav 211 16 7.6% 1.20 +1.50
7th+ in betting 525 13 2.5% 0.97 −121.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
84.6% completed · 590 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 83 72.3% 6 2 14 0 1
Hurdle 507 86.6% 9 9 46 1 3
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
You Can't Catch Me (IRE) 72 9 18 27 May 21
Burrenbridge Lodge (IRE)from Patrick Cody 28 5 10 15 Oct 15
Paddy Pub (IRE) 28 6 9 19 Sep 13
Fest Deiz (FR) 27 5 10 17 Jul 22
Oiche Mhaith Boy (IRE) 22 4 11 14 Sep 17
Top Cat Henry (IRE)then Dr Richard Newland 21 1 7 26 Dec 14
Are You The One (IRE)from Patrick Cody 20 1 6 18 Feb 12
Run For Firth (IRE) 18 2 6 17 Jul 16
Ainm Spartacus (IRE)from Patrick Cody · then S J Mahon 18 2 3 29 Oct 12
You Done Well (IRE)then Declan Queally 16 1 2 3 Oct 25
Run Along Boy (GB)then Neil Mulholland 16 1 4 14 Aug 11
Jetango (IRE)then W J Burke 15 0 2 17 Nov 22
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 149 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Patrick Cody (3); 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

29 have since run for another yard, most often for S J Mahon (6) and Mark Michael McNiff (4); 31 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
761371010448565
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderTom Doyle
12% of all rides
13.6% SR · A/E 2.02
RiderRWSR£1
Tom Doyle 103 14 13.6% +93.50
Brian O'Connell 81 6 7.4% −42.09
Donagh Meyler 77 3 3.9% −60.62
Mr J E Burns 59 8 13.6% −4.00
Mr P J Cody 37 2 5.4% +143.00
Cathal Landers 33 2 6.1% −14.00
Mr P Power 32 1 3.1% −17.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
71
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£845k
Prize money
2011
Best season · 11 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Burrenbridge Lodge (IRE) — Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (handicap) (grade C) Listowel · Sep 2012 · Grade C
£29,250
Burrenbridge Lodge (IRE) — Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (grade 2) Fairyhouse · Feb 2012 · Grade 2
£24,375
Paddy Pub (IRE) — Woodlands Park 100 Club Leinster National Handicap Chase (Grade C) Naas · Mar 2012 · Grade C
£19,500
Notable horses
You Can't Catch Me (IRE) Paddy Pub (IRE) Burrenbridge Lodge (IRE) Fest Deiz (FR) Oiche Mhaith Boy (IRE) Rickardstown (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Catcher In The Rye (IRE) 11.6% · 10–86
Progeny have won 8.9% of 2,570 runs since 2008 (239 horses).
Alhaarth (IRE) 10.9% · 5–46
Progeny have won 9.7% of 4,158 runs since 2008 (308 horses).
Dr Massini (IRE) 7.5% · 3–40
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Oscar (IRE) 15.8% · 6–38
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
King's Theatre (IRE) 15.2% · 5–33
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Ivan Denisovich (IRE) 15.6% · 5–32
Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,019 runs since 2010 (71 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 13.5% from 192.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 996 · newest first

The latest 50 of 996 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 February 2005 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) Go Away (GB)J: Paddy Cody Thank You To All Our Sponsors & Supporters In 2026 (c & G) (pro/am) Flat Race17f · Yielding · 7 ran 7th 33/1
04 Nov 26 Wexford (IRE) John Gun (FR)J: Paddy Cody Start Your Free Trial On Racing Tv Now Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 50/1
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Bairdin (IRE)J: Paddy Cody Fitzgerald's Woodlands House Hotel (Pro/Am) Flat Race19f · Good · 7 ran 6th 40/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Charles Kickham (GB)J: Paddy Cody Willis Towers Watson Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 40/1
20 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Go Away (GB)J: Paddy Cody Kinisla Farm & Home Store (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 13 ran 7th 50/1
28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) John Gun (FR)J: Liam McKenna Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 12 ran 5th 66/1
19 Aug 26 Sligo (IRE) Bairdin (IRE)J: Mr P W Gleeson WTW Willis Insurance Brokers Flat Race18.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 50/1
14 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Charles Kickham (GB)J: Mr J C Barry Clem Jacob Hire Flat Race16.5f · Good · 7 ran 5th 25/1
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) John Gun (FR)J: Donagh Meyler McDonald & Son Builders Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 66/1
04 Aug 26 Roscommon (IRE) Charles Kickham (GB)J: Mr J C Barry Brian Keenan On-Course Bookmaker Flat Race15.5f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 6th 40/1
16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Bairdin (IRE)J: Mr D Doyle Matchbook Exchange Flat Race17f · Good · 8 ran 8th 25/1
16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Charles Kickham (GB)J: Mr J C Barry Matchbook Exchange Flat Race17f · Good · 8 ran 4th 18/1
04 May 26 Down Royal Charles Kickham (GB)J: Paddy Cody Energise (Pro/Am) Flat Race17.5f · Good · 12 ran 8th 16/1
23 Oct 25 Clonmel Stonecarthy (IRE)J: Mr D Doyle Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 12 ran 6th 16/1
12 Oct 25 Cork Stonecarthy (IRE)J: Paddy Cody William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (0-100)18.5f · Good · 17 ran 12th 16/1
04 Oct 25 Gowran Park Stonecarthy (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)20f · Yielding · 14 ran PU 8/1
04 Oct 25 Gowran Park Quare Fast (IRE)J: Paddy Cody William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 150/1
03 Oct 25 Gowran Park You Done Well (IRE)J: Paddy Cody Thomastown Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 22/1
12 Sep 25 Ballinrobe Quare Fast (IRE)J: Paddy Cody Burke's Clonbur 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle18f · Soft · 11 ran F 150/1
11 Sep 25 Clonmel You Done Well (IRE)J: Mr D Kiely John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap (Div 2)16.5f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 11/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 4 Nov 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Kieran Purcell's strike rate?
Kieran Purcell has won 60 of 877 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.8% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kieran Purcell do best at?
Limerick by strike rate: 11 wins from 90 runners (12.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Kieran Purcell?
Tom Doyle, with 103 runners since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (13.6%).
Is Kieran Purcell in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Kieran Purcell's Fair A/E?
1.18, from 877 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).