What is M J P O'Brien's strike rate?

M J P O'Brien has won 18 of 225 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does M J P O'Brien do best at?

Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 32 runners (21.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is M J P O'Brien's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 225 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

M J P O'Brien

225 runners in the lifetime window · 48 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Nov 2009

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

18–225

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=225

58 (26%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=225 · 0.66 incl. margin

−89.37

£1 level stake

n=225 at SP · −39.7%

£311k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

4.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 110 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.90).

Deterministic profile computed from 225 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026

The read

The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (21.9%, n=32), clear of the yard's 8% baseline. The yard also read well on Standard (AW) going (21.9%, n=32) and off a 31-60-day break (14.3%, n=35). The record read poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 0% over 41 runners, 8pts below the baseline. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Pierse Hurdle at Leopardstown (Jan 2005, £78,650). The stable star of the record was Forget The Past (GB) — 6 wins from 23 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.3%−1.7

n=63 · A/E 0.64 · £1 −31.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−8.0

n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00

Debutants · first career start

20%+12.0

n=20 · A/E 3.11 · £1 +10.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

27.3%+19.3

n=11 · A/E 6.30 · £1 +24.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.1%+1.1

n=11 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −6.00

When favourite

9.5%

n=21 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −14.62

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

5.2%−2.8

n=77 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −49.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.8%−3.2

n=21 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −18.12

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Dundalk (AW) 21.9% vs 8% · n=32

On Standard (AW) going 21.9% vs 8% · n=32

Over 2m1f – 2m4f 0% vs 8% · n=41

Off a 31-60-day break 14.3% vs 8% · n=35

With A E Lynch 2.3% vs 8% · n=44

With horses switching code 3.8% vs 8% · n=53

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 86 6 7% −51.87

Flat 83 9 10.8% −3.00

NH Flat 37 2 5.4% −20.50

Chase 19 1 5.3% −14.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 85 6 7.1% −39.25

Heavy 41 2 4.9% −33.62

Standard (AW) 32 7 21.9% +28.50

Good 28 2 7.1% −11.50

Good to Soft 23 1 4.3% −17.50

Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 32 7 21.9% +28.50

Punchestown 29 0 0% −29.00

Leopardstown 24 1 4.2% −19.50

Fairyhouse 22 0 0% −22.00

Curragh 17 1 5.9% −2.00

Naas 14 0 0% −14.00

Cork 9 0 0% −9.00

Bellewstown 8 0 0% −8.00

Gowran Park 8 2 25% +4.50

Galway 7 1 14.3% +4.00

Thurles 7 1 14.3% −2.50

Navan 6 0 0% −6.00

Roscommon 6 0 0% −6.00

Tipperary 5 1 20% −1.75

Wexford 5 1 20% +6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 20 1 5% −17.12

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 26 3 11.5% 0.51 −16.37

2nd–3rd fav 43 7 16.3% 1.19 −4.00

4th–6th fav 69 5 7.2% 0.99 −21.00

7th+ in betting 87 3 3.4% 0.97 −48.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Daring Man (IRE)then Denis W Cullen 16 1 6 5 Nov 09

Two Timer (IRE)from David Elsworth 14 1 3 5 Jun 09

Morotai Marauder (IRE)then Denis W Cullen 13 0 1 30 Oct 09

Green Tobasco (GB)then Liam J Clancy 13 2 4 27 May 09

Essex (IRE)then Denis W Cullen 11 0 5 5 Nov 09

Winterdown Star (IRE)then F Oakes 11 1 5 19 Oct 08

Zafar (IRE)from John M Oxx · then Tim Vaughan 9 1 4 4 May 09

Oligarch Society (IRE)then Denis W Cullen 8 3 4 27 Oct 09

Primora De Kerpaul (FR) 8 0 0 5 Jun 09

Beroni (IRE)from P F McEnery · then W P Mullins 8 1 3 30 Apr 09

Little Barney (IRE)then Denis W Cullen 7 0 4 6 Nov 09

French Riviera (GB)from Sir Michael Stoute · then Denis W Cullen 7 0 0 18 Oct 09

All 48 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 48 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive; 37 had their first archived run for this yard.

31 have since run for another yard, most often for Denis W Cullen (14) and F Oakes (2); 17 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

33277060131151050

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderA E Lynch

20% of all rides
2.3% SR · A/E 0.25

RiderRWSR£1

A E Lynch 44 1 2.3% −39.00

Mr D W Cullen 38 3 7.9% −17.00

T G M Ryan 30 3 10% −10.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£2.06m

Prize money

2006

Best season · 30 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Essex (IRE) — Pierse Hurdle Leopardstown · Jan 2005 · Grade B

£78,650

Essex (IRE) — Totesport Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Gr3) Newbury · Feb 2005 · Class 1

£72,500

In Compliance (IRE) — John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase (Grade 1) Punchestown · Dec 2006 · Grade 1

£65,000

Notable horses

Forget The Past (GB) Essex (IRE) In Compliance (IRE) Le Toscan (FR) Doctor Linton (IRE) De Valira (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Grand Lodge (USA) 0% · 0–17

Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,359 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.6% from 250. Weakest on Soft going: 4.4% from 182.

Selkirk (USA) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,371 runs since 2008 (333 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.9% from 228. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.7% from 143.

Talkin Man (CAN) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 5.6% of 324 runs since 2008 (44 horses).

Green Desert (USA) 14.3% · 2–14

Progeny have won 11% of 3,324 runs since 2008 (251 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.8% from 269. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.4% from 147.

Beneficial (GB) 16.7% · 2–12

Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,046 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).

Carrowkeel (IRE) 9.1% · 1–11

Progeny have won 6.3% of 158 runs since 2008 (23 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 748 · newest first

The latest 50 of 748 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 6 November 2009.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

06 Nov 09 Down Royal Little Barney (IRE)J: A E Lynch Allianz Maiden Hurdle22f · Soft · 20 ran 2nd 6/1

05 Nov 09 Leopardstown Daring Man (IRE)J: D C Byrne Heather Road Handicap8f · Heavy · 19 ran 3rd 14/1

05 Nov 09 Thurles Essex (IRE)J: A E Lynch Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Beginners Chase16f · Soft To Heavy · 16 ran 3rd 8/1

05 Nov 09 Leopardstown Total Reality (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. (C & G) Maiden7f · Heavy · 16 ran 6th 3/1

31 Oct 09 Naas Unforgivable (IRE)J: Mr D W Cullen Thoroughbred County (Pro/Am) Flat Race19f · Soft To Heavy · 15 ran 9th 14/1

30 Oct 09 Dundalk (AW) Morotai Marauder (IRE)J: Paul Townend Fairways Race, Stay & Golf Package Handicap (50-70)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 8/1

27 Oct 09 Punchestown Oligarch Society (IRE)J: R Walsh Christmas Parties At Punchestown Beginners Chase20f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran UR 8/1

27 Oct 09 Punchestown Qeasy (GB)J: A E Lynch Dobbins Catering At Punchestown Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 22 ran 5th 16/1

26 Oct 09 Galway Whosaidso (IRE)J: A E Lynch W.B. Gavin & Co. E.B.F. Beginners Chase22.5f · Soft · 18 ran 7th 16/1

25 Oct 09 Wexford Better Times (IRE)J: Mr D W Cullen Spawell (c & G) (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 15 ran 1st 10/1

25 Oct 09 Wexford Unforgivable (IRE)J: T G M Ryan Rocklands Service Station (c & G) Maiden Hurdle18f · Soft · 16 ran 9th 20/1

25 Oct 09 Wexford Little Barney (IRE)J: Barry Geraghty Rocklands Service Station (c & G) Maiden Hurdle18f · Soft · 16 ran 3rd 7/4F

24 Oct 09 Wexford Kaliski (IRE)J: Mr F J Coonan New Extension At Wexford Racecourse Mares (pro/am) Flat Race16f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 14/1

18 Oct 09 Cork French Riviera (GB)J: Emmet Mullins Newmarket Handicap Hurdle (81-102)16f · Good · 22 ran F 16/1

15 Oct 09 Punchestown Oligarch Society (IRE)J: A E Lynch Grabel Mares Hurdle (listed)18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 5th 6/1

11 Oct 09 Curragh Total Reality (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Newbridge Greyhound Stadium E.B.F. Median Auction Maiden8f · Soft · 21 ran 4th 20/1

11 Oct 09 Curragh Essex (IRE)J: Conor O'Farrell Mongey Communictaions Handicap (60-90)14f · Soft · 20 ran 8th 7/2F

29 Sep 09 Roscommon Johnston's Kiwi (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Knockcroghery Flat Race16f · Firm · 11 ran 5th 5/1

29 Sep 09 Roscommon French Riviera (GB)J: A E Lynch All Creatures Veterinary Handicap Hurdle (81-109)16f · Firm · 17 ran 8th 12/1

28 Sep 09 Roscommon Daring Man (IRE)J: Colm O'Donoghue Athlone Handicap (50-85)7f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 11th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is M J P O'Brien's strike rate?: M J P O'Brien has won 18 of 225 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does M J P O'Brien do best at?: Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 32 runners (21.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is M J P O'Brien's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 225 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.