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Trainer profile

M D O'Callaghan

2,166 runners in the lifetime window · 343 individual horses
As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 8.9% of 247 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 3 Nov 2026.
Last runner 2 days ago 98% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
232–2,166
Wins / Runs
10.7%
Strike rate
n=2,166
659 (30%)
Placed
1.03
Fair A/E
n=2,162 · 0.84 incl. margin
−727.23
£1 level stake
n=2,166 at SP · −33.6%
£4.88m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.03).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,166 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Nov–Feb 34.4% when favourite Leigh Roche: 9.6% from 636 Sends off the favourite in 10% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Punchestown (21.2%, n=33), clear of the yard's 10.7% baseline. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 5.6% (n=304, Fair A/E 0.68). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 7.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.82 and −281.13 to a £1 stake over 483 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Leigh Roche rides 29% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 1.06) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 5.6% over 304 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. 17 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2021, £147,500). The stable star of the record: Facethepuckout (IRE) — 6 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Nov–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.5%−0.2
n=362 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −150.67
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.7%−4.0
n=45 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −33.50
Debutants · first career start
11%+0.3
n=301 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −24.27
First-time headgear · true-first definition
7.7%−3.0
n=168 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −100.49
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.6%−0.1
n=85 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −29.25
When favourite
34.4%
n=218 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −11.49
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.2%−3.5
n=483 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −281.13
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
5.6%−5.1
n=304 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −203.30

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Colin Keane 22% vs 10.7% · n=254
With Dylan Browne McMonagle 22.6% vs 10.7% · n=53
At Punchestown 21.2% vs 10.7% · n=33
With Sean Davis 2.5% vs 10.7% · n=81
In Class 1 5.6% vs 10.7% · n=304
In Group / Graded races 5.6% vs 10.7% · n=304
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 2,132 228 10.7% −712.98
Hurdle 28 3 10.7% −13.75
NH Flat 6 1 16.7% −0.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 593 65 11% −143.33
Soft 547 58 10.6% −204.88
Standard (AW) 448 55 12.3% −165.51
Good to Firm 210 23 11% −73.36
Good to Soft 196 19 9.7% −38.40
Heavy 172 12 7% −101.75

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 424 48 11.3% −167.17
Curragh 379 26 6.9% −182.77
Naas 271 34 12.5% −56.42
Leopardstown 170 13 7.6% −103.12
Gowran Park 128 15 11.7% −5.75
Navan 113 18 15.9% +2.65
Cork 89 8 9% −30.12
Galway 88 4 4.5% −58.50
Fairyhouse 64 7 10.9% −21.14
Roscommon 54 7 13% +15.13
Killarney 48 5 10.4% −13.00
Tipperary 41 7 17.1% −5.87
Punchestown 33 7 21.2% +8.30
Down Royal 32 4 12.5% −7.00
Limerick 29 3 10.3% −15.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 304 17 5.6% −203.30
Class 5 10 7 70% +9.81
Class 2 9 0 0% −9.00
Class 4 7 3 42.9% −0.26
Class 6 5 2 40% +4.00
Class 3 3 2 66.7% +8.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 265 87 32.8% 1.19 −6.41
2nd–3rd fav 499 90 18% 1.14 −48.32
4th–6th fav 617 40 6.5% 0.86 −196.50
7th+ in betting 785 15 1.9% 0.57 −476.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Fastidious (GB)from D K Weld 56 4 16 15 Feb 19
Rockbury Lad (GB) 55 3 12 15 Sep 26
Darkdeserthighway (IRE) 50 5 12 16 Oct 26
Facethepuckout (IRE)from John Ryan 45 6 17 2 Nov 25
Mr Bounty (GB) 36 3 9 26 Jul 17
I Am Superman (IRE) 34 5 8 2 Nov 25
Fastnet Crown (IRE) 26 4 8 26 Aug 23
Twilight Jet (IRE)then Jim & Suzi Best 25 4 6 12 Oct 24
I Will Excel (IRE)then John James Feane 23 1 9 3 Sep 16
Navassa Island (IRE) 22 2 9 26 Oct 26
Aggression (IRE) 22 3 7 6 May 19
Delegating (GB)then Keith Henry Clarke 21 0 6 28 Sep 18
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 343 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive; 53 had their first archived run for this yard.

22 have since run for another yard, most often for Jim & Suzi Best (2); 38 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 10
Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
1215111391011101281417
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLeigh Roche
29% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 1.06
RiderRWSR£1
Leigh Roche 636 61 9.6% −133.56
Colin Keane 254 56 22% +45.95
Jamie Powell 147 13 8.8% −45.05
Shane B Kelly 124 11 8.9% −62.58
Sean Davis 81 2 2.5% −66.00
Pat Smullen 72 9 12.5% −37.24
Emmet McNamara 67 10 14.9% −22.80
Gary Halpin 67 3 4.5% −44.75
Fergal Lynch 67 7 10.4% −27.64
Dylan Browne McMonagle 53 12 22.6% +1.31
Kieren Fallon 49 3 6.1% −31.13
W J Lee 40 3 7.5% −19.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→
232
Archived wins
17
Pattern / graded wins
£4.88m
Prize money
2025
Best season · 26 wins
Super King (IRE) — Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes Curragh · Sep 2021
£147,500
Black Forza (USA) — Markel Richmond Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Aug 2024 · Group 2
£99,243
Celeron (GB) — GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2) Curragh (IRE) · Jul 2026 · Group 2
£78,000
Notable horses
Facethepuckout (IRE) Darkdeserthighway (IRE) I Am Superman (IRE) Red Evolution (IRE) Fastidious (GB) Fastnet Crown (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Kodiac (GB) 13.9% · 15–108
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,589 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.
Exceed and Excel (AUS) 7.7% · 7–91
Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,032 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
Mehmas (IRE) 13.3% · 12–90
Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,198 runs since 2020 (751 horses).
Showcasing (GB) 6.1% · 5–82
Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,637 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.
Hallowed Crown (AUS) 11.5% · 9–78
Progeny have won 8.9% of 619 runs since 2019 (48 horses).
Footstepsinthesand (GB) 14.6% · 7–48
Progeny have won 10.2% of 12,804 runs since 2009 (937 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.9% from 320.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,166 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,166 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 16 May 2012 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Breaking Dawn (GB)J: Leigh Roche Isuzu Ireland Handicap7f · Yielding To Soft · 25 ran 5th 40/1
01 Nov 26 Curragh (IRE) Too Too Much (GB)J: Reese Holohan Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 10th 33/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Shorten The Winter (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Premiere Weekend Two-Day Ticket Just €35 Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 9th 66/1
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Maxims Of Equity (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Win A Trip To Lapland At Punchestown On Sun 22 November Maiden7f · Yielding · 11 ran 6th 200/1
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Quinn Blue (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 100/1
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Golden Alibi (USA)J: Seamie Heffernan Irishinjuredjockeys.com Fillies Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 7/4
26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Navassa Island (IRE)J: S Pasquier Prix de Seine-et-Oise (Group 3)1 · 6f · Heavy · 18 ran 13th 22/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Kanzashi (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Des Byrne Memorial Maiden10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 11th 50/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) The Captains Day (IRE)J: Dylan Browne McMonagle Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 9/2
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Saga Lucia (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Halloween Mid-Term Racing Next Week Apprentice Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 12th 12/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Lady Plimsoll (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 6th 7/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Shorten The Winter (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 10th 50/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Darkdeserthighway (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Book Now Handicap10.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 18/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Two Brigade (IRE)J: Reese Holohan James Crowe 1 Year Memorial Nursery Handicap7f · Standard · 13 ran 5th 20/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Flagstone Lady (IRE)J: Reese Holohan Isuzu Ireland Handicap14f · Yielding To Soft · 21 ran 8th 10/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Maxims Of Equity (IRE)J: Jamie Powell Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden6f · Soft · 12 ran 8th 150/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Adel (GER)J: Jamie Powell On-Course Vets Handicap12f · Soft · 16 ran 2nd 20/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Back Straight (GB)J: Colin Keane Roscommon Rated Race10.5f · Soft · 5 ran 3rd 9/4J
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Breaking Dawn (GB)J: Colin Keane Guinness Handicap7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 28/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Hassaniya (IRE)J: Colin Keane Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden7.5f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 14/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 19 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is M D O'Callaghan's strike rate?
M D O'Callaghan has won 232 of 2,166 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does M D O'Callaghan do best at?
Punchestown by strike rate: 7 wins from 33 runners (21.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for M D O'Callaghan?
Leigh Roche, with 636 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 61 (9.6%).
Is M D O'Callaghan in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is M D O'Callaghan's Fair A/E?
1.03, from 2,162 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 3 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).