What is Niall Madden's strike rate?

Niall Madden has won 86 of 1,093 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Niall Madden do best at?

Sligo by strike rate: 8 wins from 35 runners (22.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Niall Madden?

Niall P Madden, with 512 runners since 2008 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (8.4%).

What is Niall Madden's Fair A/E?

1.11, from 1,093 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Niall Madden

1,093 runners in the lifetime window · 132 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 318 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

86–1,093

Wins / Runs

7.9%

Strike rate

n=1,093

230 (21%)

Placed

1.11

Fair A/E

n=1,093 · 0.85 incl. margin

−244.85

£1 level stake

n=1,093 at SP · −22.4%

£957k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.11). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 14% (44 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,093 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Sep 24.3% when favourite Niall P Madden: 8.4% from 512 Headgear returns: 13.6% Claiming riders: 8.7% Sends off the favourite in 6% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sligo (22.9%, n=35), Wexford (20%, n=30) and Cork (16.2%, n=37) — all clear of the yard's 7.9% baseline. It is weakest at Leopardstown (0% over 38 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=44, Fair A/E 1.84), but debutants struggle at 0% (n=51, Fair A/E 0.00). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 8.7% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.41 and +3.83 to a £1 stake over 277 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Niall P Madden rides 47% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.4%, A/E 1.09) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (17.1%, n=41). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Kilkenny Racing Festival Handicap Hurdle at Gowran Park (Oct 2018, £29,500). The stable star of the record: Shake The Bucket (IRE) — 15 wins from 117 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

6.4%−1.5

n=298 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −60.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

6.3%−1.6

n=63 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −6.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−7.9

n=51 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −51.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.4%−5.5

n=41 · A/E 0.38 · £1 −38.90

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

13.6%+5.7

n=44 · A/E 1.84 · £1 −5.00

When favourite

24.3%

n=70 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −7.34

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.7%+0.8

n=277 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +3.83

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

9.1%+1.2

n=33 · A/E 1.28 · £1 −9.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Sligo 22.9% vs 7.9% · n=35

At Wexford 20% vs 7.9% · n=30

Off a 0-7-day break 17.1% vs 7.9% · n=41

With debutants 0% vs 7.9% · n=51

At Cork 16.2% vs 7.9% · n=37

At Leopardstown 0% vs 7.9% · n=38

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 62.3% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 500 41 8.2% −126.21

Flat 364 26 7.1% −69.17

Chase 211 17 8.1% −62.47

NH Flat 18 2 11.1% +13.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 318 20 6.3% −136.92

Good 231 26 11.3% +27.83

Heavy 195 12 6.2% −120.07

Standard (AW) 165 17 10.3% +50.33

Good to Firm 93 4 4.3% −48.62

Good to Soft 85 7 8.2% −11.40

Firm 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 160 16 10% +44.33

Punchestown 86 4 4.7% −41.17

Fairyhouse 73 3 4.1% −48.00

Navan 68 2 2.9% −47.50

Ballinrobe 56 6 10.7% −8.57

Naas 56 1 1.8% −48.00

Roscommon 54 3 5.6% −20.00

Leopardstown 38 0 0% −38.00

Gowran Park 37 2 5.4% −19.00

Tipperary 37 4 10.8% +5.60

Cork 37 6 16.2% −11.00

Limerick 37 3 8.1% −13.00

Galway 36 2 5.6% +0.00

Sligo 35 8 22.9% +36.75

Down Royal 34 3 8.8% +3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 23 1 4.3% −10.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 92 20 21.7% 1.00 −15.34

2nd–3rd fav 148 27 18.2% 1.38 +7.99

4th–6th fav 256 17 6.6% 0.93 −28.50

7th+ in betting 597 22 3.7% 1.11 −209.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 381 23 6% −135.87

2m1f – 2m4f 291 26 8.9% −72.91

1m2f – 1m4f 196 18 9.2% +8.83

2m5f – 3m 110 12 10.9% −10.90

1m – 1m1f 45 3 6.7% −8.00

6f – 7f 44 1 2.3% −33.00

Over 3m 14 2 14.3% +11.00

Under 6f 12 1 8.3% −4.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 123 7 5.7% −48.50

2009 91 4 4.4% −66.00

2010 75 10 13.3% +15.00

2011 102 9 8.8% −4.19

2012 78 11 14.1% +6.25

2013 106 4 3.8% −67.17

2014 80 2 2.5% −69.67

2015 39 3 7.7% −24.00

2016 77 9 11.7% +37.50

2017 72 12 16.7% +78.93

2018 83 4 4.8% −46.00

2019 68 5 7.4% −11.50

2020 35 3 8.6% −18.50

2021 34 2 5.9% −23.00

2022 19 0 0% −19.00

2023 4 1 25% +22.00

2024 2 0 0% −2.00

2025 5 0 0% −5.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 719 62 8.6% −88.76

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 418 34 8.1% −22.40

17+ runners 275 13 4.7% −128.50

11-13 runners 224 17 7.6% −67.79

8-10 runners 123 18 14.6% −12.76

5-7 runners 49 4 8.2% −9.40

2-4 runners 4 0 0% −4.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Shake The Bucket (IRE) 117 15 40 3 Dec 19

Whatever It Takes (IRE)from T Stack 51 6 14 16 Sep 19

Pass The Ball (IRE) 37 6 13 3 Aug 21

The Hamptons (IRE) 37 3 7 14 Feb 14

Salesin (GB)from Jonjo O'Neill 36 7 17 30 Sep 13

Aa Bee See (GB)from David Wachman 31 5 8 1 Feb 22

Forgetthesurprise (IRE) 28 3 7 30 May 24

Clancy Strand (NZ) 27 2 7 29 Apr 16

Fit To Be Tied (IRE) 26 2 5 12 Mar 22

Highdownhill (NZ) 26 5 5 4 Jun 14

Wins Now (GB)from T Doumen 26 4 9 13 Nov 11

Ainama (IRE)from Nicky Henderson 19 4 7 3 Aug 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 132 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 37 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David Wachman (6) and Jonjo O'Neill (6); 23 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for Jonjo O'Neill (7) and Ben Haslam (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

32776914139772

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderNiall P Madden

47% of all rides
8.4% SR · A/E 1.09

RiderRWSR£1

Niall P Madden 512 43 8.4% −114.84

Tom Madden 146 9 6.2% −19.50

Fran Berry 84 6 7.1% −43.00

Mark Walsh 69 5 7.2% −26.34

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

115

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.36m

Prize money

2017

Best season · 12 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Pass The Ball (IRE) — Kilkenny Racing Festival Handicap Hurdle (Grade B) Gowran Park · Oct 2018 · Grade B

£29,500

Ainama (IRE) — www.corkracecourse.ie Handicap Hurdle (grade C) Cork · Nov 2010 · Grade C

£18,525

Ursumman (IRE) — Galway Plate Trial Handicap Chase Down Royal · Jun 2006

£17,903

Notable horses

Shake The Bucket (IRE) Salesin (GB) Wins Now (GB) Whatever It Takes (IRE) Pass The Ball (IRE) Team Allstar (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Ashkalani (IRE) 12.8% · 15–117

Progeny have won 7.3% of 519 runs since 2008 (56 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 12.4% from 129. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.7% from 111.

Montjeu (IRE) 7.8% · 7–90

Progeny have won 12.3% of 7,971 runs since 2008 (665 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.3% from 686.

High Chaparral (IRE) 11.3% · 6–53

Progeny have won 10.3% of 8,730 runs since 2008 (682 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 419.

Oscar (IRE) 5.8% · 3–52

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Getaway (GER) 8.9% · 4–45

Progeny have won 11.3% of 11,010 runs since 2016 (1,032 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.1% from 134.

Presenting (GB) 4.9% · 2–41

Progeny have won 11% of 20,052 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,425 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,425 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 29 January 2005 to 26 December 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Dec 25 Leopardstown Ifuknowuknow (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor Race And Stay Flat Race16f · Yielding · 12 ran 7th 80/1

15 Oct 25 Punchestown Ifuknowuknow (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor BetVictor Flat Race16.5f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 6th 12/1

22 Sep 25 Listowel Coconut Grove (FR)J: Miss A B O'Connor Treo Eile Retraining Ireland's Racehorses Handicap14f · Heavy · 15 ran 14th 150/1

01 Sep 25 Roscommon Coconut Grove (FR)J: Miss A B O'Connor Lecarrow Race10.5f · Soft · 8 ran 8th 200/1

01 Aug 25 Galway Coconut Grove (FR)J: Miss A B O'Connor Rockshore Refreshingly Irish Race14f · Yielding · 7 ran 7th 50/1

30 May 24 Limerick Forgetthesurprise (IRE)J: Tom Harney Free Streaming All Racing At Tote.ie Handicap Hurdle (80-102)22f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran 8th 8/1

11 May 24 Cork Forgetthesurprise (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Fraser Rutherford Handicap Hurdle (80-95)24.5f · Good · 18 ran 6th 40/1

30 Aug 23 Bellewstown Forgetthesurprise (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Reddans Of Bettystown Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20.5f · Good · 15 ran 10th 22/1

07 Aug 23 Cork Onlyamatteroftime (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Kanturk Handicap Hurdle (80-109)18.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran RO 3/1F

10 Jul 23 Roscommon Onlyamatteroftime (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 3rd 2/1

10 Jun 23 Punchestown Onlyamatteroftime (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Anglesey Lodge Equine Hospital (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 1st 25/1

07 Dec 22 Dundalk (AW) Red Lodge (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Crowne Plaza Dundalk Race & Stay Package Maiden12f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 250/1

20 Oct 22 Thurles Red Lodge (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor Munster Flat Race15.5f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 15th 66/1

12 Oct 22 Punchestown Onlyamatteroftime (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Festival 2023 On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 12 ran 8th 80/1

30 Sep 22 Gowran Park Onlyamatteroftime (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Gowran Park Racing Club Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 16 ran 5th 50/1

26 Sep 22 Roscommon Shaylee (IRE)J: Shane O'Callaghan Boyle Maiden Hurdle15.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 150/1

25 Aug 22 Navan Shaylee (IRE)J: Tom Madden Racing Next At Navan On Saturday September 3rd Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)14f · Good · 13 ran 12th 50/1

23 Jul 22 Gowran Park Shaylee (IRE)J: Tom Madden Get Galway Races Ready With tote.ie Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)9.5f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 11th 20/1

29 May 22 Punchestown Forgetthesurprise (IRE)J: Miss A B O'Connor Watch Racing Free Online With Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 12 ran PU 22/1

28 May 22 Punchestown Red Lodge (IRE)J: Aidan Kelly Get Your Ladbrokes Daily Odds Boosts Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16f · Good · 18 ran 13th 50/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Niall Madden's strike rate?: Niall Madden has won 86 of 1,093 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Niall Madden do best at?: Sligo by strike rate: 8 wins from 35 runners (22.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Niall Madden?: Niall P Madden, with 512 runners since 2008 — 47% of the total. That pairing has won 43 (8.4%).
What is Niall Madden's Fair A/E?: 1.11, from 1,093 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.