What is Nigel Twiston-Davies's strike rate?

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won 1,321 of 9,482 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nigel Twiston-Davies do best at?

Perth by strike rate: 66 wins from 304 runners (21.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Nigel Twiston-Davies?

Sam Twiston-Davies, with 4,130 runners since 2008 — 44% of the total. That pairing has won 641 (15.5%).

What is Nigel Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 9,468 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Nigel Twiston-Davies

9,482 runners in the lifetime window · 839 individual horses

As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2025 97% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

1,321–9,482

Wins / Runs

13.9%

Strike rate

n=9,482

3,215 (34%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=9,468 · 0.87 incl. margin

−1,904.07

£1 level stake

n=9,479 at SP · −20.1%

£21.7m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 500 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 14% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.00). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 16% off breaks of two months or more (2,144 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 9,482 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Oct Fresh horses: 15.7% 34.4% when favourite Sam Twiston-Davies: 15.5% from 4,130 New recruits: 15.6% Sends off the favourite in 15% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Perth (21.7%, n=304) and Fontwell (23.1%, n=104) — all clear of the yard's 13.9% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 9.8% (n=244, Fair A/E 0.91). Sam Twiston-Davies rides 44% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (15.5%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. 103 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 2010, £270,798). The stable star of the record: The New One (IRE) — 20 wins from 40 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

15.7%+1.8

n=2,144 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −193.89

New recruits · first run for the yard

15.6%+1.7

n=263 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +4.05

Debutants · first career start

13.7%−0.2

n=497 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −57.82

First-time headgear · true-first definition

10.9%−3.0

n=331 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −143.20

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

9.8%−4.1

n=244 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −97.15

When favourite

34.4%

n=1,385 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −134.94

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.2%−0.7

n=2,788 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −379.14

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.5%−3.4

n=949 · A/E 0.97 · £1 −262.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell 35.5% vs 13.9% · n=31

With Adam Wedge 0% vs 13.9% · n=38

On last-time-out winners 20.3% vs 13.9% · n=1,324

With Daryl Jacob 21.9% vs 13.9% · n=274

At Perth 21.7% vs 13.9% · n=304

At Fontwell 23.1% vs 13.9% · n=104

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 4,334 623 14.4% −821.21

Chase 4,061 563 13.9% −913.90

NH Flat 839 108 12.9% −179.33

Flat 248 27 10.9% +10.37

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 3,322 452 13.6% −793.08

Good to Soft 2,360 315 13.3% −427.94

Soft 2,293 344 15% −317.42

Heavy 947 146 15.4% −179.46

Good to Firm 387 47 12.1% −136.54

Standard (AW) 165 16 9.7% −44.38

Firm 8 1 12.5% −5.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 972 93 9.6% −199.49

Ludlow 497 65 13.1% −164.14

Warwick 493 69 14% −116.29

Uttoxeter 470 74 15.7% −72.96

Ffos Las 411 79 19.2% −19.23

Chepstow 381 48 12.6% −75.19

Newbury 373 35 9.4% −84.47

Stratford 353 58 16.4% −9.52

Aintree 353 41 11.6% −106.43

Worcester 348 58 16.7% −51.42

Perth 304 66 21.7% −25.64

Haydock 288 36 12.5% −92.71

Huntingdon 282 34 12.1% −97.00

Southwell 245 39 15.9% −28.09

Bangor-on-Dee 241 38 15.8% −71.03

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 3,202 558 17.4% −294.29

Class 3 2,046 284 13.9% −546.73

Class 5 1,448 178 12.3% −306.09

Class 1 1,361 123 9% −360.96

Class 2 1,078 134 12.4% −252.96

Class 6 334 42 12.6% −137.04

Class 7 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 1,618 545 33.7% 1.07 −106.53

2nd–3rd fav 2,791 486 17.4% 1.01 −311.04

4th–6th fav 2,945 209 7.1% 0.84 −936.50

7th+ in betting 2,125 79 3.7% 0.97 −550.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m5f – 3m 3,135 406 13% −656.65

2m1f – 2m4f 2,499 395 15.8% −427.93

1m5f – 2m 2,476 379 15.3% −445.98

Over 3m 1,196 123 10.3% −382.95

1m2f – 1m4f 137 18 13.1% +48.44

1m – 1m1f 26 0 0% −26.00

6f – 7f 12 0 0% −12.00

Under 6f 1 0 0% −1.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 613 97 15.8% −18.21

2009 616 64 10.4% −158.88

2010 690 98 14.2% +34.58

2011 638 71 11.1% −147.78

2012 556 74 13.3% −129.91

2013 599 74 12.4% −139.34

2014 509 83 16.3% −64.05

2015 529 70 13.2% −90.11

2016 565 106 18.8% −56.63

2017 573 75 13.1% −150.20

2018 541 66 12.2% −219.91

2019 541 83 15.3% −122.15

2020 424 54 12.7% −75.84

2021 550 66 12% −191.00

2022 417 60 14.4% −113.44

2023 453 82 18.1% −71.38

2024 477 75 15.7% −138.03

2025 191 23 12% −51.79

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 5,909 734 12.4% −1,211.26

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 2,839 409 14.4% −505.15

5-7 runners 2,228 458 20.6% −197.86

11-13 runners 2,122 212 10% −521.62

14-16 runners 1,172 102 8.7% −363.73

17+ runners 747 43 5.8% −216.37

2-4 runners 373 96 25.7% −99.34

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.9% completed · 8,395 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 4,061 77.7% 188 119 573 7 20

Hurdle 4,334 89.7% 58 41 335 3 8

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Astracad (FR) 64 9 23 21 Apr 19

Papradon (GB)from John Best 58 9 23 20 Aug 15

Pigeon Island (GB)from Henry Candy 56 6 14 26 Jul 15

Kilvergan Boy (IRE) 54 5 20 19 Jan 14

Double Ross (IRE)from I R Ferguson 53 7 20 21 Mar 19

Cootehill (IRE) 53 9 23 27 Feb 14

Topofthecotswolds (IRE)then Ollie Pears 48 7 21 2 Nov 24

Double Court (IRE) 48 6 16 13 Sep 21

Splash of Ginge (GB) 47 6 11 16 Nov 19

Jaunty Journey (GB)from Carl Llewellyn · then P Foster 47 4 19 24 Apr 15

Belmount (IRE) 46 9 20 25 Oct 19

Major Malarkey (IRE) 45 7 13 27 Apr 16

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 839 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 31 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from I R Ferguson (2); 50 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Fergal O'Brien (2) and Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies (2); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

131212111013162123201512

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSam Twiston-Davies

44% of all rides
15.5% SR · A/E 1.00

RiderRWSR£1

Sam Twiston-Davies 4,130 641 15.5% −888.40

Paddy Brennan 1,204 164 13.6% −33.58

Jamie Bargary 598 66 11% −159.59

Ryan Hatch 487 66 13.6% −99.80

Jordan Nailor 397 53 13.4% −47.15

David England 359 39 10.9% −98.59

Daryl Jacob 274 60 21.9% −59.96

William Twiston-Davies 209 23 11% −16.62

Tom Bellamy 196 21 10.7% −50.36

Tom Molloy 171 20 11.7% −19.32

Finn Lambert 171 26 15.2% −58.08

James Turner 141 16 11.3% −42.64

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

1,510

Archived wins

103

Pattern / graded wins

£23.7m

Prize money

2016

Best season · 106 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Imperial Commander (IRE) — totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2010 · Class 1

£270,798

Imperial Commander (IRE) — Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) Cheltenham · Mar 2009 · Class 1

£125,422

Hello Bud (IRE) — Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Ayr · Apr 2009 · Class 1

£114,020

Notable horses

The New One (IRE) Good Boy Bobby (IRE) Earlofthecotswolds (FR) Pigeon Island (GB) Robinshill (IRE) Billie Magern (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Presenting (GB) 14.3% · 48–335

Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Kayf Tara (GB) 16.5% · 53–322

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,768 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Oscar (IRE) 12.4% · 35–282

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Arcadio (GER) 12.4% · 29–234

Progeny have won 9.2% of 3,981 runs since 2011 (375 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 17.4% · 38–218

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,295 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Alderbrook (GB) 12.3% · 25–204

Progeny have won 9.7% of 3,293 runs since 2008 (299 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 10,832 · newest first

The latest 50 of 10,832 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 26 April 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Apr 25 Sandown Push The Button (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies bet365 Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 8th 18/1

26 Apr 25 Sandown Master Chewy (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 15.5f · Good · 7 ran 6th 22/1

25 Apr 25 Perth Spectacularsunrise (GB)J: James Turner Goodbye Charlo Thanks For Everything Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 4th 9/2

25 Apr 25 Perth Lightning Flash (IRE)J: James Turner Simon Dunning Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 7th 9/1

25 Apr 25 Perth Guard The Moon (GB)J: James Turner Campbell & Son Roofing Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 26.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran F 7/1

25 Apr 25 Perth High Treason (GB)J: Jamie Brace Alastair Down Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran UR 5/1

24 Apr 25 Bangor-on-Dee Kel Raffles (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Bangor-On-Dee Congratulates Champion Jockey Sean Bowen Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 4th 18/1

24 Apr 25 Warwick Bredon Hill (IRE)J: James Turner Hazelton Mountford Insurance Brokers Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 7th 6/1

23 Apr 25 Ludlow The Egyptian Ginge (IRE)J: Mr Jamie Neild Suzuki 'King Of Quads' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 7/4F

22 Apr 25 Hereford Race To Base (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Spa Motors Hereford Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 1st 11/10F

22 Apr 25 Hereford Moveit Like Minnie (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Happy Birthday Malcolm & Danielle Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 4th 15/2

21 Apr 25 Chepstow Fantomas (FR)J: James Turner Tip Top Sensational Shower Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 15 ran 12th 16/1

20 Apr 25 Fairyhouse Intosomethinggood (GB)J: Mr D McGill Tattersalls Ireland George Mernagh Memorial Sales Bumper16f · Soft To Heavy · 17 ran 10th 14/1

19 Apr 25 Haydock Safe Destination (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies JCB Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 25.5f · Good · 4 ran 4th 6/4F

17 Apr 25 Ffos Las Moon Over America (IRE)J: James Turner Adept GRP Cabinets Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 2nd 11/2

17 Apr 25 Ffos Las Stream Of Stars (GB)J: James Turner Adept GRP Cabinets Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 2nd 5/1

17 Apr 25 Ffos Las Fantastikas (FR)J: James Turner Mickey Bowen Racing Coming Soon Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 28/1

17 Apr 25 Cheltenham Hill In Brazil (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Junior Jumpers Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 18 ran 14th 33/1

17 Apr 25 Cheltenham Topsout (GB)J: Nico de Boinville Junior Jumpers Mares' Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 2 · 17f · Good · 18 ran 13th 80/1

16 Apr 25 Ffos Las I Am The Moon (GB)J: Jamie Brace Adept GRP Cabinets Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 24f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 6/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Nigel Twiston-Davies's strike rate?: Nigel Twiston-Davies has won 1,321 of 9,482 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 13.9% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nigel Twiston-Davies do best at?: Perth by strike rate: 66 wins from 304 runners (21.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nigel Twiston-Davies?: Sam Twiston-Davies, with 4,130 runners since 2008 — 44% of the total. That pairing has won 641 (15.5%).
What is Nigel Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 9,468 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.