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Trainer profile

Paul Traynor

284 runners in the lifetime window · 30 individual horses
As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 6 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
17–284
Wins / Runs
6%
Strike rate
n=284
45 (16%)
Placed
1.11
Fair A/E
n=284 · 0.91 incl. margin
−105.56
£1 level stake
n=284 at SP · −37.2%
£222k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
8.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.11).

Deterministic profile computed from 284 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (0% over 33 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (10.8%, n=83) and on Good going (9.9%, n=81). The record reads poorly on Standard (AW) going — 0% over 33 runners, 6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Shumaker (IRE) — 7 wins from 35 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.4%−0.6
n=56 · A/E 1.79 · £1 −37.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.0
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.0
n=20 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −20.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.0
n=15 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −15.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.0
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
63.6%
n=11 · A/E 1.95 · £1 +6.82
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6%+0.0
n=184 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −21.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.0
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 10.8% vs 6% · n=83
At Dundalk (AW) 0% vs 6% · n=33
On Standard (AW) going 0% vs 6% · n=33
Over 2m5f – 3m 0% vs 6% · n=31
On Good going 9.9% vs 6% · n=81
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 3% vs 6% · n=67
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 123 7 5.7% −89.71
Hurdle 111 6 5.4% −84.47
Chase 30 2 6.7% −18.88
NH Flat 20 2 10% +87.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 88 3 3.4% −78.12
Good 81 8 9.9% +50.91
Heavy 40 3 7.5% −27.85
Good to Soft 35 3 8.6% −10.50
Standard (AW) 33 0 0% −33.00
Good to Firm 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Down Royal 54 4 7.4% +61.50
Dundalk (AW) 33 0 0% −33.00
Navan 29 1 3.4% −23.50
Punchestown 24 2 8.3% −18.50
Naas 18 2 11.1% +0.00
Fairyhouse 18 2 11.1% −10.25
Leopardstown 13 0 0% −13.00
Downpatrick 11 0 0% −11.00
Gowran Park 8 0 0% −8.00
Clonmel 8 0 0% −8.00
Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00
Ayr 7 1 14.3% −2.00
Bellewstown 7 0 0% −7.00
Sligo 6 0 0% −6.00
Wexford 6 1 16.7% −4.10

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 3 4 1 25% +4.50
Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 4 3 1 33.3% +2.00
Class 5 3 1 33.3% −1.71
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 12 7 58.3% 1.84 +5.82
2nd–3rd fav 24 5 20.8% 1.36 +3.62
4th–6th fav 54 4 7.4% 1.10 −22.00
7th+ in betting 194 1 0.5% 0.24 −93.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Shumaker (IRE)from Eoin Gerard Barry 35 7 9 17 Sep 22
Lusis Naturea (GB)from Mrs Caroline McCaldin 34 2 10 12 May 22
Stansfield (IRE) 30 1 6 9 May 24
Fiver Friday (IRE)then Gavin Cromwell 28 5 9 22 Aug 25
Ledger (IRE) 17 0 0 26 May 26
Ruhm Und Ehre (IRE) 16 0 2 24 May 22
Boing (GB)from Miss Clare Louise Cannon 15 0 1 2 Nov 22
Astley (IRE) 12 0 1 9 Oct 26
Hi Sur Multi (GB)from Gary McGill · then H Smyth 12 0 1 22 Mar 24
Greige (IRE) 12 0 2 3 Mar 22
Stonyfalls (IRE) 9 0 1 1 Oct 26
Anjician (IRE) 9 0 0 10 Aug 24
All 30 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 30 horses listed, 10 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from B R Hamilton (2) and Ronan M P McNally (2); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
650110713631700
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Darragh O'Keeffe 27 4 14.8% −14.23
J M Sheridan 18 3 16.7% −8.50
Mr C Abernethy 18 2 11.1% −4.50
Sam Ewing 17 0 0% −17.00
Shane Fitzgerald 11 0 0% −11.00
Seamie Heffernan 9 0 0% −9.00
Liam McKenna 8 1 12.5% +1.00
Conor Orr 8 0 0% −8.00
Mr R Guiney 7 0 0% −7.00
Wayne Hassett 7 1 14.3% +2.00
Donal McInerney 5 1 20% −2.62
Luke McAteer 5 0 0% −5.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
17
Archived wins
£222k
Prize money
2020
Best season · 4 wins
Fiver Friday (IRE) — Sky Bet Request A Bet Fillies' Handicap Hamilton · Jun 2024 · Class 3
£14,947
Fiver Friday (IRE) — TRM Speedxcell Multi Vitamin And Mineral Tonic Handicap Naas · Aug 2024
£12,980
Stansfield (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Rated Novice Chase Down Royal · Feb 2021
£10,915
Notable horses
Shumaker (IRE) Fiver Friday (IRE) Lusis Naturea (GB) Stansfield (IRE) Staton (IRE) Kershaw (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Multiplex (GB) 4.3% · 2–46
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,181 runs since 2011 (291 horses).
Whitmore's Conn (USA) 20% · 7–35
Progeny have won 9% of 1,102 runs since 2008 (78 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 329.
Thousand Words (GB) 3.3% · 1–30
Progeny have won 6.7% of 932 runs since 2012 (68 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.2% from 226. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 133.
The Gurkha (IRE) 17.9% · 5–28
Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,029 runs since 2020 (127 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.7% from 183. Weakest on Heavy going: 2.9% from 105. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.3% from 111.
Profitable (IRE) 0% · 0–17
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,444 runs since 2021 (358 horses).
Fame And Glory (GB) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,212 runs since 2016 (504 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 284 · newest first

The latest 50 of 284 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 July 2019 to 31 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
31 Oct 26 Down Royal (IRE) Staton (IRE)J: Anna McGuinness SIS, Proud Sponsors Of Irish Racing (Pro/Am) Flat Race17f · Good · 14 ran 1st 100/1
09 Oct 26 Downpatrick (IRE) Astley (IRE)J: Jack Kennedy McGrady Financial Services Beginners Steeplechase19.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 11/2
03 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Astley (IRE)J: Sam Ewing Sign up to – GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap Steeplechase20f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 3rd 8/1
01 Oct 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Nicola Burns Bluegrass Horse Feed Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 9 ran 9th 14/1
19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Staton (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Meath Farm Machinery Maiden Hurdle21f · Good · 15 ran 11th 125/1
28 Aug 26 Down Royal (IRE) Astley (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Tayto Group Limited Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 15 ran 4th 17/2
26 Aug 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Staton (IRE)J: Philip Byrnes Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 14 ran 12th 66/1
13 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Heights Hotel, Killarney Handicap11.5f · Good · 14 ran 11th 28/1
02 Jul 26 Bellewstown Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Champion Lettings Handicap (0-60)8f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 25/1
19 Jun 26 Down Royal Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Laura Nicholas Memorial Handicap (0-60)7f · Soft · 11 ran 9th 40/1
29 May 26 Down Royal Stonyfalls (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge BOYLE Sports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap (0-60)7f · Good · 14 ran 6th 66/1
26 May 26 Dundalk (AW) Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Maiden10.5f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 20/1
26 May 26 Dundalk (AW) Ledger (IRE)J: Siobhan Rutledge Irishinjuredjockeys.com Optional Claiming Race8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 150/1
04 May 26 Down Royal Astley (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Club Orange Beginners Chase19.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 6/1
25 Apr 26 Navan Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Julian Pietropaolo Future Stars Raceday 16th May Handicap10f · Good To Yielding · 23 ran 15th 40/1
24 Apr 26 Kilbeggan Kershaw (IRE)J: Mr O McGill Racing Again On Friday 15th May Flat Race16.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 1st 11/2
24 Apr 26 Kilbeggan Astley (IRE)J: Alex Harvey William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Beginners Chase22.5f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 25/1
12 Apr 26 Down Royal Astley (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Giddy Up And Switch To Fibrus Broadband Beginners Chase20.5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 16/1
27 Mar 26 Dundalk (AW) Pedro The Poet (IRE)J: Wesley Joyce BAR 1 Betting 'Join Our Weekly Rewards' Maiden8f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 66/1
21 Mar 26 Navan Astley (IRE)J: Alex Harvey Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Hurdle22.5f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 9 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 9 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul Traynor's strike rate?
Paul Traynor has won 17 of 284 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Traynor do best at?
Down Royal by strike rate: 4 wins from 54 runners (7.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Paul Traynor in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Paul Traynor's Fair A/E?
1.11, from 284 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 6 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).