Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (72 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 171 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 6.9%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=40, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (10.9%, n=55) and on Good going (9.3%, n=43). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 2.1% over 48 runners, 3.2pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.3
n=40 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −40.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.3%+0.0
n=19 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −15.25
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.1%+5.8
n=9 · A/E 3.81 · £1 +58.00
When favourite
12.5%
n=8 · A/E 0.48 · £1 −5.12
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.9%+1.6
n=72 · A/E 1.34 · £1 −34.37
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break10.9% vs 5.3% · n=55
On Good going9.3% vs 5.3% · n=43
Over 1m5f – 2m2.1% vs 5.3% · n=48
With claiming riders up6.9% vs 5.3% · n=72 · A/E 1.34
At Wolverhampton (AW)3.3% vs 5.3% · n=30
On Good to Soft going3.3% vs 5.3% · n=30
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 39.9% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat7134.2%+114.00
Hurdle5735.3%−38.12
Chase28310.7%+3.75
NH Flat1500%−15.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4724.3%+121.00
Good4349.3%−11.12
Good to Firm3026.7%+2.00
Good to Soft3013.3%−26.25
Soft1200%−12.00
Heavy900%−9.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)3013.3%+37.00
Uttoxeter2727.4%−2.00
Bangor-on-Dee2500%−25.00
Southwell (AW)1417.1%+87.00
Leicester9111.1%+8.00
Ludlow8112.5%−2.00
Hereford700%−7.00
Worcester7114.3%−4.12
Haydock600%−6.00
Catterick500%−5.00
Stratford400%−4.00
Huntingdon4125%−0.25
Chepstow400%−4.00
Southwell3133.3%+10.00
Lingfield (AW)200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 56446.3%−29.37
Class 65223.8%+116.00
Class 44836.3%−15.00
Class 3500%−5.00
Class 7200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite10110%0.42−7.12
2nd–3rd fav17211.8%0.84−7.25
4th–6th fav3313%0.41−23.00
7th+ in betting11154.5%2.01+102.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m4812.1%−42.00
1m2f – 1m4f2926.9%+89.00
2m1f – 2m4f2827.1%−15.12
2m5f – 3m20315%+11.75
6f – 7f1915.3%+48.00
1m – 1m1f1400%−14.00
Over 3m1100%−11.00
Under 6f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20086334.8%+70.00
20099233.3%−6.00
201014214.3%−1.12
20242150%+1.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps9166.6%+71.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners6411.6%−51.00
8-10 runners4449.1%+48.88
14-16 runners3725.4%+79.00
5-7 runners1815.6%−8.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
2-4 runners2150%+1.75
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 36 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 36 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Brisbourne (3) and Brian Rothwell (2); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
8 have since run for another yard, most often for Richard Lee (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
006171202400800
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Three Ships (GB) — Peter 'jumbo' Heaney Lifetime In Racing Handicap Hurdle Ludlow · Oct 2009 · Class 4
Progeny have won 9.4% of 4,593 runs since 2008 (350 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.1% from 158.
Deploy (GB)7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 9.5% of 839 runs since 2008 (112 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.4% from 149.
Terimon (GB)7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 7.7% of 868 runs since 2008 (96 horses).
Norwich (GB)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,601 runs since 2008 (176 horses).
Primo Valentino (IRE)8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,160 runs since 2008 (78 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.6% from 132. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.2% from 181. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 3.3% from 183.
Bertolini (USA)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8% of 7,851 runs since 2008 (518 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 215 · newest first
The latest 50 of 215 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 June 2007 to 29 May 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is S Wynne's strike rate?
S Wynne has won 9 of 171 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does S Wynne do best at?
Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 30 runners (3.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is S Wynne's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 170 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
S Wynne·SR 5.3%·A/E 0.93
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