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Trainer profile

Tony McWilliams

402 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses
As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Oct 2018 97% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
14–402
Wins / Runs
3.5%
Strike rate
n=402
64 (16%)
Placed
0.86
Fair A/E
n=400 · 0.73 incl. margin
−96.50
£1 level stake
n=402 at SP · −24.0%
£87,533
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 40 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.86). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (176 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 402 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 8 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Paddy Mathers: 2.3% from 87 Claiming riders: 6.8%
The read

It is weakest at Carlisle (0% over 52 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 6.8% (n=176, Fair A/E 1.48). Paddy Mathers rode 22% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (2.3%, A/E 0.74). The yard also read well in Class 4 (7.7%, n=52) and off a 15-30-day break (6.5%, n=138). The record read poorly off a 31-60-day break — 0% over 57 runners, 3.5pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record was Snow Dancer (IRE) — 5 wins from 68 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.9%−0.6
n=68 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −12.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%+3.6
n=14 · A/E 2.79 · £1 +1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.5
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%+10.8
n=14 · A/E 6.11 · £1 +68.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.5
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.95 · £1 +2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.8%+3.3
n=176 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +81.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.5
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up 6.8% vs 3.5% · n=176
In Class 4 7.7% vs 3.5% · n=52
Off a 15-30-day break 6.5% vs 3.5% · n=138
Off a 31-60-day break 0% vs 3.5% · n=57
At Carlisle 0% vs 3.5% · n=52
Off a 0-7-day break 0% vs 3.5% · n=41
This filter uses derived form angles computed for 17.7% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 388 11 2.8% −142.50
Chase 9 1 11.1% −5.00
Hurdle 5 2 40% +51.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good to Firm 129 2 1.6% −75.00
Standard (AW) 122 5 4.1% +13.00
Good 56 3 5.4% −14.00
Good to Soft 46 2 4.3% +10.00
Soft 27 1 3.7% −16.00
Heavy 12 1 8.3% −4.50
Firm 10 0 0% −10.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 117 5 4.3% +18.00
Carlisle 52 0 0% −52.00
Hamilton 38 2 5.3% −12.00
Redcar 35 1 2.9% −12.00
Newcastle 29 1 3.4% −21.50
Haydock 29 1 3.4% +12.00
Ayr 19 0 0% −19.00
Beverley 15 0 0% −15.00
Musselburgh 12 1 8.3% +3.00
Catterick 11 0 0% −11.00
Pontefract 9 1 11.1% +4.00
Thirsk 8 0 0% −8.00
Doncaster 7 0 0% −7.00
Sedgefield 3 1 33.3% +38.00
Southwell (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 199 6 3% −49.00
Class 5 124 3 2.4% −64.00
Class 4 52 4 7.7% +30.50
Class 3 12 1 8.3% +1.00
Class 7 11 0 0% −11.00
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 3 1 33.3% 1.46 +1.00
2nd–3rd fav 18 0 0% 0.00 −18.00
4th–6th fav 98 6 6.1% 1.02 −21.50
7th+ in betting 283 7 2.5% 0.97 −58.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Snow Dancer (IRE)from Alan Berry · then John David Riches 68 5 21 29 Jul 12
Carnival Dream (GB)from Ronald Harris 52 1 8 2 Oct 12
Forzarzi (IRE)from Alan Berry · then John David Riches 36 1 8 2 Jan 13
Miacarla (GB)from Alan Berry 32 1 2 26 Oct 10
Colamandis (GB) 30 0 1 6 Jan 13
Running Water (GB)then Alan Berry 27 0 0 14 Aug 12
Indian Giver (GB)then Alan Berry 24 3 10 12 Sep 12
Distant Vision (IRE)from Alan Berry 22 0 5 10 Jul 10
Spoken Words (GB)then Alan Berry 15 0 1 6 Jan 13
Landaho (GB)then Alan Berry 14 0 0 6 Nov 12
Illawalla (GB)then Alan Berry 14 0 0 28 Sep 12
Gougane (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon · then Phil Middleton 12 2 5 6 Sep 12
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Berry (6); 13 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for Alan Berry (7) and John David Riches (2); 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6506222450105
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPaddy Mathers
22% of all rides
2.3% SR · A/E 0.74
RiderRWSR£1
Paddy Mathers 87 2 2.3% −38.50
James Sullivan 57 3 5.3% −10.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2008→
14
Archived wins
£87,533
Prize money
2012
Best season · 4 wins
Snow Dancer (IRE) — Ladbrokes.com Fillies' Handicap Pontefract · Apr 2011 · Class 3
£6,449
Snow Dancer (IRE) — Great Offers At Wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap Wolverhampton (AW) · Nov 2009 · Class 4
£5,181
Snow Dancer (IRE) — Betfred World Cup Bus Handicap Haydock · Jul 2010 · Class 4
£4,533
Notable horses
Snow Dancer (IRE) Indian Giver (GB) Gougane (IRE) Carnival Dream (GB) Forzarzi (IRE) Miacarla (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Desert Style (IRE) 7.4% · 5–68
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,544 runs since 2008 (247 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.7% from 339. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.7% from 232.
Forzando (GB) 2.9% · 2–68
Progeny have won 3.7% of 481 runs since 2008 (49 horses).
Carnival Dancer (GB) 1.9% · 1–52
Progeny have won 5.6% of 337 runs since 2008 (27 horses).
Indesatchel (IRE) 7.9% · 3–38
Progeny have won 8% of 1,391 runs since 2010 (106 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.9% from 171.
Lucky Story (USA) 0% · 0–30
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,554 runs since 2008 (162 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14% from 351. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.5% from 451.
Blue Dakota (IRE) 0% · 0–27
Progeny have won 5% of 100 runs since 2010 (8 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 402 · newest first

The latest 50 of 402 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2008 to 13 October 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
13 Oct 18 Chelmsford City (AW) De Lesseps (USA)J: Nicola Currie Bet In Play At totesport.com HandicapClass 7 · 8f · Standard · 16 ran PU 33/1
28 Sep 18 Newcastle (AW) De Lesseps (USA)J: Faye McManoman Smith Brothers Stores Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 100/1
31 May 18 Wolverhampton (AW) De Lesseps (USA)J: Faye McManoman Contact Us At fclgf.com HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 50/1
06 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Colamandis (GB)J: Victor Santos Win More On Betting At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 100/1
06 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Spoken Words (GB)J: Victor Santos Win More On Betting At bookmakers.co.uk Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 100/1
02 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Idarose (IRE)J: Victor Santos Casino At Coral.co.uk Maiden Fillies' StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 150/1
02 Jan 13 Wolverhampton (AW) Forzarzi (IRE)J: Victor Santos Download Coral.co.uk Mobile App HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 40/1
21 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Spoken Words (GB)J: Victor Santos 32Red Supporting British Racing Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 33/1
21 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Colamandis (GB)J: Victor Santos 32Red Supporting British Racing Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 80/1
15 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Reach For The Sky (IRE)J: Victor Santos 32Red Supporting British Racing Selling StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 100/1
14 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Colamandis (GB)J: Victor Santos 32Red Casino Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 5th 50/1
04 Dec 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Spoken Words (GB)J: Mark Coumbe Download Our iPhone App Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 66/1
17 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Colamandis (GB)J: Robbie Fitzpatrick Stay At The Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8.5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 125/1
16 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Reach For The Sky (IRE)J: Jimmy Quinn 32RedPoker.com HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 66/1
06 Nov 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Landaho (GB)J: Jamie Mackay 32 Bonus At 32Red.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 66/1
20 Oct 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Landaho (GB)J: Joe Fanning 32Red Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 100/1
19 Oct 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Forzarzi (IRE)J: Paul Pickard 32Red Supporting British Racing Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 8th 8/1
12 Oct 12 Wolverhampton (AW) Spoken Words (GB)J: Paul Pickard Stephen And Mandy Robinson Silver Wedding Median Auction Maiden StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 66/1
02 Oct 12 Ayr Carnival Dream (GB)J: Julie Burke Download The BetVictor Spincast App Now HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 11 ran 10th 33/1
02 Oct 12 Ayr Gambino (IRE)J: Neil Farley Champions League Specials At BetVictor NurseryClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tony McWilliams's strike rate?
Tony McWilliams has won 14 of 402 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.5% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony McWilliams do best at?
Hamilton by strike rate: 2 wins from 38 runners (5.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tony McWilliams?
Paddy Mathers, with 87 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2.3%).
What is Tony McWilliams's Fair A/E?
0.86, from 400 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 8 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).