2:10 Leopardstown
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Sovereign Path Handicap at Leopardstown over seven furlongs on good ground looks a typically competitive 20-runner affair at this level. With a strong pace shape anticipated, the race is set up to reward those capable of timing their challenge from off the pace, and the KTB Fit ratings identify a clutch of hold-up performers at the head of the numbers. Excellent Believe heads the KTB Fit scores on 63, closely followed by a pair on 61 and two more on 55, painting a picture of a race where late closers could hold the key if the anticipated pace collapse materialises.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Dorset and Benevento, while Mirsky can also go forward. This should ensure a genuine test early on, with the likelihood of the leaders folding late in the straight. That sets up a race that will favour horses with the ability to come from off the pace, and the key question is whether any of the prominent runners can withstand the late charge of the hold-up brigade on this good ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Excellent Believe KTB Selection63/100
Excellent Believe is the KTB Selection and tops the KTB Fit ratings on 63. A 4-year-old with placed form on his last visit to this track, he has two wins from five starts on good ground and is effective when held up, usually producing his effort late. Stephen Thorne has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.91, while Oisin Murphy brings a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76. His recent form of 2-3300 suggests he remains competitive at this level, and with the strong pace likely to play to his strengths he is well drawn in stall 4 to deliver his challenge.
-
2Andab61/100
Andab carries a KTB Fit rating of 61 and arrives with consistent form figures of 232375. This 3-year-old is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late, which should suit the expected pace. Joseph Patrick O'Brien and J M Sheridan combine with a 17% strike rate from 204 runners and an A/E of 1.02, while the trainer himself has a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.89. The jockey has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.8, and the colt has one win and three places from five starts on good ground. Lacking course form, he remains an interesting contender from stall 20.
-
3Dorset61/100
Dorset also rates 61 on KTB Fit and represents the powerful combination of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. The 3-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could be a double-edged sword given the strong pace forecast. He has won one of his two starts at this course, boasts a 1-3 record on good ground with two places, and the trainer has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.88 while Moore is even stronger on 33% with an A/E of 0.9 from 248 rides. His recent form of 894007 is modest but the ability to lead could see him take a prominent position in a race that may collapse late.
-
4Vafortino55/100
Vafortino is rated 55 on KTB Fit and brings solid course credentials as a previous winner here from two starts. The 8-year-old is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late, aligning well with the anticipated race shape. He has four wins from 14 starts on good ground with six places, and pairs with James Doyle who has a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown though an A/E of 0.57. Charlie Fellowes has no previous Leopardstown record but an overall 11% strike rate from 404 runs. Recent form of 507893 is unremarkable yet his track record cannot be ignored from draw 8.
-
5Gleneagle Bay55/100
Gleneagle Bay completes the principals with a KTB Fit of 55. This 6-year-old shares the same trainer as the selection in Stephen Thorne, who has a 9% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91. Colin Keane takes the ride with a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown and an A/E of 0.84 from 893 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has one win from five on good with two places, and has shown placed form over two runs here without winning. His recent form of 045166 keeps him in the mix, and the low draw of 1 could prove advantageous if he can weave through the field.
-
6Benevento55/100
Benevento has a KTB Fit of 55 and tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence. A 4-year-old with three wins from eight on good ground and four places, he has no course form and the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from 14 runs.
-
7Fort Vega53/100
Fort Vega is rated 53 on KTB Fit, is usually held up, and runs in first-time headgear. The 6-year-old has been placed twice at this course without winning, has two wins from nine on good with six places, and the trainer has a 7% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.84.
-
8L L Koulsty53/100
L L Koulsty carries a KTB Fit of 53, is a 3-year-old usually held up, and has recent winning form. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from 21 runs, while the 5lb claimer has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.12; the colt has one win from three on good with two places but was only fifth on his sole course start.
-
9Sindagan53/100
Sindagan is rated 53 on KTB Fit and is usually held up with high confidence. This 3-year-old is competitive on good ground without winning and the trainer has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.74; he has no course form on record.
-
10Oro Blanco52/100
Oro Blanco has a KTB Fit of 52 and is usually held up. The 3-year-old has two wins from three on good with three places overall, and the trainer has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.83, though he has no course form.
-
11Rahmi51/100
Rahmi is rated 51 on KTB Fit, is usually held up, and has won here from two starts. The 7-year-old has one win from 15 on good with five places, and the trainer has a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.74.
-
12Collecting Coin50/100
Collecting Coin rates 50 on KTB Fit and is usually held up. The 4-year-old has one win from five on good with two places, the trainer has no Leopardstown record, and he has no course form on record.
-
13Carnival Of Light50/100
Carnival Of Light has a KTB Fit of 50 and usually races prominently though with limited evidence. The 4-year-old has no win or place from two runs on good, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from two runs, and he has no course form.
-
14Dark Viper48/100
Dark Viper is rated 48 on KTB Fit, is usually held up, and has won three times from six starts at this course. The 5-year-old has two wins from nine on good with four places, and the trainer has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.83.
-
15Krasimir48/100
Krasimir carries a KTB Fit of 48 and is usually held up. This 3-year-old is competitive on good ground without a win, has been placed once at the course, and the trainer has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.81.
-
16Mirsky47/100
Mirsky rates 47 on KTB Fit and tends to make the running or race on the pace. The 7-year-old is competitive on good ground without winning and the trainer has a 15% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.85; he has no course form.
-
17Howd'yadoit46/100
Howd'yadoit has a KTB Fit of 46, is usually held up, and is a 3-year-old with one win from seven on good and three places. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.81, though the horse has no course form.
-
18Victory Tip46/100
Victory Tip is rated 46 on KTB Fit and is usually held up. This 3-year-old is competitive on good ground without winning, was ninth on his only start at the course, and the trainer has an 8% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.74.
-
19Booyea43/100
Booyea has a KTB Fit of 43, is usually held up, and has been placed at this course from four starts without winning. The 6-year-old has three wins from 11 on good with six places, though the trainer has just a 1% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.19.
-
20Temperance39/100
Temperance is the lowest rated on KTB Fit at 39 and runs in first-time headgear. The 4-year-old is usually held up, has one win from 10 on good with one place, was eighth on his only course start, and the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from three runs.
KTB verdict
Excellent Believe is the KTB Selection and looks to have the ideal profile for this race. Rated top on KTB Fit, he is effective when held up in races with a strong pace, has shown placed form at the track, and handles good ground. The combination of draw, run-style and the expected pace collapse gives him every chance of timing things right. His main dangers are the other hold-up types Andab and Vafortino, both of whom have strong KTB Fit numbers and should relish the shape, while Dorset's ability to get an uncontested lead cannot be ruled out despite the pace concerns.
KTB Selection Excellent Believe
This is the narrative read of the 2:10 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Dorset, Benevento and Mirsky are the runners noted as tending to make the running or race prominently.
How many hold-up horses feature among the top five on KTB Fit?
Four of the top five principals are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late: Excellent Believe, Andab, Vafortino and Gleneagle Bay.
Which horse has the strongest course record in the field?
Dark Viper has won three times from six starts at Leopardstown.
Which trainer and jockey combination has the highest strike rate at Leopardstown in this race?
A P O'Brien and Ryan Moore on Dorset have a 27% strike rate from 2522 runners with an A/E of 0.91.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Fort Vega and Temperance are both running in first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies