4:47 Leicester
This Class 3 handicap over 7f at Leicester on good to soft ground brings together an 18-strong field of largely fair performers, several of whom are unproven on the surface. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Flight Control heading the numbers on 67 despite uncertainties around the wide draw and the ground. Most of the field are hold-up types, which aligns with the expectation that the race will be run at a strong pace and could collapse late.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strong and confidence in that view is high. Sergeant Wilko and Foreseen are both inclined to race on the pace or make the running, while Hungarian likes to race prominently, and that early speed should ensure a genuine test. The key question is whether the leaders can sustain the gallop or whether the race will fall apart late, in which case the numerous hold-up performers will be well placed to strike from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Flight Control KTB Selection67/100
Flight Control is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win over this trip. He arrives off an official rating of 88 having posted recent form figures of 523142 and is dropping in class today. The Kevin and Lauren Frost yard has a 33% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 2.03 from three runs, though the small sample gives little guidance, while Rossa Ryan has a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.93 from 190 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 12 which is wide on this track. He has no previous runs on good to soft ground and no course form on record, both of which add uncertainty.
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2English Time61/100
English Time is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form including a win and a second from his last three starts, shown by his figures of 8-421. He steps up in class off an official rating of 85 but has already won over this trip and drops back to 7f. The Harry Charlton yard is in excellent form at Leicester with a 56% strike rate and A/E of 1.63 from nine runs, while Lewis Edmunds has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.75 from 120 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 10 which is a potential negative on this track. He has no previous runs on good to soft ground and no course form on record.
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3Kodi Lion59/100
Kodi Lion is a useful performer who has won over today's 7f trip in the past and arrives off an official rating of 91 with recent form figures of 5-9915. He is stepping back up in trip after his last run over 6f. The Michael Appleby yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 0.86 from 392 runs, while Cieren Fallon is riding here for the first time and the trainer-jockey combination shows 8/114 (7%) with an A/E of 0.56. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 2. He has no previous runs on good to soft ground and no course form on record.
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4Kisskodi59/100
Kisskodi is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and on this ground, with a record of one win from two starts on good to soft. He has course experience in his favour too having scored here from two runs and arrives off an official rating of 85 with recent form figures of -35185. The Harry Eustace yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 1.26 from 27 runs, while George Wood has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.77 from 143 rides and the trainer-jockey combination shows 19/249 (8%) with an A/E of 0.62. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7.
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5Raging Raj58/100
Raging Raj is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two placings from his last six starts, shown by his figures of 315126. He is dropping in class off an official rating of 86 and has shown up well at Leicester, finishing second and fourth on his two visits, while he is proven at this trip. The Michael Herrington yard has an 18% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 1.18 from 40 runs and the trainer-jockey combination with David Probert shows 13/59 (22%) with an A/E of 1.55. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 13. He has never tackled good to soft ground, so that remains an unknown.
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6Sergeant Wilko57/100
Sergeant Wilko is a fair performer who has won here from two starts and holds a solid record on good to soft with three wins and a further placing from six runs. He steps up to 7f for the first time today after a string of consistent placed efforts at 6f, which poses a fresh question at this trip, though he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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7One Smack Mac57/100
One Smack Mac is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with five runs producing no better than ninth. He drops back from a mile to a trip where he has placed once before while the first-time headgear is another unknown, though the yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Leicester from a big sample and he is usually held up.
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8Ata Rangi56/100
Ata Rangi is a fair performer who has won three times over today's trip from eight attempts. Recent form is patchy with a best of fourth on his latest start and he has failed to place in two runs on good to soft ground, while the wide draw in stall 18 adds another question and he is usually held up.
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9God of War55/100
God of War is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time, his recent form of 405744 showing steady but unspectacular efforts. He steps up to 7f for the first time since recording two wins at the trip earlier in his career and has failed to place in two runs on good to soft, though the yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Leicester from 33 runs and he is usually held up.
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10Humam55/100
Humam is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He has won at this trip in the past yet showed little on his two attempts on good to soft ground, while the yard holds a solid 11% strike rate at Leicester from a large sample and he is usually held up.
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11Morte Point53/100
Morte Point is a fair handicapper who has dropped to a workable mark after a string of modest efforts. He has run well here before when second on his only visit and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground, though the wide draw in stall 15 adds a negative and he is usually held up.
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12Our Havana52/100
Our Havana is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 18 starts but arrives in modest form having been beaten 12 lengths or more on his last two starts. He has placed once from four runs on good to soft ground and is entitled to be competitive on that evidence, while the yard has a 9% strike rate from 11 runs at Leicester and he is usually held up.
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13Astrazar52/100
Astrazar is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while. He drops back to 7f having scored twice at the trip earlier in his career, though his only run on good to soft produced no reward, while the trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate here from 87 runs and he is usually held up.
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14Dapper Guest48/100
Dapper Guest is a fair performer who has won five times over this trip but looks exposed after 26 runs in the last year. He has run well on good to soft ground with two wins from four starts yet showed little when finishing 14th on his only previous visit to Leicester, while the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds a further negative and he is usually held up.
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15Hungarian48/100
Hungarian is a fair 3yo with a mixed record this year but has won twice at this trip from five attempts. He has shown some ability on good to soft though his sole run on the surface brought no win or place, while the yard has a 0% strike rate from 12 runs at Leicester and he usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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16Foreseen45/100
Foreseen is a fair handicapper with a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip from three attempts. He has placed once from two starts on good to soft ground and is drawn in stall 1, though he has never run at Leicester before, while the trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 697 runs and he tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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17Righthere Rightnow41/100
Righthere Rightnow is a fair performer who has been out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won over before while making his first start at Leicester, while the trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here and the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground and he is usually held up.
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18Daydreama39/100
Daydreama is a fair performer who has been out of form for a while with a string of poor efforts. She drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip before and has shown some ability on good to soft ground, while the trainer has a modest 9% strike rate at Leicester from a big sample and she is usually held up.
KTB verdict
The strong pace should play into the hands of those capable of producing their effort late, and the KTB Selection is Flight Control. He is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win over this trip and is dropping in class, though the wide draw and lack of experience on good to soft add uncertainty. His trainer's small Leicester sample gives little guidance yet the overall profile still makes him the one to beat. The main dangers are English Time, who benefits from a yard in excellent form at the track, and Kisskodi, who brings course-and-distance winning form and proven ability on the ground.
KTB Selection Flight Control
This is the narrative read of the 4:47 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leicester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leicester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
Kisskodi has won over this trip and on this ground and has scored here from two runs.
How does the Leicester record of the trainer of English Time compare to others in the field?
The Harry Charlton yard has a 56% strike rate at Leicester with an A/E of 1.63 from nine runs.
Which runners are proven on good to soft ground?
Kisskodi has one win from two on good to soft, Sergeant Wilko has three wins from six on good to soft, Morte Point has placed once from three on good to soft, Our Havana has placed once from four on good to soft, Dapper Guest has two wins from four on good to soft, Hungarian has shown some ability on good to soft, Foreseen has placed once from two on good to soft, and Daydreama has placed once from four on good to soft.
Who are the front-runners or prominent runners in the field?
Sergeant Wilko tends to make the running or race on the pace, Foreseen tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Hungarian usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Which horse is dropping in class and has shown up well at Leicester before?
Raging Raj is dropping in class, has shown up well at Leicester finishing second and fourth on his two visits, and the trainer has an 18% strike rate here.
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