What is Adrian Murray's strike rate?

Adrian Murray has won 125 of 1,619 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Murray do best at?

Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 32 wins from 299 runners (10.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian Murray?

David Egan, with 147 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (14.3%).

Is Adrian Murray in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Adrian Murray's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 1,618 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Murray

1,619 runners in the lifetime window · 236 individual horses

As at 31 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 8 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

125–1,619

Wins / Runs

7.7%

Strike rate

n=1,619

405 (25%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=1,618 · 0.86 incl. margin

−142.44

£1 level stake

n=1,619 at SP · −8.8%

£3.71m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06). New recruits from other yards win at 11% first time out (64 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,619 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 31 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr Fresh horses: 9% 43.1% when favourite David Egan: 14.3% from 147 New recruits: 10.9% Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 10.9% (n=64, Fair A/E 1.94), but a horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=89, Fair A/E 0.57). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 9% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.29 and +43.36 to a £1 stake over 345 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 4.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.72 and −297.75 to a £1 stake over 561 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. David Egan rides 9% of the entries and beats the yard's average (14.3% vs 7.7%, A/E 1.28) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 1.3% over 79 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. 14 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes at Curragh (Sep 2025, £236,000). The stable star of the record: Arizona Blaze (GB) — 6 wins from 16 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9%+1.3

n=345 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +43.36

New recruits · first run for the yard

10.9%+3.2

n=64 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +48.25

Debutants · first career start

7.5%−0.2

n=173 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −17.47

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.2%−5.5

n=89 · A/E 0.57 · £1 +46.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5%−2.7

n=60 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −38.00

When favourite

43.1%

n=72 · A/E 1.37 · £1 +7.96

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.1%−3.6

n=561 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −297.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

6.8%−0.9

n=205 · A/E 1.04 · £1 +55.45

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With David Egan 14.3% vs 7.7% · n=147

With C&D winners 15.2% vs 7.7% · n=79

In NH Flat races 1.3% vs 7.7% · n=79

With Colin Keane 14.9% vs 7.7% · n=47

With first-time headgear 2.2% vs 7.7% · n=89

With Robson Aguiar 1.8% vs 7.7% · n=57

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 962 80 8.3% −18.18

Hurdle 472 36 7.6% +10.09

Chase 106 8 7.5% −59.85

NH Flat 79 1 1.3% −74.50

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 469 45 9.6% +186.05

Soft 397 24 6% −114.25

Standard (AW) 309 34 11% −130.03

Heavy 188 9 4.8% −81.25

Good to Soft 164 9 5.5% −75.96

Good to Firm 92 4 4.3% +73.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Dundalk (AW) 299 32 10.7% −136.78

Curragh 155 15 9.7% −53.97

Naas 103 4 3.9% −57.88

Navan 101 5 5% −53.50

Kilbeggan 90 5 5.6% −58.10

Gowran Park 73 5 6.8% −51.75

Fairyhouse 70 7 10% +110.50

Leopardstown 68 4 5.9% +8.50

Punchestown 62 4 6.5% −21.50

Cork 61 6 9.8% −2.75

Roscommon 51 4 7.8% +76.62

Ballinrobe 48 3 6.3% −28.25

Down Royal 45 2 4.4% −39.00

Galway 38 3 7.9% +15.75

Tipperary 36 3 8.3% +62.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 205 14 6.8% +55.45

Class 4 12 1 8.3% +89.00

Class 2 10 1 10% −6.25

Class 6 10 2 20% +0.00

Class 5 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 96 38 39.6% 1.39 +10.18

2nd–3rd fav 247 43 17.4% 1.19 −8.12

4th–6th fav 483 28 5.8% 0.83 −155.50

7th+ in betting 793 16 2% 0.77 +11.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 379 25 6.6% +7.62

2m1f – 2m4f 327 26 8% −26.50

1m5f – 2m 261 17 6.5% −31.16

1m – 1m1f 203 17 8.4% −63.17

1m2f – 1m4f 168 16 9.5% −19.38

Under 6f 159 18 11.3% +59.25

2m5f – 3m 108 4 3.7% −61.50

Over 3m 14 2 14.3% −7.60

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 4 1 25% +0.50

2009 20 1 5% −15.50

2010 30 4 13.3% +96.72

2011 34 3 8.8% −10.00

2012 27 3 11.1% −18.85

2013 33 0 0% −33.00

2014 19 1 5.3% +22.00

2015 22 0 0% −22.00

2016 43 2 4.7% −9.00

2017 71 5 7% −31.50

2018 117 1 0.9% −111.50

2019 81 8 9.9% −29.25

2020 57 4 7% +48.00

2021 81 3 3.7% −52.00

2022 160 13 8.1% +86.50

2023 191 8 4.2% +8.58

2024 295 23 7.8% −43.31

2025 307 42 13.7% −21.95

2026 27 3 11.1% −6.88

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 680 51 7.5% −102.75

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 498 32 6.4% +47.50

11-13 runners 389 35 9% −67.06

8-10 runners 285 16 5.6% −75.10

17+ runners 270 15 5.6% −26.90

5-7 runners 160 22 13.8% −15.54

2-4 runners 17 5 29.4% −5.34

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Sargent Lightfoot (IRE) 36 4 16 13 Jul 25

Billy's Angel (IRE)then Amy Murphy 29 3 7 17 Sep 20

Sand Castle (IRE) 28 1 6 13 Jul 24

Bilbo Bagins (IRE)then R P Burns 28 3 8 23 Apr 21

Gold Speed (IRE) 25 4 10 31 May 25

Napoleon Blue (IRE)then R P Burns 25 1 9 6 Aug 22

Vale Of Glory (IRE)from Mark Fahey 22 2 6 4 Aug 25

Cass Bligh (IRE) 22 4 13 9 Feb 13

She's Commanche (IRE) 21 2 6 30 May 23

My Newbrook Rose (IRE) 21 2 6 24 May 22

Special Angel (IRE) 19 1 4 29 Nov 24

Beauty Bella (IRE)then Jack W Davison 19 1 6 3 Sep 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 236 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 9 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Dominic Ffrench Davis (2) and George Boughey (2); 46 had their first archived run for this yard.

25 have since run for another yard, most often for Robson De Aguiar (7) and R P Burns (3); 35 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 1

Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

6121310541089673

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDavid Egan

9% of all rides
14.3% SR · A/E 1.28

RiderRWSR£1

David Egan 147 21 14.3% −13.66

Sean Flanagan 107 11 10.3% −16.38

Eoin G Kelly 80 4 5% −42.50

Seamie Heffernan 71 6 8.5% +163.25

Robert Whearty 67 3 4.5% −16.00

Robson Aguiar 57 1 1.8% −36.00

Jack Cleary 51 1 2% −41.00

A E Lynch 48 1 2.1% −7.00

Colin Keane 47 7 14.9% −11.88

Gary Halpin 45 1 2.2% −40.50

W J Lee 35 5 14.3% −17.45

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

125

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£3.71m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 42 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Arizona Blaze (GB) — Bar One Racing Flying Five Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Sep 2025 · Group 1

£236,000

Power Blue (IRE) — Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Aug 2025 · Group 1

£206,500

Bucanero Fuerte (GB) — Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) Curragh · Aug 2023 · Group 1

£177,000

Notable horses

Arizona Blaze (GB) Bucanero Fuerte (GB) Valiant Force (USA) Sargent Lightfoot (IRE) Gold Speed (IRE) Cass Bligh (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Ardad (IRE) 4.3% · 3–69

Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,535 runs since 2008 (351 horses).

Mehmas (IRE) 5.6% · 3–54

Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,186 runs since 2008 (751 horses).

Jeremy (USA) 11.1% · 4–36

Progeny have won 11.2% of 6,724 runs since 2008 (425 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.5% from 664. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 16.3% from 147. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.8% from 743.

Morpheus (GB) 2.9% · 1–34

Progeny have won 7.1% of 1,671 runs since 2008 (128 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.9% from 540. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 305. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 2.7% from 147.

Inns Of Court (IRE) 0% · 0–31

Progeny have won 9.4% of 2,244 runs since 2008 (232 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.7% from 150.

Lord Americo (IRE) 12.9% · 4–31

Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,189 runs since 2008 (237 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,623 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,623 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 March 2007 to 23 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

23 Oct 26 Sligo (IRE) Geashill Poet (IRE)J: Mr J P Collins John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Yielding · 9 ran PU 250/1

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Chanceitlucky (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Fairyhouse Racecourse Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 14 ran 1st 15/2

05 Oct 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Geashill Poet (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 11th 300/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Telegram Sam (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Athleague Maiden Hurdle15.5f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 1st 8/13F

25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Euro Maker (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 12th 5/1

24 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Calamint (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 17 ran 9th 150/1

07 Sep 26 Galway (IRE) Euro Maker (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Anglo Printers Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 3rd 6/1

05 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Calamint (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Return Of The Jumps At Navan Racecourse September 19th Handicap (Div I)10f · Good · 21 ran 11th 10/1

03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Telegram Sam (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Maiden Hurdle (Div II)16f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 4/1

03 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Geashill Poet (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Maiden Hurdle (Div I)16f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 10th 100/1

24 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Chanceitlucky (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Jerry McDonnell Memorial Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 12th 9/2

10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Chanceitlucky (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Tim Kelly Group Handicap Hurdle22.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 20/1

10 Aug 26 Ballinrobe (IRE) Euro Maker (IRE)J: Eoghan Finegan Broderick's Electric Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 15 ran 1st 9/1

08 Aug 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Calamint (IRE)J: Joshua Halford Well Of Moate Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 11 ran 5th 25/1

02 Aug 26 Galway (IRE) Barrys Spirit (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle16.5f · Good · 17 ran 10th 40/1

27 May 26 Wexford Euro Maker (IRE)J: Sean Flanagan Treo Eile Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)17f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 9th 11/2

25 May 26 Ballinrobe Telegram Sam (IRE)J: Mr J P O'Rourke McHale Orbital Flat Race16.5f · Good · 11 ran 4th 22/1

15 May 26 Kilbeggan Jurassic Bob (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Racing Again May 31st (Pro/Am) Flat Race18.5f · Good · 11 ran 8th 9/1

09 May 26 Killarney My Mary Ellen (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Donie Sheahan Memorial Irish EBF Mares Beginners Chase21f · Good To Yielding · 10 ran PU 300/1

08 May 26 Ballinrobe Calamint (IRE)J: Yudish Geerdharry McGrath Limestone Works Handicap (0-60)9.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 15/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adrian Murray's strike rate?: Adrian Murray has won 125 of 1,619 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.7% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Murray do best at?: Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 32 wins from 299 runners (10.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Murray?: David Egan, with 147 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (14.3%).
Is Adrian Murray in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adrian Murray's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 1,618 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.