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Trainer profile

James Leavy

276 runners in the lifetime window · 39 individual horses
As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Nov 2023
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–276
Wins / Runs
4.3%
Strike rate
n=276
42 (15%)
Placed
0.76
Fair A/E
n=276 · 0.58 incl. margin
−194.54
£1 level stake
n=276 at SP · −70.5%
£142k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.76).

Deterministic profile computed from 276 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Gary Carroll: 3.8% from 52
The read

It is weakest at Leopardstown (0% over 37 runners) — the widest gap in the record. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.9% strike, Fair A/E 0.57 and −113.79 to a £1 stake over 136 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Gary Carroll rides 19% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (3.8%, A/E 0.70). The yard also reads well in NH Flat races (16.7%, n=36) and on Good to Soft going (9.4%, n=32). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 1.1% over 92 runners, 3.2pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−1.7
n=76 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −63.62
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
8%+3.7
n=25 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −16.67
First-time headgear · true-first definition
22.2%+17.9
n=18 · A/E 3.67 · £1 +16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.3
n=12 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −12.00
When favourite
50%
n=6 · A/E 2.32 · £1 +4.88
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.9%−1.4
n=136 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −113.79
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In NH Flat races 16.7% vs 4.3% · n=36
On Good to Soft going 9.4% vs 4.3% · n=32
At Leopardstown 0% vs 4.3% · n=37
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 1.1% vs 4.3% · n=92
Over 1m5f – 2m 7.2% vs 4.3% · n=97
At Curragh 1.6% vs 4.3% · n=61
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 215 6 2.8% −161.00
NH Flat 36 6 16.7% −8.54
Hurdle 25 0 0% −25.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 80 2 2.5% −73.12
Good 55 3 5.5% −37.25
Standard (AW) 41 1 2.4% −36.50
Heavy 37 2 5.4% −17.67
Good to Soft 32 3 9.4% −4.00
Good to Firm 29 1 3.4% −24.00
Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Curragh 61 1 1.6% −46.00
Dundalk (AW) 41 1 2.4% −36.50
Leopardstown 37 0 0% −37.00
Galway 27 1 3.7% −22.50
Gowran Park 19 2 10.5% −6.00
Navan 11 0 0% −11.00
Fairyhouse 10 1 10% −6.25
Limerick 9 2 22.2% −2.29
Naas 8 0 0% −8.00
Roscommon 7 0 0% −7.00
Down Royal 7 2 28.6% +12.00
Punchestown 6 0 0% −6.00
Listowel 6 0 0% −6.00
Killarney 4 1 25% +6.00
Cheltenham 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 9 0 0% −9.00
Class 6 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 9 3 33.3% 1.78 +1.88
2nd–3rd fav 33 5 15.2% 1.10 −7.42
4th–6th fav 63 3 4.8% 0.76 −33.00
7th+ in betting 171 1 0.6% 0.18 −156.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Imply (GB)from John Gosden 25 1 3 28 Aug 11
Screen Diva (GB) 20 0 0 10 Jul 11
Abroad (GB) 20 2 6 29 Dec 10
Space Race (GB)then Mrs John Harrington 16 1 3 12 Nov 10
Akimbo (USA)from Sir Henry Cecil 16 0 4 19 Apr 09
Ebazziyr (IRE) 14 2 4 24 Oct 15
Shayrazan (IRE) 14 1 3 11 Oct 10
Sophocles (GB) 14 1 1 5 Nov 09
Massyoun (FR) 12 0 3 18 Mar 13
Nebulla (GB)from John M Oxx 8 0 0 3 Sep 22
Be My Sea (IRE)then Tony Carroll 8 0 2 28 Dec 15
One Goal (IRE) 7 0 0 2 Oct 15
All 39 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 39 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from A P O'Brien (2) and Thomas Mullins (2); 30 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Eugene M O'Sullivan (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000410007731115
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderGary Carroll
19% of all rides
3.8% SR · A/E 0.70
RiderRWSR£1
Gary Carroll 52 2 3.8% −36.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
25
Archived wins
£327k
Prize money
2007
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Shayrazan (IRE) — boylesports.com Handicap (Premier Handicap) Curragh (IRE) · May 2006
£32,550
Imply (GB) — Bank Of Scotland (Ireland) Handicap (60-100) Curragh · Sep 2008
£16,926
Shayrazan (IRE) — Golf Open Week At Gowran Park Handicap (60-100) Gowran Park · Aug 2008
£16,275
Notable horses
Shayrazan (IRE) Sophocles (GB) Volcan Magique (IRE) Abroad (GB) Ebazziyr (IRE) Shaykhan (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Beat Hollow (GB) 4% · 1–25
Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,034 runs since 2008 (412 horses).
Daylami (IRE) 0% · 0–21
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,508 runs since 2008 (253 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 109.
Halling (USA) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 11% of 6,095 runs since 2008 (409 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.8% from 187.
Kingmambo (USA) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 14.5% of 1,093 runs since 2008 (137 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 10.9% from 138. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 18.1% from 243.
Singspiel (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 12% of 4,376 runs since 2008 (378 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 8.5% from 118.
Cape Cross (IRE) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 509 · newest first

The latest 50 of 509 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 January 2005 to 29 November 2023.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Nov 23 Dundalk (AW) Twotwo And Two (FR)J: Seamie Heffernan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 40/1
15 Nov 23 Dundalk (AW) Twotwo And Two (FR)J: Dean Curran View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Median Auction Maiden (Div 1)7f · Standard · 14 ran 8th 66/1
30 Jun 23 Curragh Saxe Coburg (IRE)J: Calum Hogan Silken Thomas & Lock 13 Apprentice Derby12f · Good · 18 ran 17th 40/1
24 Jun 23 Limerick Delta Dawn (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Private Suites At Limerick Races Handicap (50-80)12.5f · Yielding · 8 ran 8th 100/1
22 Jun 23 Leopardstown Saxe Coburg (IRE)J: Mr Pat Taaffe Leopardstown Annual Members (Q.R.) Maiden15f · Good · 17 ran 7th 80/1
16 Jun 23 Fairyhouse Delta Dawn (IRE)J: Gary Halpin La Bucca Restaurants Handicap (50-85)13.5f · Good · 12 ran 10th 80/1
26 Oct 22 Curragh Greek Gladiator (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Extra Place Races At Novibet Handicap14f · Soft To Heavy · 23 ran 23rd 100/1
13 Oct 22 Curragh Allez Sea (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Hollywoodbets Live In Ireland Maiden12f · Yielding · 15 ran SU 66/1
03 Sep 22 Navan Nebulla (GB)J: Dean Curran Gormanlough Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 1)10f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 13th 33/1
31 Aug 22 Gowran Park Nebulla (GB)J: Dean Curran Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 2)8f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 8th 28/1
21 Aug 22 Naas Nebulla (GB)J: Dean Curran Junior Einsteins Apprentice Handicap10f · Good · 13 ran 12th 66/1
29 Jul 22 Galway Greek Gladiator (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Hop House 13 Handicap (50-75)14f · Soft · 15 ran 14th 125/1
16 Jul 22 Curragh Delta Dawn (IRE)J: Annalise Cullen Kildare Village Ladies Derby Handicap12f · Good · 17 ran 17th 100/1
20 Apr 22 Bellewstown Anorak (IRE)J: Ronan Whelan Ornan Kitchens Maiden12f · Good · 11 ran 8th 250/1
13 Apr 22 Gowran Park Anorak (IRE)J: Ben Coen Racing Again May 4th Maiden (Div 1)9.5f · Yielding To Soft · 17 ran 15th 150/1
16 Feb 22 Dundalk (AW) Anorak (IRE)J: Gary Carroll Find Us On Facebook At dundalkstadium Maiden8f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 80/1
11 Feb 22 Dundalk (AW) Delta Dawn (IRE)J: Danny Sheehy Irishinjuredjockeys.com Maiden12f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 50/1
09 Nov 18 Dundalk (AW) Nebulla (GB)J: Dean Curran Crowne Plaza Leading Jockey & Trainer Championship Apprentice Handicap12f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 14/1
04 Nov 18 Naas Nebulla (GB)J: Dean Curran Bet At Toals.com Handicap10f · Yielding · 16 ran 14th 20/1
06 Apr 18 Dundalk (AW) Mistamel (IRE)J: Ross Coakley Print Express Handicap (45-70)10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 40/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is James Leavy's strike rate?
James Leavy has won 12 of 276 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Leavy do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 41 runners (2.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Leavy?
Gary Carroll, with 52 runners since 2008 — 19% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (3.8%).
What is James Leavy's Fair A/E?
0.76, from 276 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 2 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).